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We swept the strikeout props again! That's two days in a row and can we do it a third straight day? I'm filling in for one of my teammates today but you know I bet K props every single day during the baseball season so I was locked and loaded and ready to roll.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, April 10, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kenta Maeda OVER 5.5K (+105 DK) vs. CHW
It's a small sample size to go off, but perhaps Maeda is back to his old self after missing an entire season due to injury. His performance against the Marlins was truly impressive as he whiffed half the hitters he faced and produced a 21% SwStr% in the process. Now it was the Marlins, the team that strikes out the most against righties in MLB so far, but Maeda's breaking pitches looked sharp and when he has all his stuff working, he is a very tough pitcher to hit.
Kenta Maeda, K'ing the Side.
9Ks thru 5. pic.twitter.com/157wVb2t2k
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 4, 2023
He doesn't have to throw hard to get results as his fastball plays faster when paired with all of his offspeed offerings. I love his chances of getting 6+ strikeouts today against a primarily right-handed lineup from Chicago.
Framber Valdez OVER 5.5K (-150 DK) vs. PIT
Framber gets a soft number here at 5.5, I was expecting to see it at 6.5 today against the Pirates. We have to eat some juice on this number, but I think it's one of the safer K props on the board considering how consistent Valdez has been over the past year and a half.
Valdez is coming off a 9k performance against the Tigers last time out and he finished 7 innings in that outing despite allowing 8 hits and a walk. He consistenly pitches deep into games and that gives him a great chance of hitting his K prop more often than not. The Pirates have been an improved offense this year, but are much better against righties than lefties. Nick Lodolo got them for 9k in only five innings early this year, and while Valdez isn't the same caliber of strikeout pitcher as Lodolo, it goes to show that the Pirates are much more vulnerable to LHP.
Julio Urias OVER 5.5 (-155 DK) vs. SFG
I was on the wrong side of Urias in both of his first starts as he had six in each of them and I had bet the under on 5.5. I won't make that mistake again today as Urias gets a plus matchup here against the Giants, who have whiffed 40% of the time against lefties this season!
A lot of those strikeouts came yesterday as Kansas City lefty Kris Bubic racked up 9k over six scoreless innings against them. Urias is a significantly better pitcher than Bubic and has a 27% K% through his first two starts. I like his chances of keeping his streak of 6 or more strikeouts going tonight here against the Giants, too.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Hunter Renfroe over 1.5 TB (+110 DK) vs. WAS
What a series it was for Renfroed against the Blue Jays. He finished with five hits, four of which were for extra bases (2 doubles, 2 HR), and drove in 7 runs against the Jays. Now he and the Angels get everyone's favorite lefty to pick on - Patrick Corbin. Renfroe looks so good in this matchup. He has crushed lefties in his career and he profiles particularly well against the sinker/slider combo that Corbin deploys as his main pitches. I am amazed we are getting him at plus odds here. You know what to do! I'd be looking hard at Mike Trout, too, and probably stacking up some Angels in DFS. If you want to get really risky, then take Renfroe's HR prop at +370.
Brandon Lowe over 1.5 Hits + Runs +RBI (-105) vs. BOS
Sticking with the "red hot" theme, let's roll with Mr. Lowe who has gone 3-6 in his last two games with 2 HR and 8 RBI. He's hitting at the top of the lineup for the hottest team in baseball as the Rays have been averaging a cool EIGHT runs per game to start the season.
Lowe has some solid numbers against Nick Pivetta in his career and while Pivetta does have some strikeout ability, he also gets barrelled up quite often, too. Lefties have always given him trouble and so Lowe is on the right side of his splits and Pivetta's. This number is too low on Lowe, considering we don't even need extra-base hits for it to hit. I have been using this type of bet more often this year for guys who hit up in the lineup and stand a good chance of getting a hit and scoring or driving in a run.
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