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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 09/07/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
We have six games on this Thursday, Sept. 7 MLB schedule but that doesn't mean we don't have value on the board. Let's take a look through all six evening contests and head toward the weekend on a strong note!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYY (-166)
DET: Eduardo Rodriguez | NYY: Carlos Rodon
The Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees have seen a lot of each other of late and it's been the latter dominating the former over the last week and a half.
Indeed, the Yankees took three of four from the Tigers in Detroit to kick off last week before claiming the first two games of a three-game set in the Bronx this week. A sweep is far from certain, however, as the starting pitching advantage belongs to the Tigers in this one.
Toeing the rubber for the road side is Tigers southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez who has had himself a fine season. The veteran enters this one sporting a 3.11 ERA across 21 starts while his 3.30 FIP and steady 17.9% K-BB% agree with his solid work to this point. E-Rod has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 21 starts on the season, giving his club a chance to win each and every time he takes the bump.
For good measure, Rodriguez sports a healthy 3.03 ERA across 71 1/3 innings on the road while his 2.91 FIP away from Comerica Park strongly agrees with that work.
For the Yankees, it's another southpaw in Carlos Rodon getting the nod Thursday evening. Rodon's season got off to a very late start due to a few injury issues in the spring while he has tossed a 5.70 ERA, 6.64 FIP, 5.45 SIERA, and a tiny 8.6% K-BB% across his nine starts on the campaign.
Now, those numbers are somewhat skewed by a few poor outings and Rodon has allowed just five combined runs over his last four starts and 15 2/3 innings of work. That said, he sports a 6.77 FIP and 5.7% K-BB% at home this season while yielding a hefty .354 wOBA to hitters at Yankee Stadium in 2023.
The Yankees sport both the offensive and bullpen advantage here. They rank eighth with a .336 wOBA off lefties this season while the Tigers are 26th with a .300 wOBA versus southpaws. Additionally, while the Tigers sit 20th with a 4.36 ERA from their bullpen this season, the Yankees boast the best bullpen in baseball, as per their league-leading 3.14 ERA from their relief pitchers this season.
However, we're getting a nice price on the superior starting pitcher here. We'll keep this one to the first five innings and grab the Tigers, behind Rodriguez, at nice plus-money odds.
Pick: Tigers F5 moneyline (+120, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CHC (-175)
ARI: Ryne Nelson | CHC: Javier Assad
A pair of National League playoff hopefuls get together for a crucial tilt tonight in Chicago. The Cubs are just 1.5 games back of the NL Central lead but also sit in the second Wild Card spot in the senior circuit while the D-backs are only a half-game back of the final Wild Card spot in the NL.
Getting the ball for the D-backs tonight is right-hander Ryne Nelson who has been summoned from the minors to make tonight's start. Unfortunately, Nelson has had a tough go in the big leagues this season as he sports a 5.47 ERA across 24 starts while his 5.15 FIP, 5.23 SIERA, and 8.3% K-BB% all leave plenty to be desired. Additionally, while he posted a 3.74 ERA in four Triple-A starts, he also worked to a 6.33 FIP and 2.3% K-BB% in that time.
The Cubs will send fellow right-hander Javier Assad to the bump for this one and he is due for some serious regression moving forward. Assad owns a sterling 2.69 ERA in his 25 outings (seven starts) but he also sports a 4.20 FIP, 4.62 SIERA, and a 9.8% K-BB% across his 87 innings of work with the Cubs this season. A SIERA roughly two runs above his ERA spells doom for the righty moving forward.
Both of these clubs have handled right-handed pitching well in 2023. The Cubs sit ninth with a .326 wOBA off righties on the campaign while the D-backs check in at 11th with a nearly identical .325 wOBA off right-handers. While the Cubs sit 14th with a 3.94 ERA from their bullpen, Arizona has scuffled to a 4.56 ERA from their relievers, good for 22nd league-wide.
This one sure has the look of a high-scoring affair, yet we are getting a very reasonable 8.5 run total on this one. Let's follow the numbers and grab the over tonight in the Windy City.
Pick: Over 8.5 total runs (-105, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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