Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - Wyndham Championship

It is officially do-or-die time on the PGA Tour. With the first round of the playoffs getting started next week in Memphis, the Wyndham Championship is the last chance players will have to accrue valuable FedEx Cup points and put their names into the ring in the three-week race to crown our 2023 TOUR Champion. 

Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, and Gary Woodland are just a few big names coming to Greensboro looking to point their way into a playoff birth, while young stars like Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, and Sam Bennett are in must-win territory if they want to extend their promising rookie campaigns. 

Standing in their way are a crew of Wyndham Championship ringers who would love nothing more than to add to their extensive resumes at this historic track. The chips are down, and the stars are out in Greensboro this week - here's everything you need to know for the PGA Tour's unofficial wild card weekend for Sedgefield Country Club!

The Golf Course

Sedgefield CC - Par 70; 7,131 yards

Although Sedgefield will always hold a special place in this North Carolinians heart, I wouldn’t call it a particularly distinctive course on the Tour rotation. Very much like the Harbour Town’s, Sea Island’s, and Wai’alae’s of the world, Sedgefield falls in the category of your classical, meat & potatoes, short, southeastern Bermudagrass Par 70. There aren’t a lot of nuances to be found in the routing, and the crossover on leaderboards is quite stark year over year. 

Although Sedgefield will never be confused with some of the more eye-catching stops on the schedule, its uniformity and adherence to a consistent skillset makes it a dream for those of us in the business of forecasting results. One look at the past champions list should tell you everything you need to know about the profile I intend on building this week:

Since 2015, we’ve seen the likes of Tom Kim, Kevin Kisner, Jim Herman, J.T. Poston, Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim, and a 52-year-old Davis Love find the winners circle in Greensboro - eight names you’d rarely ever see at the top of a driving distance leaderboard. Instead, these players get the job done with precision off-the-tee, quality wedge play, and an ability to find comfort on Donald Ross’s tricky Bermuda greens. 

If you’re only interested in the key stats to look for, that final sentence is about all you’ll ever need in a Wyndham preview. Sedgefield is among the simplest courses to model on the PGA Tour, as its routing doesn’t exactly present a ton of room to maneuver. Narrow fairways and forced layups will cause even the most confident drivers of the ball to lay back to designated landing areas, and with a whopping eight holes fitting into a 40-yard bucket (405-445 yards), you can expect a lot of similar yardages into these greens.

Sedgefield also features the first instance we’ve seen of Bermuda rough since the U.S. Open, and if you’ve ever played summer golf in the southeast, you’ll know just how treacherous it can get even at shorter lengths. The 2.5” cut at Sedgefield is more than enough to put doubt into the minds of these professionals, and on a layout that is particularly conducive to low scores, driving the ball off the fairway is the quickest way to go on the defense. 

As such, driving distance is as mitigated around Sedgefield as it is at any other course on Tour, and over the last two years, nobody that ranked inside the Top 25 in Distance on the week managed to finish inside the Top 10 on the leaderboard. On the other hand, four of the top seven finishers on last year’s leaderboard also ranked inside the top 10 in Driving Accuracy for the week.

In my modeling, I’ll be looking not only at a player's overall ability to find fairways, but also his driving proficiency around similar club-down tracks. If a player is consistently able to gain strokes off-the-tee at venues like Harbour Town, Innisbrook, or Wai’alae, I’m confident he can overcome any sort of off-the-tee test Sedgefield will throw his way.

Although driving accuracy has been a solid indicator, approach play remains the king of the two ball-striking stats when projecting success at Sedgefield. Winners over time have gained an average of 5.5 shots on approach over the four days (compared to just 2.5 off-the-tee), and only one player since 2017 (Brice Garnett, 2019), has managed to finish inside the Top 10 while losing strokes to the field with his iron play.

As I mentioned earlier, Sedgefield’s uniformity within its routing and its insistence to play to certain points makes it a dream when projecting the approach yardages these players will have into the greens. Nearly 30% of historical approach shots have come within a 25-yard range (150-175), and nearly half of all approach shots have come from 125-175 yards. 

These two proximity buckets are far and away my most important metrics when establishing long-term baselines, but if you’re looking for a few more recent data points, I find quite a bit of crossover between TPC Deer Run and TPC River Highlands in terms of the emphasis they place on short-iron play and driving accuracy.

In terms of the role that short game will play in determining this week's winner, you can essentially copy and paste what I typically say at golf courses that routinely see scores in the 20-under range. These are far from the easiest greens to scramble on, but they are quite big for a golf course Sedgefield’s length (~6000 sq. Feet on Average). 

