RADIO
Not every fantasy football sleeper ends up being a breakout player. Sometimes, fantasy analysts will tout a player and then we'll just be wrong.
For example, last year there were plenty of people who thought Chiefs rookie wide receiver Skyy Moore was a strong sleeper pick, but Moore wound up with just 22 catches for 250 yards. Some sleepers just don't wake up.
Let's look at five sleepers who are going to stay asleep this season. These are players who are regarded as sleepers by a lot of people but I don't expect to see them make a huge impact in 2023.
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Nico Collins - WR, Houston Texans
I'm a Texans fan, and I've spent the past two years hoping Nico Collins was going to break out. The former Michigan Wolverine is a talented player, and last year he averaged 48.1 receiving yards per game, a nice jump from his 31.9 per game as a rookie.
But while some people view Collins as someone set for a third-year breakout, especially now that Houston has a quarterback with some upside, I just don't see it happening.
The problem? There are a few. First, let's talk about the quarterback position. Yes, C.J. Stroud has more upside than Davis Mills. But Stroud is also a rookie. We don't necessarily know if he will be effective right out of the gate.
The bigger concern, though, is that the Texans have a stronger receiving room this year. Brandin Cooks is gone, but the team added Robert Woods in his place. They also signed tight end Dalton Schultz in free agency. Add in using a third-round pick on Tank Dell and you get a much more crowded situation than you had last year, when Chris Moore was second on the Texans in targets.
Dell has looked really good in camp and the preseason game he played in. He's going to command targets, hurting Collins' upside.
Elijah Moore - WR, Cleveland Browns
After catching 43 passes for 538 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie, Elijah Moore was a popular breakout candidate last year with the Jets. And then... well, and then whatever happened last season happened.
Moore wasn't heavily involved in the Jets' offense, which led to him requesting a trade. The Jets finally shipped him to Cleveland in March.
Moore is now once again a breakout candidate with the Browns. There have been some encouraging signs in camp and the preseason that he might be one.
My concern here, though, is that I'm not sure how much to trust this Browns offense. Deshaun Watson played six games last year and looked beyond rusty, completing just 58.2% of his passes and averaging 183.7 yards per game. In his last season in 2020, he averaged 301.4 yards per game.
Maybe it's just that Watson hadn't played in a while, but there are other concerns about Moore's fantasy upside apart from his QB's accuracy issues. Amari Cooper is the clear No. 1 receiver in Cleveland, and Donovan Peoples-Jones has proven to be a reliable chain-mover. The offense is also likely revolving around Nick Chubb's rushing ability. I think Moore has a solid season, but I'm not sure he really overperforms his ADP as people expect.
Kenny Pickett - QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
I'm going to double down on what I thought after the 2022 NFL Draft: Kenny Pickett wasn't the top quarterback in that class and he should not have been a first-round pick.
The former Pitt product started 12 games as a rookie, going 245 for 389, a 63% completion percentage. He tossed seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also added 237 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Pickett's advanced metrics weren't great last year. Per PlayerProfiler, he ranked 33rd in adjusted yards per attempt and 34th in true passer rating. There were some promising signs with his deep ball, as he actually led the NFL in deep ball catchable pass rate. However, we should take that with a grain of salt since he was 23rd in the league in deep ball attempts. He was sixth in completion percentage when pressured, but was just 30th in pressured throws. Everything good seemed to have a caveat.
I think Pickett can be a solid NFL quarterback. However, his rookie year doesn't suggest he can be a top-10 quarterback, and it doesn't suggest he'll be a top-20 quarterback in 2023. I don't see the fantasy upside.
De'Von Achane - RB, Miami Dolphins
I started writing this before De'Von Achane was carted off the field in Saturday's preseason game against the Texans. If we find out that his shoulder injury is going to cost him time, then his placement here obviously becomes a moot point.
But in the event that he's good to go for all or most of the 2023 season, he earns a spot on this list because of the crowded nature of the Dolphins' backfield.
I'm not denying that Achane, a third-round pick this season, is a talented player. However, he's also on a depth chart with two other talented players, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. Those two have a lot of experience in this offense, both with the Dolphins and with head coach Mike McDaniel back when he was an assistant with the 49ers.
Last season, Mostert had 181 carries in 16 games, while Wilson had 84 in eight games. The two of them really dominated this team's backfield, especially considering Wilson started the season in San Francisco.
Let's take Chase Edmonds' 42 carries out of the equation since he was the No. 2 back until Wilson was brought in. Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin, the third and fourth backs, combined for 22 carries and seven targets. If Achane is third on the depth chart, it's just hard to see where his touches come from. Surpassing two players with experience in this system doesn't seem likely.
Sam LaPorta - TE, Detroit Lions
I've seen a fair amount of people call Sam LaPorta a sleeper for this season, but there's a pretty obvious counter to that: he's a rookie tight end.
Sure, he had a good camp. And sure, he went to Iowa, which is essentially just an assembly line that creates NFL-caliber tight ends. But he's also a rookie at the skill position with the largest learning curve.
Per StatHead, there have been 152 rookie tight ends since 2015 with at least one target. Just six of those players ended up with 500 or more receiving yards as a rookie: Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Noah Fant, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Chris Herndon.
Expecting a rookie tight end to perform at a fantasy-relevant level in his first season is a stretch. I like LaPorta, but it's hard to see him doing much this year. He should get some targets just because of how this roster is built, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Brock Wright be the team's leader in targets at the position.
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