NFL Coaching Matters - Fantasy Football Value Projections for AFC North Includes Joe Mixon, J.K. Dobbins, Odell Beckham Jr., more

August 13, 2023

NFL Head Coaches and Offensive Coordinators can have a major impact on fantasy football values. This article by Eli Grabanski brings up historical data on key AFC North coaches.

After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.

Today's article will look at the fantasy track record of each team's head coaches and offensive coordinators in the AFC North to help pinpoint potential fantasy values. The Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers will maintain their key coaches from 2022. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens will be making a change in play-callers for the 2023 season.

Without further ado, let's dive into the coaches of the AFC North!

Cincinnati Bengals

2023 Head Coach: Zac Taylor

Zac Taylor has been the Cincinnati Bengals' head coach since 2019 and also spent five games as the Miami Dolphins' offensive coordinator back in 2015. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Cincinnati Bengals players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Zac Taylor's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Brian Callahan

Brian Callahan has been the Cincinnati Bengals' offensive coordinator since 2019. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Cincinnati Bengals players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Brian Callahan's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan's Takeaways & Expectations

Since Zac Taylor has been the primary play-caller for the Bengals and Brian Callahan has only worked under Taylor as an offensive coordinator, we will talk primarily about the offense Taylor has liked to run over the course of his career in this section.

Looking at Taylor's data for 0.5 PPR formats, there are a couple of things to pay attention to. First, Zac Taylor's offense has been pretty mediocre in terms of getting fantasy production out of the running back room as a whole. Secondly, Taylor's wide receiver room has been pretty good over the course of his career – particularly in the past two years. Lastly, Zac Taylor's tight-end rooms have consistently been bad over the course of his time as an offensive play-caller and they have yet to have a season where they even performed at an average level.

Based on all of this information:

• Joe Mixon is going off the board in the right spot right now in the low-end RB1/high-end RB2 range. He's not likely to have a top-five fantasy RB season in this offense, but at the same time, he's a pretty safe bet to at least be an RB2 since Taylor has generally preferred the bell-cow approach to the position.
• The Bengals' wide receivers are once again a safe buy in this offense. Ja'Marr Chase is a clear top-five fantasy WR, Tee Higgins will be a high-end WR2, and Tyler Boyd will have the occasional FLEX week.
• Don't waste your time drafting Irv Smith Jr. or Drew Sample...they aren't going to be a high enough priority in this offense to end up being better than a matchup-based TE streamer.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Joe Burrow, Trevor Siemian, Jake Browning, Joe Mixon, Chase Brown, Chris Evans, Trayveon Williams, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Charlie Jones, Trenton Irwin, Drew Sample, and Irv Smith Jr.

Baltimore Ravens

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Todd Monken

The Baltimore Ravens shook up their offensive coaching staff this offseason, moving on from Greg Roman and hiring Todd Monken to be the team's newest offensive coordinator. At the NFL level, Monken has previously served as an offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2016-2018) and the Cleveland Browns (2019). Given his offensive background, let's take a look at some of Todd Monken's team offensive statistics over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator role to get a better understanding of how the Ravens may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Todd Monken's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Todd Monken's Takeaways & Expectations

Because Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has been more focused on defense and special teams over the course of his career, we will look at Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken's info in this section.

There are a few things we can take away from Todd Monken's 0.5 PPR data. First, Monken's running back room has generally been below-average in terms of fantasy production over the course of his career. Second, Todd Monken's wide receiver rooms have been pretty consistently average to above-average fantasy producers. Third, in terms of fantasy production, Todd Monken's tight end rooms have been generally a little above average during his career.

