Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - Sanderson Farms Championship

After a sporadic September on the scheduling front, October brings the first signs of fall and a run of seven consecutive weeks of PGA Tour golf!

The opening event of 2023's fall swing saw the breakthrough of one of Califonia's most promising sons, as Sahith Theegala captured his first professional win in front of his boisterous home crowd. This week in Jackson, Mississippi, a collection of young talents will aim to repeat the trick.

Over the last eight years here in Jackson, we've seen leaderboards featuring some of the Tour's preeminent bombers, as well as some of its shortest hitters. We've seen established Ryder Cup mainstays recapture a bit of their old magic, as well as a few plucky young upstarts fighting to turn themselves into household names. With five winners cashing tickets of >100-1 since 2015, this event may well be the most unpredictable on the PGA Tour. Here's everything you need to know about the Country Club of Jackson and the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship!

The Golf Course

Country Club of Jackson - Par 72; 7,271 yards

It’s a stark change of scenery from the rolling hills of Northern Califonia to the Golden Coasts of Jackson, Mississippi, but from a golf course design standpoint, there are many throughlines to be drawn between the first two stops of the fall swing. Like Silverado at the end of last month, the Country Club of Jackson features some of the narrowest fairways on the PGA Tour (29.1 yards wide on average), and its historical driving accuracy rate sits a whopping 8 percentage points below the Tour Average (53.9% vs 61.9%).

Don’t let these narrow landing areas confuse you though, as very much like the Fortinet Championship to start the fall swing, players receive very little penalty for driving the ball off-line. Jackson features the 6th lowest missed fairway penalty on the PGA Tour (0.29), and with just 2 water hazards/penalty areas in play off the tee, there aren’t a lot of deterrents standing in the way of players swinging away with driver off of nearly every tee box.

This disregard for Jackson’s off-fairway impediments has been best exemplified by Cameron Champ, who won here in 2018 despite ranking 123rd in Driving Accuracy that week, and, in fact, nearly 40% of Top 10 finishers since 2018 have finished the week below field average in driving accuracy. Of the two driving metrics, it would seem as though distance is much more predictive when projecting potential upside at CCoJ - as 7 of the last 8 champions here have rated out above field average in driving distance (average rank of 11.4), and since 2016, 70% of Top 10 finishers have beaten the field average in distance off the tee. 

Although a past champions list of Cameron Champ, Sam Burns, and Sebastian Munoz paints a clear picture in favor of the bomb-and-gouge strategy, I hesitate to put too much weight on driving as a whole when we’ve seen the likes of Mackenzie Hughes, Ryan Armour, and Peter Malnati find the winner’s circle here within the last eight years. The three of them combined to lose 1.8 strokes off-the-tee in their respective wins, and of the four strokes gained metrics, off-the-tee comes in at a distant third in relation to its contribution to Top 5/10/20 finishers.

When it comes to assessing the importance of off-the-tee metrics as a whole, I do see enough instances of driving distance having a profound impact on success to include it in my modeling, but this is far from a Torrey Pines/Bay Hill type of venue where certain players are eliminated strictly based on driving deficiencies. The next two metrics in this section can cover up a lot of warts for players who historically struggle off the tee, and they will each be weighted profoundly more than any driving stat I’ve alluded to thus far.

As we move into the second shot and beyond, the formula for success moves swiftly from the “choose your own adventure” philosophy we discussed with the driver, into a necessary prerequisite. Top five finishers at the Sanderson Farms have gained an average of 3.94 strokes to the field with their approach shots (compared to just 2.16 off-the-tee), and no winner since 2017 has managed to capture this title whilst gaining any less than 2.5 strokes on approach. 

Anyone who combs through golf statistics on a regular basis will understand the importance of approach play to success on the PGA Tour, so the real question we should be asking is which types of iron players should we be targeting? As is the case with most of the easier venues on Tour, proximity ranges at the Country Club of Jackson fall into two general categories: wedges on the Par 4’s, and long irons on the Par 3’s and 5’s.

With seven Par 4’s this week measuring in at under 450 yards, four reachable Par 5’s, and two Par 3’s measuring over 200 yards, I’d anticipate players to have a wedge or long iron in their hand on 70-plus percent of their approach shots. Proximity to the hole metrics from <150 and >200 will both be integral parts of my modeling process. 

