Michael Pittman Jr. 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook – Are You In or Out?

Rob takes a deep dive into Michael Pittman Jr.'s fantasy football value to determine if you should draft him in 2023.

Michael Pittman Jr.'s career thus far has been anything but easy. He missed time due to a calf strain and a concussion during his rookie season in 2020. Since then, he has been forced to catch passes from aging quarterbacks who are well past their prime. The Indianapolis Colts have attempted to stay relevant each passing year by picking up whatever castoff quarterback was available that season. It was Philip Rivers in 2020, Carson Wentz was the choice in 2021, and last year it was Matt Ryan.

Disappointed by the results – surprise, surprise – the Colts finally elected to go a different way. This offseason, they selected Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Long term, this was a great idea. Short term, it certainly creates more questions regarding the fantasy football value of the team's pass-catchers. You can find previous editions of the "Are You In or Out?" series here:

• Travis Etienne: In or Out Series Edition
• J.K. Dobbins: In or Out Series Edition
• Kyle Pitts: In or Out Series Edition
• George Pickens: In or Out Series Edition
• D.J. Moore: In or Out Series Edition

Pittman has been a productive receiver over the past two seasons, accumulating 270 targets, 187 receptions, and 2,007 yards. Despite the impressive stat line, he finished as the WR27 and WR30 in half-PPR points per game (PPG). Now, he enters the 2023 season with an Underdog ranking of WR29 and an average draft position (ADP) of 56.7. This requires fantasy managers to spend a fifth-round pick on Pittman. We will evaluate whether fantasy managers should be in or out at that price. With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, don't forget to use the promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

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What Does Michael Pittman Jr. Bring?

We'll start with the good first -- Michael Pittman Jr. the player. Considering what he’s had to work with at quarterback and his entire team's offensive structure, Pittman has done well to establish himself as a quality fantasy receiver. However, his performance has been somewhat disappointing and lacks an elite ceiling.

From the table above, you can see where he ranks in several of the most important fantasy football metrics. Even in his best season in 2021, Pittman finished as WR27 in half-PPR PPG, only slightly improving upon his current WR29 ranking. One thing that stands out is the high number of targets Pittman has received in back-to-back seasons. However, relative to his targets, he has failed to accumulate yardage at a similar rate largely due to poor quarterback play.

The following chart is courtesy of the wonderful work done by Reception Perception and Matt Harmon. You can read Michael Pittman Jr.'s 2022 player profile here.

His Reception Perception chart showcases a highly productive receiver who consistently creates separation and gets open at a high rate. This correlates with his sheer target volume and the target shares he has had in the past two seasons. Displayed in the table below are some of his efficiency metrics from the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

As you examine the table, there are some warning signs that fantasy managers can start to identify. Specifically, looking at his average depth of target (aDot), which is alarmingly low. This aligns with his high number of targets and receptions, but it doesn't quite match up with his receiving yardage total. It all comes full circle when looking at the number of routes he has run, according to Reception Perception.

The slant, curl, and dig routes accounted for 52.3% of the routes he ran. However, downfield routes such as the post, corner, and nine routes accounted for 18.4% of his total routes run. Pittman's aDot and low yards per reception (YPR) align perfectly with how the Colts have utilized him. This kind of usage limits his yardage total and makes him highly dependent on receptions and PPR scoring.

Matt Harmon of Reception Perception is very high on Pittman's talent and his potential to be a high-caliber receiver in the right situation, stating:

"Pittman has proven over the last two seasons he’s a high-level separator. He’s finished with a 74.3 and 74.2% success rate vs. man coverage in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and cleared 82% success rate vs. man and 81% success rate vs. press in both years. Those are some incredible results. We just need this guy paired with good, steady quarterback play for once in his career."

Therein lies the problem: "We just need this guy paired with good, steady quarterback play for once in his career." Fantasy managers should be cautious about expecting that to happen this season, which brings us to the bad.

How Does Michael Pittman Jr.'s Game Mesh With a Rookie Quarterback?

It's no secret that Pittman has been limited by the play of his quarterback, and this will likely continue in the upcoming season. While Richardson is an exciting long-term prospect with all the tools to be an elite quarterback, the simple truth is that he's far from being a consistent passer based on what we saw from him at Florida. That's understandable, as very few rookie quarterbacks are, but this acknowledgment does impact Pittman's fantasy football value for 2023.

