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Wide Receiver Risers and Fallers for Fantasy Football - Analyzing Under-the-Radar Signings

D.J. Chark - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

NFL free agency has mostly ended, though players will continue to trickle onto new teams as the summer rolls along.

The wide receiver position saw some big names on the move this offseason. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen, Odell Beckham Jr., and Allen Lazard all found new homes. But those guys have been discussed plenty already. I want to focus on some wide receiver names that might have flown a little under the radar.

Let's look at five wide receiver signings that flew under the radar and decide if those players are risers and fallers in 2023 based on their new situation.

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Jakobi Meyers - Las Vegas Raiders

Considering Meyers signed the second-biggest deal of any free agent receiver, he shouldn't be "under the radar," but I haven't really heard as much talk about Meyers as I might have expected, so let's talk about his new home.

Meyers, a UDFA who signed with the Patriots in 2019, caught 67 passes for 804 yards and six touchdowns last season. He missed three games—his 57.4 yards per game were the most of his career.

The Patriots didn't have a great receiving corps last season, which was how Meyers ended up just kind of running off from the rest of them in targets. The ball came his way 96 times; no other Patriots receiver had more than 53 targets.

The situation in Vegas is different. For one, unless there's a change in the roster between now and the start of the season, Meyers isn't the No. 1 receiver—that's Davante Adams. I think it's also fair to say a healthy Hunter Renfrow is better than any receiver he played with last season.

Just from a pure volume perspective, this move hurts Meyers' numbers, though he should still be productive as the team's No. 2 option.

Verdict: Faller

 

D.J. Chark - Carolina Panthers

Chark spent last season in Detroit, where he played 11 games for the Lions, catching 30 passes for 502 yards and three touchdowns. It wasn't a great season, but it was good to see Chark back on the field and posting some productive numbers.

Now, he heads to the Panthers, where he'll likely start alongside Adam Thielen and Terrace Marshall Jr. The quarterback situation in Carolina is probably a downgrade, as he goes from Jared Goff to rookie Bryce Young. Young's a talented player, but he's also a rookie, so it's kind of a mystery there.

The Frank Reich-led offense in Carolina should be comparable to the offense Chark played in last year in terms of volume—the Colts didn't have Reich all year last season as he was fired mid-year, but overall the team threw 604 passes, while the Lions threw 588.

But I'm ultimately higher on Chark next season for one reason: he has a path to being the Panthers' No. 1 receiver, something that wasn't possible last year in Detroit with Amon-Ra St. Brown. D.J. Moore is gone from Carolina, and Marshall had just 47 targets last year. Thielen's lost a step. A healthy Chark might see his most targets since 2020 when he was targeted 93 times in Jacksonville. Maybe the quality will be lower than the target quality he had in Detroit last year, but volume matters.

Verdict: Riser

 

Mecole Hardman - New York Jets

The Jets added Allen Lazard, pairing him with Aaron Rodgers, who Lazard has played with for his entire NFL career. But the team also added former Chiefs receiver Mecole Hardman in free agency.

Hardman, a second-round pick for Kansas City back in 2019, never really found his groove with the Chiefs. His best season was in 2021 when he caught 59 passes for 693 yards. He was known for his speed coming out of Georgia, but for all but one of his seasons with the Chiefs, the team had Tyreek Hill to serve as that deep threat, and then last season Hardman played just eight games because of a core injury.

But with the Jets, we might finally get to see that game-breaking speed from Hardman. Despite taking a step back in his overall numbers last year, Aaron Rodgers still ranked second in the NFL in deep ball attempts with 81 per PlayerProfiler.

Hardman won't have an upgrade at quarterback, since he was playing with Patrick Mahomes, but he has a chance to get on the field more than he was in KC, where the Chiefs had a pretty weird receiving rotation.

Verdict: Riser

 

Parris Campbell - New York Giants

For the last few seasons, the Giants have had one of the strangest receiving corps in the NFL, largely because injuries meant there was just a seemingly endless parade of random dudes playing the position. I mean, Richie James had 70 targets last year.

This year, the team still has a confusing receiving unit. After adding Campbell in free agency and drafting Jalin Hyatt in the third round, the team now has those two plus Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Wan'Dale Robinson. It's a crowded group.

Campbell has a good argument for being the best of those guys, but after seeing a career-high 91 targets last year, it's hard to really know what to expect this season with so many mouths to feed. It's definitely possible Campbell has a good season, but there's too much uncertainty for me to bet on that, though people I trust are high on Campbell:

He's a faller, but like...a soft faller who could definitely end up having a good year.

Verdict: Faller

 

Noah Brown - Houston Texans

The Texans added Robert Woods in free agency, but that one's been talked about more around the internet than the other receiver they brought in: Noah Brown, who comes over from the Dallas Cowboys.

And, well...this could work out for Brown because the Texans don't have a very imposing receiving unit, but it's going to be an uphill battle.

Last year, Brown saw a career-high 74 targets, catching 43 passes for 555 yards and three touchdowns. It was a pretty good year for him considering he'd never had more than 25 targets in a season.

But he'll likely open the season as the No. 4 receiver for the Texans, with two talented rookies—Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson—behind him on the depth chart with a chance to pass him.

Sure, one or more of the projected starters—Robert Woods, Nico Collins, John Metchie III—could struggle and lose snaps to Brown, but this just doesn't feel like a great situation: rookie quarterback, a new offensive coordinator who comes over from a run-heavy team, a solid tight end in Dalton Schultz who'll command targets. Just tough to see a good path to fantasy relevance for Brown.

Verdict: Faller



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