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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, Aug. 14, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bets recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We have a nine-game MLB schedule going down this Monday evening, meaning it's officially time to get our week started on the right note!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, Aug. 14, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Logan Gilbert under 2.5 earned runs allowed (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
Logan Gilbert is coming off a dominant start over the San Diego Padres and we'll look for the right-hander to keep it going tonight in Kansas City.
Gilbet punched out 12 Padres over seven innings of shutout ball while allowing just one hit his last time out. It marked the fourth time over his last seven starts in which he allowed two earned runs or less and he has a fine opportunity to continue his fine work tonight against a weak Royals offense.
Indeed, the Royals sit 27th with a .298 wOBA versus right-handed pitching on the season. Their 85 wRC+ off of righties tells us they are 15% below the league average against right-handed pitching while their 6.5% BB% off of righties is tied with the rival White Sox for dead last in baseball.
As for Gilbert, he enters this one sporting a 3.66 ERA and an identical 3.66 SIERA on the season. The good news here is the 26-year-old sports a 3.22 ERA on the road while his 2.98 FIP and .590 OPS against on the road suggest he has been electric outside of Seattle this season.
The Mariners need wins right now and their prized righty is set to deliver a fine performance against one of the weakest offenses in baseball this evening.
Tyler Glasnow under 17.5 outs recorded (+110, DraftKings sportsbook)
The Tampa Bay Rays have seen their starting rotation get clobbered by the injury bug this season and Tyler Glasnow is once again involved.
He hasn't had the season season-ending injuries that have claimed Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and likely Shane McClanahan but the right-hander has made just 12 starts this season and was even questionable for tonight's outing against the San Francisco Giants due to a back ailment.
Therein lies the thinking here. The Rays will be a playoff team and while they battle for an AL East crown, they need Glasnow healthy when they get to the big dance. He has pitched seven innings in each of his last three starts and hasn't gone under 17.5 outs in four straight. However, he also went under 17.5 outings in seven of his first eight starts this season and he will not be overworked in this one.
While he owns a 2.76 ERA on the road this season, he also sports a 3.78 FIP and a 21% K-BB% that is well below his 31.2% clip at home. He just hasn't been nearly as good on the road and we should see some regression kick in tonight.
Add it up and Glasnow is quite unlikely to get deep enough to finish six innings of work tonight on the west coast.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tyler O'Neill over 1.5 total bases (+105, DraftKings sportsbook)
The St. Louis Cardinals' offense has been the least of their worries this season as they should be able to get to Oakland A's left-hander JP Sears tonight at home.
More specifically, look for Tyler O'Neill to have himself a night. It's been a bumpy season for the 28-year-old but he's been much better of late. O'Neill has slugged four homers over his last eight games and doubled three times in a six-game stretch prior to his home run binge. However, his work against left-handed pitching makes him an attractive option Monday night.
It's not a huge sample due to a back injury this season but O'Neill owns an .843 OPS and a .231 isolated power off of lefties this season, good for a 133 wRC+ that sits 33% above the league average. His work off of southpaws this season is reflective of his career figures as he sports an .824 OPS, .213 ISO, and a 129 wRC+ in his career against left-handed pitching.
At plus money, O'Neill is carrying plenty of value into a matchup with a left-hander sporting a 5.16 xFIP on the road, a figure far worse than his 3.82 ERA outside of Oakland this season.
Adolis Garcia over 1.5 total bases (+130, DraftKings sportsbook)
Something is amiss here.
This doesn't have anything to do with Angels left-hander Patrick Sandoval, who sports a 3.86 ERA on the season and has allowed just a .687 OPS to right-handed hitters this season, but rather Garcia's work against southpaws in addition to his +130 odds.
Garcia enters this matchup sporting an .869 OPS, .226 ISO, and a 141 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching this season. Overall, Garcia has hit 29 homers and 24 doubles on the season, giving him 53 extra-base hits in 115 games. In other words, he is getting over 1.5 total bases in nearly half of his games this season and here he is sitting at +130 to do so against a left-handed Sandoval.
Let's also remember the Angels' bullpen sits 21st with a 4.34 ERA and 26th with a 4.54 FIP on the season. Add it up and Garcia should be able to deliver big-time value this evening.
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