According to PlayerProfiler last year, 85.1% of Pittman's targets were deemed catchable, which was the 11th-highest mark among receivers. Fantasy managers should prepare for this number to significantly drop in the upcoming season with Richardson at quarterback. The following image is from Sports Info Solution's 2023 NFL Draft Leaderboard, which provides advanced statistics on incoming NFL prospects.

Sports Info Solutions evaluated 14 quarterback prospects. As seen from the tables above, Richardson finished last in completion percentage and catchable percentage. Although it is not visible, he also finished last in on-target percentage. Among the 14 quarterbacks evaluated by Sports Info Solutions, he was the only one with a completion percentage below 60% and an on-target percentage below 70%. In both of these categories, he lagged seven and five percentage points behind the next closest passer. This is a major concern for Pittman.

While the quarterback play in Indianapolis was limiting, Pittman's targets were mostly accurate, as shown above. This helped him achieve a catch rate of over 70%, which was beneficial in PPR-scoring leagues. However, he had an average 9.3 YPR, ranking 98th among receivers. Despite his 99 receptions, Pittman finished with only 925 yards, ranking eighth in receptions but only 24th in yards. Pittman’s 6.9 aDot ranked 92^nd among receivers. This is the type of receiver he is.

In 2021, he ranked 71^st with an 8.8 aDot. He excels as a possession receiver on short and intermediate routes but is not a downfield threat. Unfortunately, this play style does not align well with Richardson's strengths.

The Anthony Richardson Effect

Who Anthony Richardson is as a player will have an impact on the Indianapolis offense. Last year, the Colts ranked 10th in pass attempts per game with 35.5. If history is any indication, the 2023 Colts won't come close to that mark. During the offseason, the Colts hired Shane Steichen as their offensive coordinator. Steichen previously worked with the Chargers and Eagles, where he played a role in the development of Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. His track record speaks for itself, making his hiring a great move for Richardson's long-term prospects.

However, when it comes to Pittman and the other pass-catchers in Indianapolis, there are reasons to be cautious. When comparing Richardson's playing style and strengths to Herbert and Hurts, he undoubtedly resembles Hurts more. They are both dynamic runners, but there were concerns about their ability to be reliable, consistent, and productive pocket passers. Although Hurts proved those concerns wrong this past season, many questioned his abilities after the 2021 season.

This is relevant to Richardson because it's likely that Steichen will construct an offense similar to the one he had in Philadelphia during Hurts' first season as the primary starter. In that year, the Eagles ranked 29th in pass attempts per game with 29.8, a significant contrast to their average of 35.5 this past season. This decline would result in 97 fewer targets over the season, which is another red flag.

Even with talented players like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert on the roster and with Hurts emerging as one of the top passers in the NFL and an MVP candidate, the Eagles only averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game. This ranked 24th in the league and was still 4.3 attempts behind the 2022 Colts. Indianapolis ended the season with 73 more passes than Philadelphia. Considering the concerns about how well Richardson and Pittman will work together, fantasy managers should expect a significant decrease in the Colts' pass attempts this season.

Are You In or Out?

Fantasy managers should have serious concerns about investing in Pittman for the upcoming season. There are several significant red flags, including the issues with quarterback play and the potential decrease in team passing volume. But it doesn't stop there.

In 2021, the Colts' second and third leading targets were Zach Pascal and running back Nyheim Hines. Last season, it was Parris Campbell and rookie Alec Pierce. The competition for targets is expected to be much stronger this year. With Pierce entering his second season, he should show improvement, and third-round pick Josh Downs could be a better option than Campbell. Additionally, rookie tight end Jelani Woods, a third-round pick from 2022, is also expected to perform better. The improved talent around Pittman could negatively impact his target share.

If the Colts' passing volume drops to around 30 attempts per game (similar to the 2021 Eagles), and Pittman maintains a 24.5% target share (a 1% decrease from his totals in 2021 and 2022), he would finish with approximately 125 targets. This would be the lowest number of targets he has seen in the past two seasons and 16 fewer than last year.

Considering the anticipated decrease in catchable targets due to Richardson's accuracy issues in college, it becomes extremely difficult, if not impossible, to envision a scenario where Pittman surpasses his current WR29 ranking. He was unable to outperform this ranking last year and barely achieved it in 2021. There seems to be a very limited upside for Pittman this season. For that reason, fantasy managers should avoid investing in him at his current price.

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