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We're back at it on a Monday, breaking down another slate. We have hit the dog days of summer as most trade deadlines for fantasy baseball are approaching. This is where the actual DFS players thrive, as most are worn out from the daily grind of researching and making lineups daily. Not us over here at RotoBaller. We are prepared for the rest of the season and looking to win more slates.
I will cover the eight-game slate starting at 7:05 pm in this article. As mentioned above, today's slate has minimal pitching options. There are two arms that I expect to get the bulk of ownership of tonight. The issue is they are my two favorite arms on tonight's slate. There is an obvious opportunity to get some leverage by fading these two arms, but I don't know if that makes sense.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/24/2023 and the slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Castillo, SEA at MIN ($10,600 DK, $10,800 FD)
I want to start by saying that on any other slate, I think Castillo is a bit overpriced. Pitching is so scarce today that I will pay almost $11,000 for Castillo. Castillo enters today's start with a 3.58 SIERA, 27.7% K%, 15.4% SwStr%, and a 6.3% BB%. Over his last five starts, he has a 3.42 SIERA, 25.2% K%, 16.0% SwSt%, and a 2.4% BB%.
Castillo will take on the Minnesota Twins tonight on the road. The Twins own the highest K% in baseball against right-hand pitching with a 27.4% rate. They hold a 107 wRC+, .323 wOBA, .422 SLG, and a 9.2% BB%. These numbers are all in the top half of baseball, making this the ultimate boom-or-bust matchup because of the K rate. Over the last 30 days, the Twins own a 28.1% K%, 123 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .468 SLG, and 9.0% BB%.
The other encouraging part of this matchup is Castillo's splits. He has been much better at limiting damage to right-handed bats. He has a .256 wOBA and a .144 ISO to right-handed batters this season compared to a .324 wOBA and a .221 ISO to lefties. The twins will send five to six righties to the plate today. Let's pay attention when the lineup comes out to confirm, but if there are at least five righties, I will be comfortable paying the price for Castillo.
Logan Allen, CLE vs KC ($8,700 DK, $9,400 FD)
I expect Logan Allen to get some ownership here today because of the matchup with the Royals. I do, though, think it is entirely warranted. He is the safe SP2 on today's slate. In GPPs, I would not mind the fade, but in cash and single-entry formats, I will be locking him in.
The young lefty in his rookie campaign owns a 4.15 SIERA, 24.3% K%, 11.7% SwStr%, and an 8.6% BB%. He has been tremendous over his last three starts. Allen, over that time frame, has a 3.29 SIERA, 35.3% K%, 10.2% SwStr%, and an 11.8% BB%. He has struck out right-handed bats at a 41.9% clip. The Royals will send at least seven righties to the plate tonight, giving Allen immense upside.
The Royals are a well below-average team against left-hand pitching this season. On the year, they own a 24.4% K%, 88 wRC+, .302 wOBA, and a .383 SLG. Not only does this matchup give Allen a ton of strikeouts upside, but he has every opportunity to limit damage and pitch deep into this game.
Also consider: Yu Darvish, Kenta Maeda, Patrick Corbin, Quinn Priester
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Ketel Marte - 2B, ARZ vs. Adam Wainwright ($5,500 DK, $3,900 FD)
Marte is one of the most expensive players today, but it is warranted. Over his last 30 days, he has been on a tear. He has a .416 wOBA and a .371 ISO against right-hand pitching. As we will discuss later, his opponent Adam Wainwright has been crushed by lefties this season. Marte is the best bat for the D-Backs today.
Brandon Belt - 1B, TOR vs. Michael Grove ($3,100 DK, $2,900 FD)
Brandon Belt squares off against Michael Grove, who allows hard contact to left-handed batters. Grove owns a .417 wOBA, .225 ISO, and a 59.8% hard hit against lefties. Belt is the best left-handed bat in a lineup full of righties for the Blue Jays. He owns a .368 wOBA and a .193 ISO this season against the split and has been even better over the last 30 days with a .240 ISO.
Nathaniel Lowe- 1B, TEX vs. Brandon Bielak ($3,800 DK, $3,400 FD)
Lowe is starting to heat up, and the price on DraftKings is yet to catch up. Over the last 30 days, he has had a .422 wOBA and a .257 ISO against right-hand pitching. Bielak owns a .358 wOBA, .190 ISO, and a 49.4% hard hit against the split. The only concern here is Lowes ground ball rate against an extreme ground ball pitcher in Bielak, but I am willing to look past it and hope Lowe continues on his heater.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Lane Thomas - OF, WAS vs. Karl Kauffmann ($4,800 DK, $3,500 FD)
How good of a year is Lane Thomas having? He has to be one of the best players for a contending team to go get to bolster their outfield. Tonight he faces Karl Kauffmann, who has a .552 wOBA and a .257 ISO to righties this season. Thomas has been tremendous against lefties this season but has hit righties well. He has a .327 wOBA and a .169 ISO this season against the split.
Randal Grichuk - OF, COL vs. Patrick Corbin ($3,600 DK, $2,800 FD)
I love the value of Randal Grichuk tonight as a one-off against Patrick Corbin. Grichuk owns a .402 wOBA and a .224 ISO against left-hand pitching. Corbin has been susceptible to righties his entire career, but he owns a .365 wOBA, .174 ISO, and a 50.8% hard hit this season. If you land in this pricing tier for your last roster spot, I urge you to plug in Grichuk.
Dominic Canzone - OF, ARZ vs. Adam Wainwright ($2,200 DK, $2,100 FD)
If he breaks the lineup, the former Ohio State Buckeyes product Dom "Barrell" Canzone is my favorite punt option on the board today. Wainwright is susceptible to left-handed bats, and Canzone, in June before his call-up, was slashing .500/.537 with 11 extra-base hits.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Adam Wainwright
Yes, I understand Wainwright is coming back from the IL. I also understand that his numbers may be skewed because of injury, but I believe this is just who Adam Wainwright is now. He has a 5.81 SIERA, 1.74 HR/9, .359 BAA, and a 7.5% BB% on the season. There has been a lot of traffic on the bases, and I don't expect it to stop against the league's best offenses against right-hand pitching.
The Diamonbacks own a 106 wRC+, .332 wOBA, .440 SLG and a 9.0% BB%. Wainwright has been crushed by left-handed bats this season. He has a .493 wOBA, .327 ISO, and a 47.3% hard-hit rate. The Diamondbacks will platoon some lefties that will do much damage tonight and get to Wainwright early and often.
Favorite Plays: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Alek Thomas, Dominic Canzone
2. Toronto Blue Jays vs. Michael Grove
3. Texas Rangers vs. Brandon Bielak
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