With winning scores ranging from (-17) to (-22) since 2015, and historic Green In Regulation rates of nearly 70%, it’s pretty easy to write off the importance of around-the-green play this week. However, its short-game counterpart more than makes up the difference to ensure this isn’t a complete ball-striking party. Putting has been the most impactful of the four strokes gained metrics when projecting Top 5/10/20 finishers at the Sanderson Farms (narrowly edging out Approach), and winners here have had to gain over six strokes putting on average historically.

Agricomically, the Greens at Jackson are made up of Champion Bermuda and roll upwards of 12.5-13 on the Stimpmeter, making them some of the fastest greens we’ll see all year. This absolutely contributes to CCoJ being one of the more difficult venues to gain strokes with the putter relative to its spot on the schedule, and it puts even more emphasis on a player’s history on comparable green types.

Historic acumen on similar surfaces will be a key metric in my modeling, as will recent putting splits leading up to this week (Sedgefield, Quail Hollow, Congaree, and TPC Southwind all feature Champion Bermuda greens and were played in competition over the course of the 2023 season). Unless you carry a truly elite ball-striking ceiling (which is much harder to find in this strength of field), I’ll need some legitimate upside cases to point to when projecting your performance on these greens. 

Key Stats Roundup: 

• Recent Approach Form, Long-term Wedge/Long Iron Proximities (100-150; 200+ yards)
• Long-term Bermuda putting splits + recent momentum on the greens (SG: Putting last 24-36 rounds)
• Above average weight on driving distance, although elite driving isn’t nearly the same prerequisite to success as it is at many other Tour venues
• Proficiency in easier scoring conditions, Par 5 Scoring, Birdie or Better Rates

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be imperative to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside where he is on the golf course and which holes he still has left to play.

In general, the swing season isn’t known for placing a great number of impediments in front of the world’s best, and the Country Club of Jackson is no different. 10 of the 18 holes here have historically played under par, and on two separate occasions, CCoJ has surrendered a scoring average below 70 (2016 and 2022). This figure puts Jackson right alongside Kapalua, Craig Ranch, and Keene Trace as one of the easier overall venues on Tour. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see someone go out early in the week and post a number in the low 60s to set the pace. 

Funnily enough, the two nines carry the exact same scoring averages dating back to 2015 (35.47), and neither side is without its fair share of scoring opportunities. Holes 1, 2, 3, and 5 carry birdie or better rates of at least 20% on the front nine, whereas 11, 13, 14, 15, and 17 provide the main scoring chances on the inward half. It should be emphasized that every single hole at Jackson comes with a BoB Rate of at least 10%, so there’s no singular spot on the golf course in which it’s completely unfathomable to pick up a shot. 

If there was one obstacle on the course I expect to trip up a few of this week's contestants, it would be at the par four 16th. Playing at 479 yards on the scorecard, the 16th will force these players to hit driver through a narrow shoot with a penalizing bunker and dense treelines on the right side, and out-of-bounds all the way down the left. Once the ball’s in the fairway, the hole becomes much more straightforward, but the peril in play off-the-tee has accounted for a historic bogey rate of 20.2%, with 4.6% of players carding a 6 or worse. 

A few other rogue hazards at 8, 11, and 12 can also cause some stress if you find yourself out of position, but in general, I’d expect many of these guys to have no trouble routinely putting the ball on the putting surface in regulation. When mapping out target points in the live market, I think the best value propositions will come from players making the turn from 18 to 1.

Not only will back-nine starters already have dealt with four of the six most difficult holes on the course (including the aforementioned 16th), but the start of Jackson’s front nine presents the clearest scoring opportunities on the property in quick succession. Holes 1-5 at Jackson CC have played to a scoring average of (-0.66), with four of the five carrying birdie or better rates of >20%. If you’re looking for a spot on the course where a player can make a quick move up the leaderboard, this is the most likely spot I see. 

Sanderson Farms Betting Card

Eric Cole (22-1)

Our headline bet at the Fortinet brought us a fourth-place finish to open our 2024 account, and with the way he struck the ball in Napa Valley, I don’t see any reason to steer away from Eric Cole in Week 2. Cole led the field from tee-to-green at Silverado, gained 6.2 shots on Approach (the best iron week of his PGA Tour career), and put himself into contention on Sunday afternoon despite losing strokes with his most reliable historical weapon (the putter). 

A trip to Mississippi could well be the perfect tonic for his balky putter, as Cole’s Florida roots have served him well on Bermuda greens over the last year. He had the two best putting performances of his season in the southeast (+8.8 at Wyndham; +8.4 at Honda), and despite missing the cut here last year, Eric managed to gain 4.6 strokes on these greens in his first-ever appearance in Jackson.