With players having 8-irons, 9-irons, and wedges into most greens, I’d expect GIR %’s to hover in the 70-75% range - with some of the better ball-strikers reaching marks in the 80s. Say it with me: If you’re having to rely on your short game around Sedgefield, you’re probably not in contention regardless of how good you’re able to scramble.

​​Onto the greens, which I believe are far and away Sedgefield’s greatest defense against the world’s best. While not as severe as the famous turtle-backs we’ll see at Pinehurst next year, Sedgefield’s greens do typically run at a 12-13 on the Stimpmeter and feature a fair amount of undulation when compared with your traditional PGA Birdie fest. In fact, only Augusta National, St. Andrews, and Quail Hollow conceded fewer made putts of over 15 feet during the 2022 PGA Tour season.

With as benign as Sedgefield’s layout is from tee-to-green, Putting is one of my key differentiators this week and I’m weighing it as highly as I have all season. Along with Driving Accuracy and Wedge play, Bermuda putting is one of the main throughlines you’ll see on the past champions list. If I can’t trust you to routinely make putts on fast, slopey Bermuda greens, it’s a big strike against your prospects in my eyes.

Key Stats Roundup: 

• Positional Driving Acumen (SG: OTT + Good Drive % + Fairway % on similar positional golf courses - Innisbrook, Harbour Town, Sedgefield, Sea Island, Waialae, Mayakoba, etc.).
• Recent iron form - SG: APP, Birdie Chances Created, BoB % over a player’s Last 36 rounds
• Long-term Pedigree putting on Fast Bermuda Greens
• Long-term proximity splits from 150-175; smaller weight on 125-150 & 175-200
• Sedgefield/Comp. Course History

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be imperative to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside where he is on the golf course and which holes he still has left to play. For the first time in a while, live bettors will get a golf course that features a stark contrast in difficulty within its routing. The front nine is far-and-away the best chance a player will have to rack up birdies, as every hole but the Par 3 7th carries a birdie or better rate of at least 15%. 

The front nine also features the easiest hole on the golf course (Par 5 5th - playing a whopping 0.64 shots under par), as well as the easiest Par 4 on the course (374-yard 8th hole - playing 0.24 shots under par and conceding bridies at a 29% clip). Once players make the turn, however, Sedgefield does begin to bite back. Holes 10, 11, 12, and 14 play to a cumulative 0.45 shots over par, and carry Bogey or Worse rates of 19. 23, 18, and 24% respectively. After a short breather through 15, 16, and 17, Sedgefield closes with the brutally difficult 507-yard, Par 4 18th hole. 

With a Bogey or Worse rate of 28% and a scoring average of 4.2, this is the most difficult hole within Sedgefield’s routing. I’d advise caution if you’re looking to add a player in the live market who hasn’t yet reached this daunting final hurdle. With nearly a full stroke difference between the scoring averages of the two nines (33.92 vs 34.86), Sedgefield offers some of the clearest buy-low opportunities we’ve seen in some time on back-nine starters. With so many clear chances on the front nine, there are sure to be some quick scores popping up at the start of Round 1.

With many of the bigger names on Thursday morning starting on the back-nine (Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Sam Burns), it’s certainly worth monitoring their progress through the inward half. I’d be more than willing to buy the dip on a “sluggish” start as they make the turn.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Russell Henley (25-1)

Back on a course that demands Driving Accuracy, Short Iron Proficiency, Bermuda Putting? If you follow golf statistics to any degree, Henley should be among the first names that pop into your mind. He’s finished 5th, 7th, and 9th in his last 3 Sedgefield Appearances, and a scroll through his top career results will inundate you with comp courses:

• Win and Runner-up at Waialae
• Win at Mayakoba
• Runner-up at Deer Run
• 3 Top 10s at Sea Island
• Win and four additional Top 20s at PGA National
• 2 T10s at Harbour Town
• 2 Top 20s in his last two starts at Sawgrass 

The list from his 11-year career goes on and on, but Henley’s present-day results could be even more compelling in his case for his first Wyndham Championship: Russ has gained at least 6 shots on Approach in three of his last five starts and is the PGA Tour leader in driving accuracy. Bermuda is far and away his best historical putting surface, and he’s gained strokes on Sedgefield’s greens in three of his last four starts in Greensboro. Whereas Hideki might be a more prolific ball striker and Sungjae might showcase a more reliable short game, Henley combines every facet as well as anyone in this field. I had the three of them in a dead heat at the top of my projected odds board, so I’m more than happy to grab a five-point discount on the UGA alum.

