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"Breakout" is a common term used around the fantasy community during the draft season.
These players are usually fairly young and have just begun to scratch the surface of their professional careers. They have also had a relatively high prospect pedigree, further raising their potential ceiling.
The most important note about a "breakout" is that this is the year to draft them at a discount. If these players live up to their potential, they can very well be drafted at the top of their respective positions next season. This is the year to take a risk on them and even draft them earlier than their ADP might suggest, as it may lead you to a championship.
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Michael King, SP, San Diego Padres
ADP: 149
A headliner in the Juan Soto trade that sent the 2019 World Series champion to the Bronx, Michael King is on track to finally become a full-time starter out west.
After performing very well out of the bullpen in a setup role for the Yankees, King was given the opportunity to start nine games for New York in the second half of 2023.
In that second half, he posted a solid 2.73 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across 56 innings with 76 strikeouts. While he did not go deep in many of his starts, it was promising to see his play translate from the bullpen to a starter.
King excelled in generating punchouts with a dominant 29.5% K rate (88th percentile) and 29.4% whiff rate (73rd percentile).
Michael King collects his first K with the Padres
Michael King shows off his stuff by striking out David Fry in the top of the 4th inning, giving him his first strikeout with his new team
Guardians @ Padres#PadresST | February 26, 2024 pic.twitter.com/yw3hBLy0KA
— San Diego Strong (@PadresStrong) February 26, 2024
Even more impressive, while maintaining a high strikeout rate, King also did very well in limiting hard contact. He placed above league average in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity in 2023 and would also have in 2022 if he met the innings requirement.
The 28-year-old should still be drafted with caution as he has yet to be in a starting rotation for more than two months. This is a reason to be hesitant to pull the trigger on draft day, but it is not his fault the Yankees never provided him the opportunity to be a starter. He was dominant out of the bullpen for them, and there was little reason for the Yankees to change his role.
However, he is a very talented pitcher that could dominate if given the opportunity. King currently slots in as the No. 3 option for San Diego behind Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Do not be surprised if King provides solid ratios with excellent strikeout numbers in 2024.
Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 172
Hayes has been a mainstay in the Pirates lineup for just about two and a half seasons. Many believe that he hit his peak last season, where he hit for a .271 AVG, posted a .309 OBP, and .453 SLG with 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases. However, I believe that an even better 2024 can be in store for the former first-round pick.
When analyzing a younger player who has already established himself as a major leaguer, you want to pinpoint any signs of growth that have occurred and see if the growth was substantial enough to suggest further improvement.
The third baseman hit almost all of the marks last season as he posted an improved hard-hit rate, xBa, xSLG, xWOBA, exit velocity, and barrel rate, and even lowered his K rate compared to his 2022 numbers.
He posted an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph that placed him in the 93rd percentile among qualified hitters, which is not an easy task. This put him with the best of the best among power hitters.
Ball just sounds different off Ke’Bryan Hayes’ bat pic.twitter.com/McSpmK9ja6
— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) February 27, 2024
Another skill of Hayes that I love is his ability to crush fastballs. The 27-year-old hit for a .302 AVG with a .466 SLG in 2023 against fastballs. His underlying metrics suggest he could have been even better with an improved .479 xSLG.
Hayes can be a valuable selection as a corner infielder who can provide a solid number of home runs with an excellent batting average and decent speed and could very well have an even better 2024 in store.
Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP: 290
Sal Frelick made his major league debut last July and remained on the major league roster throughout the entire second-half and lived up to his prospect pedigree.
Frelick showcased his excellent contact and on-base skills in his rookie season. The 23-year-old posted a .246 AVG, .341 OBP, and .351 SLG.
The Brewer will be drafted as a great source of on-base/average depending on your league scoring and will also be beneficial in points leagues as he rarely strikes out. His on-base percentage was right in line with Steven Kwan, a player with very similar skill sets.
The outfielder's great 14.6% whiff rate, 16.6% K rate, and 12.6% walk rate would have placed him well above league average if he met the qualification requirements.
I chose to include this outfielder on the list not only because of his ability to get on base consistently, but also because of his potential for positional flexibility. During spring training, Frelick has been receiving several opportunities to man the hot corner. Having third-base eligibility is an added bonus, especially in deeper formats or NL-only leagues.
Frelick is well worth the investment in deeper points leagues or leagues that value on-base skills, as he has the skills to be one of the best in that category. Also, taking reps at third base further provides him with lineup security, showing that the Brewers value his defensive skills and versatility.
The more playing time available for a highly respected prospect, the easier it is for them to reach their potential. Frelick could become one of the most reliable on-base players in the National League in 2024.
Orion Kerkering, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
ADP: 494
Rounding out this list is the seventh-best prospect in the Philadelphia system. While the sample size is very small, I wanted to include him as there is a significant path for him to receive closing opportunities throughout the season.
No. 7 @Phillies prospect Orion Kerkering shined bright in his MLB debut last night ⭐️
1 IP | 0 H | 0 ER | 0 BB | 2 K pic.twitter.com/pPN3XwJQ9P
— Phillies Player Development (@PhilsPlayerDev) September 25, 2023
Kerkering appeared in three innings at the end of the regular season and posted a 3.00 ERA with six punchouts. He continued to be deployed out of the bullpen in the postseason where he posted several shutout innings that were unfortunately tainted by a poor appearance against the Arizona Diamondbacks on October 19, as he allowed three hits and an earned run, blowing the save without recording an out.
Kerkering throws two pitches, highlighted by his sweeper, which he uses 85% of the time. In his small sample size, he generated an incredible 66.7% ground ball rate and 42.9% K rate.
These numbers will probably not be sustainable, but they should be a name to monitor during the opening months of the season.
Jose Alvarado is currently slated to be the team’s closer, but Kerkering could very well find himself in that role if he continues to shine and his teammates struggle. Craig Kimbrel is now in Baltimore, so the path to relevance is shorter than a year ago.
I would not be surprised if Kerkering emerges as a top reliever not only on his team, but in the National League as well.
These players are worth the investment at their current ADP as they could very well finish at the top of their positions and exceed their projections. It is always a good idea to bet on talent once you hit the mid and latter rounds of your fantasy draft. Get ahead of your league mates and select these players on draft day.
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