Even if the putter doesn’t get back to peak form, Cole’s recent ball-striking splits have made him a commodity that isn’t entirely reliant on the flat stick to make his way into contention: Cole rates out second in this field in long-term wedge proximity, 15th in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in Birdie Chances Created, and 1st in Birdie or Better Percentage.

There are certainly some question marks to be found in Cole’s driving profile, but he already conquered a similar off-the-tee test last month in Napa, and his elite combination of iron play/putting can cover up the occasional misfire with the big stick. He feels as close as anyone on Tour to capturing that coveted breakthrough win, and in a field devoid of headline names, Eric Cole deserves every bit of the respect he’s gotten in the market. He makes a fine bet at any price >20-1. 

Adam Svensson (45-1)

After his breakout win to end the 2022 campaign, 2023 has been a year of feast or famine for Adam Svensson. Three top 25 finishes at marquee events to start the year (Genesis, PLAYERS, Arnold Palmer), were followed by a string of seven starts in which he failed to gain strokes with his most reliable career asset (his iron play). Once the calendar flipped into July, however, the Canadian began to find his stride. In five starts from the John Deere Classic to the BMW Championship, Svensson gained an average of 2.5 strokes on Approach and 4.3 from tee-to-green per start.

He racked up finishes of 7th at Sedgefield, 37th in the opening playoff event in Memphis, and 15th in the FedEx Cup semifinals at Olympia Fields. These recent splits should set off alarm bells in the heads of his competition, as Svensson has routinely shown the ability to dominate weaker fields when his ball-striking is on song. Four of his five career Top 10s have come on shorter, bermudagrass courses like this, making Jackson, Mississippi as good a place as any to back him to ride the wave into another contending effort.

Alex Smalley (50-1)

Anyone who’s bet Alex Smalley on a regular basis will tell you what a headache he can be, but from a ball-striking perspective, there simply aren’t many players in this field capable of the things he can do with a golf club. Starting in March of last season, Smalley put together a run of form that is typically only reserved for the elite players in this game: gaining strokes on Approach in 13 consecutive starts and gaining over 4 shots on five separate occasions. Heading into the FedEx Cup playoffs, he was a top 5 iron player on the PGA Tour based on recent form, and has continually proven his merits against the best competition this sport has to offer:

• +3.1 OTT; +5.8 on Approach in an elevated event at the Travelers
• +3.7 OTT; +2.6 on Approach at the PGA Championship 
• +4.3 APP; +6.5 from tee-to-green at the Wells Fargo Championship (another elevated field at a Major Championship-calibre course).

The bugaboo with Smalley will always be the putter, but it’s not like we’re dealing with historic levels of incompetence on the greens. In fact, he’s gained strokes putting in four of his last ten events and finished 2nd, 9th, 18th, and 25th in each of those four starts. With his ball-striking ceiling and the lack of elite talent in this field, it won’t take much cooperation from the putter to propel him back into the thick of contention this week.

Callum Tarren (50-1)

If the bomb-and-gouge approach does turn out to be the winning formula in Jackson, my hopes will largely be pinned onto 33-year-old Englishman Callum Tarren. Tarren is one of the only players in this field capable of replicating the driving dominance displayed by Cameron Champ in his 2018 conquest, as he rates third in this field in Driving Distance and is three weeks removed from leading the field in Total Driving at the Fortinet Championship. 

Tarren has shown a certain affinity for these shorter tracks, as many of his career-best driving weeks have come at the likes of Silverado, TPC River Highlands, Wai’alae, and TPC Twin Cities. He’s no slouch in his approach metrics either: rating out 21st in SG: APP, 13th in Birdie Chances Created, and third in Total Ball-Striking over the last four months. Callum’s already got a 13th-place finish to his name at the Sanderson Farms last year, and with two Top 15 finishes over his last three starts, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him find his way back onto the first page of this week’s leaderboard. 

Sam Ryder (55-1)

You’d be hard-pressed to find a bigger statistical enigma than Sam Ryder over the course of the 2023 season. Sam first made his name known with a 4th place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, but after a fairly balanced approach led him deep into contention at Torrey Pines, he went on one of the craziest putting runs we’ve seen in recent memory. Ryder gained a total of 36 strokes putting in a six-start stretch from Phoenix to San Antonio before the flame eventually burned out at Harbour Town.

