EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 30: English Premier League

March 28, 2024

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 30 of the 2023-24 season, starting on 3/30/2024. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We're back with a full set of fixtures following the international break and FA Cup action. The weekend ends with a huge top-of-the-table clash and is quickly followed by another full set of midweek fixtures. The quick turnaround makes FPL choices considerably more important and predictions more difficult. It also means we'll have abbreviated previews over the next week.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Saturday, March 30, 2024

Newcastle United (-120) vs. West Ham United (+290) - 8:30 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Newcastle United 3 – 2 West Ham United

Newcastle's been scoring goals for fun at home with 11 in their last four games at St. James' Park. West Ham have conceded eight in their last four away games. West Ham's scored two or more in eight of their 14 away games. Goals should be the order of business to get the weekend underway.

Fantasy Player Pick: Anthony Gordon

Gordon has a goal involvement in each of his last four home games. He's got a considerably better record at home, much like Newcastle has. Gordon's 130 FPL points lead the team and he should be full of confidence after winning his first full England cap.

Bournemouth (+115) vs. Everton (+225) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 – 0 Everton

Bournemouth have faced six of the current bottom half. They have three wins and three draws in those games. Everton's failed to score in four of their last five away games. Although I fancy the home win, Bournemouth's struggled in some games they are expected to win. A low-scoring affair looks likely and at plus odds, is too juicy to turn down.

Fantasy Player Pick: Dominic Solanke

Solanke caused FPL heartbreak to over 2 million managers on matchday 29. After blanking in his first game, he scored eight points against Luton. Still, an eight-point haul against the two leakiest defenses wasn't ideal. After frustrating so many FPL managers, he's bound to return a solid points haul this weekend.

Can you hear that? 👂

It's the sound of 2,057,738 Solanke captainers and 211,203 Triple Captainers rejoicing 🎉#FPL #BOULUT https://t.co/BZW3kycm8A

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) March 13, 2024

Chelsea (-340) vs. Burnley (+800) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Chelsea 3 – 0 Burnley

Chelsea have a modest four-game unbeaten run in the league. They've also won five of their last six home EPL games. Burnley's victory against Brentford ended a ten-game winless streak. Playing against ten men for over 80 minutes helped. They've conceded 14 goals in their last five away games. A home win looks like the only safe option.

Fantasy Player Pick: Cole Palmer

As mentioned, Burnley's been leaking goals away from home recently. Palmer scored 12 points in the reverse fixture and a similar return this week wouldn’t be a surprise. He's a great captain option and with Chelsea having more games left to play than any other team (11), should be picked up for the run-in.

Nottingham Forest (+125) vs. Crystal Palace (+225) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 1 Crystal Palace

Forest's points deduction has left them in the relegation zone (pending an appeal). They have also picked up just one point from their last four games. Palace have played four games since Oliver Glasner took over. Three of those games saw both teams score. That has happened in nine of Forest's 14 home games. I'm expecting the same again.

BREAKING: Nottingham Forest have appealed their four-point deduction for breaching the Premier League’s Profit & Sustainability Rules (PSR). pic.twitter.com/nqHZoJ52lq

— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) March 25, 2024

Fantasy Player Pick: Eberechi Eze

Eze has struggled for fitness this season. When healthy, he's been excellent. Eze's 4.1 FPL points per game ranks 27th overall and he's now only on 3.0% of teams. Expect that to increase in the coming weeks, especially with two fantasy-friendly fixtures this week.

Sheffield United (+380) vs. Fulham (-140) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 – 2 Fulham

Sheffield United have the worst home record in the league. Fulham have the third-worst away record in the league. Fulham's failed to keep a clean sheet in their last ten away games. Sheffield United have scored in four of their five home games against sides in the bottom half of the table. An away win is likely but the odds don't reflect Fulham's away struggles. I expect both teams to score a goal in this one and that's my pick.

Fantasy Player Pick: Rodrigo Muniz

Rodrigo Muniz has been a popular addition in FPL recently. He's scored seven goals with one assist in his last seven games. However, it's worth noting that only one return has been away from home and he's blanked in Fulham's last two games away from Craven Cottage. This is an ideal opponent but be cautious starting him in away games.

