RADIO
Jordan Spieth got disqualified for not signing the correct score in Round 2. Spieth remains one of the most polarizing players in the game, hitting death-defying shots from the edge of Pebble Beach cliffs, chipping balls in from just about anywhere, missing four footers once too often, and failing to add up a Par 3 score correctly.
In other news, Patrick Cantlay has a five shot lead over Jason Day, Luke List, and Mackenzie Hughes. He has gained seven strokes putting so far, which will make for some interesting watching as the event unfolds over the weekend.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating toward, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 2 Analysis
Winning Lineup
Weather, Course Conditions & Tee Times
Round 3 Strategy
The AM/PM split for Round 2 was a mere 0.18 difference in strokes. The weather advantage of Round 1 was blown away along with the PM wave on Thursday. We will have to be ownership conscious to get an edge this Round 3 slate.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $1 20 ENTRY MAX, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite play: Rory McIlroy is easily the best Round 3 scorer in the field, gaining +2.4 strokes, with the next best being +1.85. We will be going back to the Rory well again. He was a top-five scorer today, only a birdie separating him and the best scorer of the day.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Viktor Hovland grades out as the best projected points scorer for Round 3. He has yet to really get out of second gear this week, giving him some unpopular ownership. He has the opportunity to roar up the leaderboard with ideal iron play out the rough and a putter that is eagerly awaiting ample birdie attempts.
Other options: Collin Morikawa
$8,000+
Favorite play: Sam Burns seems to get better and better as the week unfolds. He is an elite putter when he is playing his best and we should get the explosive Ryder Cupper at single digit ownership.
Other options: Adam Scott, Tommy Fleetwood
$7,000+
Favorite play: Sungjae Im has been struggling lately. However, his Saturday rounds have been incredibly impressive over the last while, ranking second with only Rory ahead of him on strokes gained in Round 3. He is cheap and will be largely unowned, making him one of my more heavily rostered golfers going into the moving day slate.
Other options: Russell Henley, Adam Svensson
$6,000+
Favorite play: Christiaan Bezuidenhout has been making a lot more birdies than we are used to seeing from my fellow South African. He is VERY affordably priced for somebody who started his round with a streak in R2. He currently sits T11 and is not a very popular showdown option usually. Despite his stellar play so far, he won't be owned to reflect that. Let's get hot boytjie!!!
Other options: Nick Taylor, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Hodges
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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