Then, following a two-month stint in the golfing doldrums, Ryder began to make significant strides in another part of his game: his iron play. In five consecutive starts dating back to the John Deere Classic, Sam has gained an AVERAGE of 5.5 strokes on Approach per tournament. Those types of per-round splits are basically unheard of outside of the best iron players on the planet (Scheffler, Morikawa, Rahm, etc.), and Ryder proved again at the Fortinet that his recent ball-striking surge is no fluke: gaining 6.4 shots on Approach (3rd in the field), and 3.2 OTT (10th) after a one-month layoff from competitive play. If this is truly the new Sam Ryder, I’m more than happy to take a shot at 55-1 in this field - especially considering he’s one of the best Bermuda putters on Tour over a 75-round sample. 

Doug Ghim (60-1)

With Adam Svensson and Alex Smalley already on the card, why not complete the friends and family triumvirate with another enticing talent I’ve historically struggled to quit? I made the case for Doug Ghim’s recent form in my Fortinet article, but since he gained another 3.1 shots off-the-tee and 0.8 on approach in Napa, let’s update the facts and figures on his current run of form:

• Ghim has now gained strokes on Approach in his last eight PGA starts, rating out 6th in SG: APP and 5th in Birdie Chances Created since the start of May.
• He’s gained strokes off the tee in eight of his last nine starts on Tour; gaining more than 3 shots in this category on six separate occasions since the start of May.
• Over his last 36 rounds, Ghim is the best overall ball-striker in this field. He also ranks 5th in Wedge Proximity in 2023 and 21st in Par 5 Scoring
• Finally, Doug Ghim has gained strokes putting in five of his last six starts - the first time in his career he’s been able to put together this sort of sustained form on the greens. He’s also flashed a bit of upside in addition to this steadier baseline: as three of the best seven putting weeks of his career have come within the last six months.

The bear case against Doug Ghim would be that despite his recent run of career-best ball-striking numbers, he’s yet to register a finish better than 12th in 2023. One might point to a lack of upside in these results, but I’m encouraged by the fact that he’s routinely found himself on the second/third page of the leaderboard while displaying spike potential in the three most important facets of the game. The week everything comes together for Doug Ghim, I have no doubt he’ll find his way into the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Greyson Sigg (95-1)

The UGA alum has always had one of my favorite names on the PGA Tour, but over the last 3-4 months, he's begun to consistently showcase some of the upside we projected from him as a blue-chip prospect out of Augusta. Dating back to last season's Canadian Open, Sigg has gained strokes on Approach in six of seven starts (averaging nearly a half-stroke per round in that time), and started his 2024 campaign with a 25th place finish in Napa Valley - gaining 5 strokes on approach in the process (the third-best iron week of his career).

Now we head back to SEC country, and a grass type he's been much more successful on in his two years on Tour. He gained 4.7 shots on these very greens in a 9th place finish last year, and 3 of the four best putting weeks of his career have come on Bermuda grass courses in the Southeast (+6.3 at Valspar, +4.7 last year in Jackson, +4.5 at the '22 RSM). Sigg has quietly strung together a run of 5 Top 40s to just one missed cut since the start of June, and in a much weaker field this week, I think he's a real threat to carry that form into contention on familiar ground.

Troy Merritt (125-1)

Troy Merritt was a name I actually had on the shortlist at the Fortinet Championship, but ultimately stayed away from due to his recent struggles with the putting yips. It was an abrupt fall from grace for Merritt on the greens, as he fell from 43rd in the 2022 SG: Putting ranks all the way down to 182th in 2023.

The good news for Merritt is during these pronounced struggles with the flat stick, he managed to become one of the hottest ball strikers on the PGA Tour. Over the last three months, Troy has gained an average of 1.3 strokes per round between his driving and iron play (4th best in the field) and is the only player in Jackson this week that can claim a top 15 spot in each of the three tee-to-green metrics.

His best ball-striking performance of the lot came just a few weeks ago at the Fortinet (+3.8 OTT; +3.7 APP), and for the first time in nearly four months, Troy Merritt managed to gain strokes to the field with his putter (+1.4). If those problems on the greens are truly in the rearview mirror, Merritt possesses an extremely compelling profile to break through at a big number this fall. He’s already recorded a 7th-place finish in Napa to start his 2024 campaign, I’m comfortable riding along with the Boise State product as long as these encouraging trends continue.

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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