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Rotoballers, we are finally approaching the NBA regular season! Training camp and preseason are winding down and the first tipoff of the year is right around the corner. Fantasy basketball drafts are happening and everyone is starting to formulate their master plan, which usually includes some outlandish predictions.
Every year has some big surprises that fall under both good and bad. Some players regress quicker than expected and others shoot to the top of the league out of nowhere. We now see Tyrese Haliburton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander going in the early stages of the first round when they weren't even close to that in years prior. Who's going to be that next name to reach the top when others least expected it?
Well, that's what we're aiming to help with by giving these five bold predictions. Playing it safe can only get fantasy managers so far. Sometimes we need to gamble on that mid-round player who has the upside of an earlier-round player. So, instead of teasing the five bold predictions, let's get right into those names that could be worth gambling on in your fantasy draft. Here are my five bold predictions for the 2023-24 NBA season.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including NBA Writer of the Year, Best NFL Series, MLB Series, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!
1. Domantas Sabonis Finishes Top Five In Points And 9-Cat Leagues
Most people are in one of two camps when it comes to Domantas Sabonis. Those that haven't watched much of the Sacramento Kings so they don't know what to think of Sabonis' skill set and those that absolutely love what he brings to the court and fantasy rosters. If you happen to fall into the latter group, then this probably isn't the boldest prediction on the interwebs. The former group just scoffed as they read this while exclaiming that he isn't even first-round pick-worthy.
Let me explain to the Sabonis doubters! Last season, the 27-year-old big man ranked in the top five of points leagues for total points, 14th in fantasy points per game, and 21st in 9-cat leagues according to both Hashtag Basketball and Basketball Monster. Sabonis averaged 19.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game while boasting shooting splits of .615/.373/.742 and a ridiculous offensive rating of 132.
So, for those keeping score back home, Sabonis is already top five in one ranking and we just need two more. The Kings didn't add many pieces this offseason which means Sabonis is returning to a lead role and will likely play just as many minutes as he did before. His teammates also like to shoot a lot of threes (sixth in three-point attempts) which gives him more opportunities for rebounds, more opportunities for assists, and a not-so-clogged lane to find efficient shots.
Essentially, everything from his skillset to the scheme he plays in and the teammates around him contribute to his rising fantasy stock. Oh, let's not forget the best ability is availability! He's played in 74 games or more in four of his seven seasons, so fewer headaches for his fantasy managers.
2. Markelle Fultz wins Most Improved Player of the Year
Remember when Markelle Fultz was the first overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft? Do you also remember the reason that he was drafted so high?
Before the deep dives into the curious case of losing his jump shot, memes, and jokes at the Philadelphia 76ers expense, Fultz was seen as one of the best players in the NCAA. Despite missing out on March Madness, he averaged 23.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting 47.6% from the floor and 41.3% from beyond the arc. Those kinds of numbers in college are insane!
Then, his first five seasons happened. Injuries, mental blocks, weird free throw routines, and getting traded to Orlando all took place. Fultz averaged 10.9 points, 4.8 assists, 3.2 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game across 131 appearances. Which are fringe fantasy and role-player numbers. Last season, however, he started in all 60 games that he played in and averaged 14.0 points, 5.7 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 2.3 turnovers per contest while shooting 51.4% overall and 31.0% from deep.
No, they're not all-star numbers, but hear me out. Fultz is just 25 years old and can realistically improve his shooting ability while growing more comfortable with the speed of the NBA and building chemistry with the young core of the Magic. His game looks more fluid and more natural, and he no longer looks like he has to overthink every move he makes.
Let's get back to the numbers. In Fultz's injury-shortened 2021-22 season, his per-36 numbers were 19.5 points, 9.9 assists, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.0 steals. He saw an increase in trust from the coaching staff as he received his highest minutes per game mark at 29.6 this past year and he'll remain in the starting guard role as both Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony haven't turned out to be what the team wanted. He'll be one of the main options alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner which gives him plenty of assist opportunities as well as openings on the offensive end.
It's Fultz season!
3. Jalen Duren finishes top three in rebounds
Detroit finally gets some sort of shout-out! While Cade Cunningham and Ausar Thompson are the center of attention, Jalen Duren is a key piece to keep in mind.
Something many people may not know is the fact that Duren ranked in the top seven in total rebounding percentage, top five in offensive rebounding percentage, and snuck into the top 20 for defensive rebounding percentage. In just 24.9 minutes per contest, the young big man out of Memphis finished 21st in rebounds per game with 8.9. The only player who finished above him with the same or less amount of playing time is Jonas Valanciunas.
The only resistance Duren is facing is the fact that he has James Wiseman and Isaiah Stewart as teammates. The good thing is that he looks like the best prospect out of the three so far. Oh, he also happens to have the trust of new head coach Monty Williams.
Given an increase in playing time with the same or better rebounding efficiency that he posted in his rookie season means a huge increase in rebounding numbers. He'll be important in any category format builds that prioritize efficiency and rebounds.
4. Keegan Murray finishes top ten in made threes
Yes, there are two Kings in this list. Sacramento fans should rejoice over Sabonis, Keegan Murray, and the electric offense. You know what, let's just light the beam!
In his rookie year, Murray lit it up from downtown at a clip of 2.6 made threes per game. In fact, he shot 41.1% from deep which is just 0.1% worse than Klay Thompson. That's a rookie power forward finishing barely below one of the best shooters in the league. The difference is that Thompson made 4.4 out of 10.6 attempts per game compared to Murray's 6.3 attempts per game.
Do you know what happens when a rookie shoots that well and already started 78 out of the 80 games he's played? If your answer was, "They receive more minutes and opportunities," then you're correct! Taking at least a couple more threes per game is not out of the question, especially with the type of offense that Sacramento runs. Not only can Murray put the ball on the floor and create shots for himself, but there are playmakers all over the floor to find him off of screens and in transition.
Based on last season, Murray just needs to raise his threes per game figure by 0.5 to tie the tenth-place shooter which happens to be Kyrie Irving. If there are any fantasy managers who need to add a three-point shooter that can grab some rebounds, then Keegan Murray is your man!
5. Jalen Brunson gets MVP consideration
Let's finish things off with something spicy! I'm not going to go so far as to say Jalen Brunson is going to win the league MVP this year. What I will say is that he'll be in the conversation as he leads the New York Knicks to another playoff appearance and possibly a top-four seed in the East.
Brunson finally got to take control of a team after moving to New York and he didn't disappoint in his first season as one of the top two options on a team. He posted averages of 24.0 points, 6.2 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game on top of shooting 49.1% overall and 41.6% from three. He was the floor general, the spark plug for the offense, and the most poised when it came to big moments. All of which are qualities of MVP candidates along with the efficiency of one too.
The former Villanova Wildcat is entering his sixth year in the league and he's currently 27 years old. His prime years are here and he has the necessary tools and teammates to propel him to a special year. Brunson's point, assist, shot attempt, and three totals have been going up each year while his turnover numbers remain relatively low. To add even more whipped cream on top, Brunson saw a career-high offensive and player efficiency rating last season. By the way, he also finished in the top 20 for value over replacement player (Nikola Jokic was first).
During the offseason, Brunson played with Team USA in the FIBA World Cup and added even more experience under his belt playing against many different styles of basketball. Plus, the Knicks didn't add anyone that is going to take away any minutes. They just added another friend of his while keeping the same core around.
Let's just leave it at this: Jalen Brunson in his first full season as the starting point guard finished eighth in offensive win shares and 13th in overall win shares. In the second year of the Knicks system, while playing the floor general, Brunson is primed to be even better.
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