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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/21/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, August 21, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 58-44-3 (+1.12 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SEA -172
SEA: Luis Castillo | CWS: Touki Touissant
Woof. We had ourselves a brutal Sunday, taking a loss on both of our F5 plays. We'll take a couple of full-game bets today, starting out in Chicago as the Mariners head up from Houston to start an early-week series.
It'll be Luis Castillo (9-7, 3.23 ERA) taking the ball for the Mariners. Castillo has been great, but is due for some regression, bringing in a 3.81 xERA and 3.71 xFIP. My model doesn't anticipate too much regression to come today, as he brings in a projected 3.63 SIERA. He'll take on a White Sox lineup that projects to just a .300 wOBA against him, on top of dealing with a potential "Coors hangover" after playing in Colorado over the weekend.
The White Sox will send Touki Touissant (1-5, 4.47 ERA) to the mound. Touissant is having a relatively solid season but does bring in a 4.95 xERA and 4.90 xFIP. After back-to-back scoreless starts, he has struggled over his last three; allowing 11 runs in just 14.1 innings. Touissant projects to a 5.14 SIERA, while the Mariners project to a .337 wOBA against the righty.
I'll back Seattle slugger Julio Rodriguez to stay hot and clean the clocks off of Touki Touissant and the White Sox tonight. We can get the M's moneyline at -172 on FanDuel, where I'll be putting 1.5 units on it.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-172), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.5 units to win 0.83 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Braves
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: ATL -198
NYM: David Peterson | ATL: Allan Winans
I'll head down south to Atlanta, where the players play, as the disappointing New York Mets head into town for an early-week NL East showdown.
The Mets will send southpaw David Peterson to the mound tonight. Peterson (3-7, 5.45 ERA) has had a poor season relative to his impressive 2022, where he finished with a 3.83 ERA and 3.31 xFIP. Perhaps it is just bad luck this season for Peterson, as it seems to be with the Mets in general. He brings in a 5.05 xERA but just a 3.78 xFIP, indicating his defense has just not played well behind him. Nevertheless, he projects to a 5.06 SIERA against the best offense in the MLB this season, who come into this one with a projected .364 wOBA.
The Braves will hand the ball over to Allan Winans (1-0, 1.59 ERA) in this one. Winans has been excellent in his first two MLB starts, most recently tossing seven scoreless innings against these same Mets last Saturday. He projects to a 3.14 SIERA, but my model is projecting the Mets to see him quite a bit better today. They come in with a projected .372 wOBA against the righty. It's very rare to see the Braves have the lower wOBA of the two teams in any given matchup, albeit not by much.
I know, you know, anyone who hasn't been living under a rock knows that the Braves can score. This historic run, especially from a power standpoint, allows them to erupt at any given time. The Mets, though, have won six of eight, and have scored quite a bit in that span. They've averaged 6.63 runs per game in that span. I'm going to back the over 10 runs here, which we can get at -108 on DraftKings.
Pick: Over 10 (-108), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.93 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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