No forward has scored more goals in the last seven Gameweeks than Rodrigo Muniz 👏

Will you be bringing in the Fulham man for Gameweek 30? 🏡#FPL pic.twitter.com/lU6u7Tfh05

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) March 19, 2024

Tottenham Hotspur (-475) vs. Luton Town (+950) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 3 – 1 Luton Town

Tottenham's goalscoring streak was ended a fortnight ago. They've scored at least two goals in six of their last seven home games. However, they've not kept a clean sheet in their last ten home EPL games. Luton haven't kept a clean sheet on their travels this season. But have scored in their last seven away games. Both teams to score in this game has the most appeal.

Fantasy Player Pick: Brennan Johnson

Johnson has quietly been having a good run at home. He's scored two goals and has five assists in his last six home games. That's having only started two of the games. He's not guaranteed to start so isn't an ideal FPL option. If he does start, Johnson will make a great DFS play this week.

Aston Villa (-160) vs. Wolves (+380) - 1:30 p.m. EDT

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 2 Wolves

Villa's dominance at home has been lacking lately. They've lost three of their last four home games and conceded 13 goals in the last five. Wolves have had an impressive season to date but remain unpredictable. That being said, there's been at least three goals in nine of their last ten away games. Three or more goals in this one look likely.

Fantasy Player Pick: Douglas Luiz

Luiz has nine goals and five assists this season. All nine goals have come at home (along with two assists). Given his creative ability from midfield, he should have more assists. He's certainly in good company with regards to putting strikers through on goal.

Players to have played 5+ accurate through balls in the Premier League in 2024:

◉ Kevin De Bruyne
◉ Martin Ødegaard
◉ Douglas Luiz pic.twitter.com/YstCvcrnjH

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) March 25, 2024

Brentford (+195) vs. Manchester United (+120) - 4:00 p.m. EDT

Score prediction: Brentford 1 – 2 Manchester United

Brentford have taken just one point from their last six games. They've lost their last five home games against sides currently in the top half. Manchester United will come into this weekend on the back of their memorable FA Cup victory over Liverpool. They have won five of their six away games against the current bottom half of the table. An away win at plus odds is my favorite play.

Fantasy Player Pick: Rasmus Højlund

Before getting injured, Højlund had scored in six consecutive appearances. He tallied 55 FPL points in those six games and was the hottest striker in the league. Now fully fit, the Danish forward comes into this week on just 4.4% of FPL teams. He's a great differential as well as a likely points provider in the coming weeks.

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Liverpool (-275) vs. Brighton (+600) - 9:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Liverpool 3 – 0 Brighton

Liverpool will go top of the table if they avoid defeat, even if only temporarily. They're starting to get healthy after a spate of injuries and boast the best home record in the league this season. Brighton's lost five of their last eight away games. The only win came against Sheffield United. They've failed to score in four of their last seven away games and have conceded twice in three of the last four. A comfortable home win is the play here.

Fantasy Player Pick: Alexis Mac Allister

Mac Allister has been instrumental in maintaining Liverpool's title challenge during their injury issues. He's had a goal involvement in each of his last four league games (two goals and three assists), scoring 33 FPL points in the process. The World Cup winner makes a very good option this week and the remainder of the season given he's only on 3.5% of teams and costs £5.8m.

🇦🇷 Alexis Mac Allister's last eight matches across all competitions:

⚽️ vs Brentford
🅰️🅰️ vs Luton
❌ vs Chelsea
❌ vs Southampton
🅰️ vs Nottingham Forest
⚽️🅰️ vs Sparta Prague
⚽️ vs Manchester City
⚽️ vs Manchester United

Bringing Liverpool level. 💪#MUNLIV | #EmiratesFACup pic.twitter.com/95mvX9hZJL

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) March 17, 2024

Manchester City (-110) vs. Arsenal (+285) - 11:30 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Manchester City 1 – 0 Arsenal

The game of the weekend sees table-toppers Arsenal visit Manchester City. Arsenal's last eight trips to the Etihad Stadium have all resulted in defeats, with an aggregate score of 20-3. Their victory over the reigning champions in the reverse fixture will have given them the confidence to end their hoodoo. But, City has 17 wins and three draws in their last 20 games in all competitions. I expect the home team to edge this one.

Fantasy Player Pick: Kevin De Bruyne

Arsenal managed to nullify Erling Haaland in the reverse fixture. It was a game De Bruyne missed. The Belgian maestro has been injured for most of this season and I expect City to manage his playing time carefully over the next two months. But after he withdrew from international duty, De Bruyne should be fresh for this weekend. He scored three goals and had two assists in the two games against Arsenal last season.

Erling Haaland accumulated 0.00(xG) against Arsenal this evening.

— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) October 8, 2023

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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