Sam Burns (30-1)

I’ve been a leading skeptic of Sam Burns in 2023 as his ball-striking numbers have taken a step back from the breakout we saw in 2021/22. However, if there were ever a spot to take a shot on the LSU alum, it would have to be back on his beloved Bermuda - at a golf course that doesn’t exactly demand world-class T2G play. Burns has historically dominated these softer, wedge-intensive courses - from Austin CC and CC of Jackson, to PGA West and TPC Summerlin. 

His two Valspar wins came in some of the easiest conditions we’ve ever seen at Innisbrook, and his best results of 2023 have come on shorter, club-down, positional tracks (15th at Heritage, 6th at Valspar, 6th at Colonial). The putter continues to be one of the elite tools in the game: gaining nearly 3 shots/tournament over his last five starts, and one of the best driving performances of his career came in his only start here at Sedgefield (+4.6 SG: OTT in a T13 finish in 2020). 

I remain skeptical about Sam’s chances against the best in the world around a premier ballpark, but in this field, on a golf course that shouldn’t put up much resistance from T2G, 30-1 is as enticing a price as I’ve seen on Burns in some time.

Denny McCarthy (35-1)

With 4 Top 8 finishes since the start of May (three of which came at elevated events), Denny is long overdue to capture that elusive first Tour victory. He’s gained strokes from T2G in 10 of his last 11 PGA starts, which is not only his best career ball-striking stretch by a mile, but it’s a particularly scary thought when you consider he might be in the midst of the best putting stretch of his career as well. That’s right. The best putter on the planet over the last five years is on track to crush his previous season-long baselines.

 McCarthy has gained 6.1, 5.3, 3.2, 11.3, 1.3, 4.2, and 8.7 shots putting over his last seven starts - nearly 6 shots PER TOURNAMENT. He’s as elite as they come from inside 15 feet, and with the number of wedges and short irons I expect guys to have into these greens, McCarthy will have ample opportunities to flex that putting prowess. He’s already logged finishes of 9th, 15th, and 22nd at Sedgefield long before he broke out as a Top 25 player in the World. 35-1 is a really stellar price for a guy carrying this much confidence.

J.T. Poston (35-1)

He’s not quite doing it at the same caliber of events as Denny, but the 2019 Wyndham Champion has sneakily registered 3 Top Six finishes over his last four starts. From Harbour Town and Deer Run, to Sedgefield and River Highlands, Poston’s game has always been tailored to these shorter, positional venues - and the recent reawakening of his biggest historical weapon gives me increasing confidence that J.T. can find Sedgefield’s winning formula once again.

Poston has gained nearly a stroke per round with the putter since the Memorial Tournament in June (seven starts), and the 5.4 shots he gained on Approach last week aren’t just the best iron performance he’s had since last year's Travelers, they’re also deflated by a disastrous waterball on his 72nd hole. Apart from the 8 he made on 18 Sunday afternoon, J.T. was in line to register the second-best iron week of his entire career. He’s trending up in a big way, and now just an hour and a half from his childhood home of Hickory, he’ll have all the local support as the state of North Carolina tries to capture its 4th Wyndham Championship since 2011.

Cameron Davis (55-1)

It’s far from the first time I’ve made this case for Cam Davis, but with a 7th at Heritage and a 6th at Sawgrass earlier this year, I still maintain that despite his incredible length, the Aussie’s best chances to win on Tour will come at courses that suit his positional playstyle. Davis ranks 2nd in this field in SG: OTT on Sedgefield Comp Courses, and in both the long and short term, Cam projects as one of the most dangerous iron players in the field:

• 8th in my key proximity range from 150-175; 10th in my overall weighted proximity model
• Coming off two of the best Approach weeks of his season at the 3M and Rocket Mortgage (+3.9 and +5.3)

Davis’ perpetual Achilles heel has been the flat stick, but the Donald Ross greens at Sedgefield have not given him any trouble over his career. Davis has gained 5.2 and 4.8 shots putting in two Wyndham starts, and keep in mind that his only other PGA Tour victory came at a Ross design in Detroit. He’s got as much upside as anyone outside of the top 6-7 names on the board, and at 55-1, I can’t help but take another shot.

Alex Smalley (6o-1)

We haven’t seen Smalley since he bombed as chalk at the Scottish Open, but when you combine recent form in my key stats and comfort around this course, it’s hard to do much better than a Sedgefield member who leads the field in both SG: APP and Birdie Chances Created over the last three months.

Outside of a tough two days in Scotland,  Smalley has gained strokes on approach in 12 consecutive starts and logged splits of +8, +7.3, and +5.8 at Deer Run, Detroit GC, and River Highlands respectively. Sedgefield’s layout compares pretty favorably to each of those tracks, and given Alex’s claim that he’s played over 75 rounds of golf around this place in a 2021 interview, no one should be surprised if he regains that elite form around these familiar confines. 

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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