EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 29: English Premier League

March 14, 2024

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 29 of the 2023-24 season, starting on 3/16/2024. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

The FA Cup quarterfinals take center stage this weekend. As a result, we have just four EPL fixtures this weekend before we head into an international break. We bagged a parlay last weekend and came close to hitting all three. A disallowed goal for West Ham cost us one and Nottingham Forest's profligacy cost us another. Still, we come into this abbreviated weekend of action on the back of a win.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Burnley (+225) vs. Brentford (+115) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Burnley 0 – 2 Brentford

Burnley let slip a two-goal lead in their 2-2 draw at West Ham. It did end a four-game losing streak but also extended their winless run to 10 games. It was the first time in four games in which Burnley scored. Brentford's in the midst of a five-game winless run and has picked up just seven points in their last 14 EPL games.

Burnley's home record is the worst in the league. No team has taken fewer points (five) at home and only Sheffield United (12 for and 42 against) has scored fewer and conceded more at home than Burnley (13 for and 34 against). Burnley's only home win came against Sheffield United (5-0). Brentford's form is poor, but they've had a tough schedule lately and won the reverse fixture 3-0. An away win at plus odds looks favorable.

Fantasy Player Pick: Ivan Toney

Toney's triumphant return from suspension back on Matchday 21 seems a long time ago. After four goals and an assist in his first five games back, Toney has blanked in his last four. He came close with an incredible instinctive strike last weekend at Arsenal and his confidence certainly hasn't lacked. He's in a great spot to get back on the scoresheet and will be a popular addition for those playing their Free Hit in FPL.

Luton Town (+170) vs. Nottingham Forest (+150) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Luton Town 2 – 1 Nottingham Forest

A huge relegation battle is the highlight of this weekend. Forest will find themselves in the relegation zone with a loss. And with a possible points deduction looming over them, anything but a win could ultimately see them slip into the Championship. Luton's stunning defeat in midweek after being up 3-0 at halftime might have a huge negative impact on their mindset. They'll need the home crowd to get behind them on Saturday.

Clinton Morrison gives his answer on Nottingham Forest's future in the Premier League 🎲 pic.twitter.com/0yGi5rcGUZ

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) March 10, 2024

The fact only Sheffield United has beaten Luton by more than one goal at Kenilworth Road is certainly an anomaly. Despite being tough to beat at home, Luton's only won three of their 14 home games. Luton has scored in all but one of their home games. Forest has blanked in their last two games but had scored in five consecutive away games before that. Both teams' scoring looks like the safest play this weekend.

Fantasy Player Pick: Alfie Doughty

Fulham (+220) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+105) - 1:30 p.m. EDT

Score prediction: Fulham 2 – 2 Tottenham Hotspur

Fulham's taken 14 points from their last nine games and won three of their last five, and Tottenham's comfortable win at Aston Villa put them in pole position for fourth spot. However, they have to face the current top three still, so we will want to ensure they keep their momentum. They've only won six of their 13 away games although Tottenham's away matches average 3.85 goals per game. Fulham's home games have averaged 2.93 goals.

The 15-point difference between Fulham's home and away records is the second biggest in the league. No team in the bottom half of the table has more points (25) or goals scored (26) at home than Fulham. They've played six of the current top 10 at home, winning four games and losing twice. They've also scored 14 goals in those games. Fulham may not be able to take all three points but there should be at least three goals in this game.

Fantasy Player Pick: Rodrigo Muniz

Tottenham will be the most popular team for those using their Free Hit this weekend. However, I'd look to include Fulham's Muniz if you can. He has four goals and an assist in his last three games at Craven Cottage. Before last weekend, Tottenham had conceded 14 goals in their previous seven away games. They've allowed two or more goals eight times on their travels (13 games), so Muniz will be fancying his chances of another solid FPL return.

No player has recorded more goal attempts so far in FPL GW28 than Rodrigo Muniz (7) 💥

Still just £4.5m 🤯 pic.twitter.com/DTkYwRJBne

— Fantasy Football Scout (@FFScout) March 12, 2024

Sunday, March 17, 2024

West Ham United (+175) vs. Aston Villa (+140) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: West Ham United 2 – 1 Aston Villa

West Ham will feel they dropped two points last week. And while their form hasn't been great, they have lost just one of their last nine home games (against league leader Arsenal). Villa's won their last three away games, scoring 10 goals in the process. However, Villa has only played five of the current top half of the table away from home. They have only one win and one draw in those games (scoring six goals and conceding 13).

Both sides have big home games in Europe on Thursday. And both sides are fighting for qualification in next season's European competitions.  The midweek games certainly make this one tougher to predict. Eight of West Ham's home games have seen both teams find the net. That's been the case in nine of Villa's away games. Backing both teams to score on Sunday feels like the best option.

Fantasy Player Pick: Ollie Watkins

While I'm backing the home side, I wouldn't be surprised to see Villa win and score two or three themselves. If they do, Watkins will be instrumental in that. I have suggested some caution with Watkins for the remainder of the season. Although Watkins leads FPL in points (185), he has struggled against the top teams.

As great as Ollie Watkins has been in #FPL, he's scored a total of 5 points in 3 games against Arsenal, Liverpool & Man City.

He's got to face all 3 again before the season ends. Maybe he's not an automatic start for every remaining game

— Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) March 11, 2024

Villa has to play the three title contenders again before the end of the season. If we break his points down even further; Watkins has scored an average of 2.29 FPL points per game against the current top-six teams (seven games). He's only had one goal involvement. Against every other team, Watkins is averaging 8.05 FPL points per game. You will 100% want to start him this weekend, but he's not the sure thing some might think in the coming weeks.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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