Looking ahead to next season, it's likely:

• J.K. Dobbins is limited to being a FLEX play than a guy you want to count on each week. This offense most likely won't be very running back-friendly and Dobbins hasn't really proven himself to be a good pass-catcher yet either.
• The team can actually support two fantasy-relevant wide receivers for the first time in the Lamar Jackson era, with the most likely scenario being that Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers perform around FLEX play levels.
• Mark Andrews takes a slight dip in fantasy production from the Greg Roman era, but should still be one of the best fantasy tight ends in the league and worth his current ADP.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Josh Johnson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell, Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, Devin Duvernay, Nelson Agholor, James Proche II, Andy Isabella, Laquon Treadwell, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely

Cleveland Browns

2023 Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski

The Cleveland Browns hired Kevin Stefanski to be their head coach back in 2020 following his 19-game stint as the Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator (2018-2019). Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Stefanski's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Browns may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Kevin Stefanski's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Alex Van Pelt

Alex Van Pelt has been the Cleveland Browns' offensive coordinator since 2020 and also previously served as an offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills back in 2009. Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Van Pelt's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Cleveland Browns may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Alex Van Pelt's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Kevin Stefanski & Alex Van Pelt's Takeaways & Expectations

Kevin Stefanski has been a mixed bag for fantasy purposes over the course of his 68-game career as an offensive play-caller.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Kevin Stefanski's data for 0.5 PPR fantasy leagues. First, Kevin Stefanski's running back room has consistently been one of the best ones in the league. Second, Kevin Stefanski's offenses generally don't do a great job of getting fantasy production out of the wide receiver position...in fact, he has yet to see his wide receiver room reach even the NFL league averages. Third, Stefanski's tight end room has generally been above-average for fantasy, with the group performing better than the league averages every year he's been an NFL play-caller.

Besides Kevin Stefanski, we also should take a brief look at offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt's previous fantasy offenses in case he has to take over play-calling duties at some point in 2023.

While most of the information is the same as Kevin Stefanski's profile, there are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Alex Van Pelt's data for 0.5 PPR fantasy leagues. First, Van Pelt's running back rooms have generally been above average over the course of his four seasons in an offensive coordinator role. Second, Alex Van Pelt's wide receiver rooms have been abysmal in nearly every year he's had a prominent offensive coaching role. Third, in the one year that Alex Van Pelt didn't work with Kevin Stefanski, the tight end room was abysmal for fantasy purposes.

Based on this information:

• Nick Chubb should remain as one of the highest floor fantasy running backs in the league and a lock to finish between the mid-RB1 and high-end RB2 range of running backs as long as he's healthy. In addition, Jerome Ford and Demetric Felton Jr. are worth monitoring late in drafts.
• Even with the rumors of the Browns aiming to be more pass-friendly next year, Amari Cooper is the only one we can trust to be fantasy relevant in 2023 based on Stefanski's track record.
• If you don't go get one of the premier fantasy tight ends, David Njoku is a fine player to take a gamble on at his current ADP.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Deshaun Watson, Joshua Dobbs, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Kellen Mond, Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford, Demetric Felton Jr., John Kelly Jr., Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cedric Tillman, Marquise Goodwin, David Bell, Anthony Schwartz, Jakeem Grant, David Njoku, Jordan Atkins, and Harrison Bryant

Pittsburgh Steelers

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Matt Canada

Matt Canada has been the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator since 2021 after being a long-time offensive play-caller at the college level prior. Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Canada's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Pittsburgh Steelers may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Matt Canada's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Matt Canada's Takeaways & Expectations

Because head coach Mike Tomlin is more well-known for being a defensive-minded coach, this section will primarily focus on offensive coordinator Matt Canada's previous fantasy impact on his teams.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Matt Canada's data for 0.5 PPR fantasy leagues.

First, Canada's running back room has been below average in both of his years as the Steelers' offensive coordinator. Second, his wide receiver room has had one solid year and one awful year in terms of fantasy production. Third, Matt Canada's tight end room has been slightly above-average in both seasons he's been the Steelers' play-caller.

Based on this information:

• Najee Harris needs to maintain his bell-cow workload to be a decent fantasy asset. If Jaylen Warren turns this into a committee there might not be a startable fantasy running back in Pittsburgh.
• There most likely won't be a WR1 coming from this offense, but Diontae Johnson and George Pickens have a good shot at being FLEX-caliber plays on a week-to-week basis.
• Pat Freiermuth will be in the mid to low-end TE1 discussion again in 2023 and is a solid gamble at his current ADP.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Tanner Morgan, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Anthony McFarland Jr., Jason Huntley, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson II, Calvin Austin III, Miles Boykin, Darnell Washington, and Pat Freiermuth.

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles

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