RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Thursday, 26th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/26/23
We are officially at the time of the year when each game is of its utmost importance as teams gauge whether they are a playoff contender, a seller or on the bubble. Tonight we have a modest 9-game slate and two teams playing on a back-to-back: Florida and Buffalo. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Colorado with 4.5, Calgary with 4.2 and Minnesota with 3.8 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this nine-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Marc-Andre Fleury- DK $8.3K || FD $7.8K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
Another slate and another group of hard-to-trust netminders, whether it is form, team form or the matchup in general. Fleury is one of the better options provided though, going against a Flyers offense that is shooting at will – 31.72 Shots For Per 60 –, but yet they only sport a 27.82 Scoring Chances For Per 60 and a Goals For Per 60 of 2.39 – tenth-worst in the league – all stats over the last 10 games. By all means Fleury is not playing his best either, winning just 1 game out of his last 5 games. However, he has been playing on his head at times with Minnesota’s defense conceding 29.97 Shots Against Per 60 over the last 10 games. This offers Fleury the perfect spot to at the minimum hit the save bonus on DraftKings – 35 or more –. Can Minnesota finally rebound, or will Philadelphia break their poor form?
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vanecek (DK $7.9K || FD $8K), Mrazek (DK $6.9K || FD $7.2K)
Centers
Nathan MacKinnon-DK $9.5K || FD $10.4K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Queue the chalk. MacKinnon will undoubtedly see north of 20 percent ownership tonight thanks to his terrific matchup against the Anaheim Ducks. Anaheim currently ranks dead last in every meaningful statistic. They sport a 40.36 Shots Against Per 60, a 37 Scoring Chances Against Per 60 and a 3.96 Goals Against Per 60, all over the last 10 games. The Goals Against metric is the most concerning, as the fifth-worst defense over the last 10 games is the Panthers with a 3.15 Goals Against Per 60. Over MacKinnon’s last five games, he has 2 goals, 7 assists and 26 shots, good enough for the shots bonus on DraftKings per game – 5 or more shots –. There is not a better spot on the slate tonight for a player to blow up.
Mikael Backlund- DK $4.8K || FD $5.4K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Backlund is quietly carrying the Flames with his consistent production. The third-line center has 5 assists, 18 shots and 2 blocked shots over his last five games. He is also on pace to set season-highs in points – 53 points in 16-17 –. Chicago currently sports the fourth-worst defense in Shots Against Per 60 – 33.93 –, the sixth-worst defense in Scoring Chances – 31.89 – and the tenth-worst in Goals Scored Against Per 60 – 2.89 –. To make things even better, Backlund and company will be seeing the majority of the first-line and third-line for the Blackhawks. Both lines are the worst defensive lines on the team. While many will be focused on the first line for Calgary, this is a perfect spot to pay down, get less ownership and just as high of a ceiling.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Dubois (DK $6.5K || FD $7.9K), Schenn (DK $4.4K || FD $5.2K)
Wings
Artturi Lehkonen- DK $5.9K || FD $6.9K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Lehkonen returns for another stint in the Puck Drop. The winger continues to play next to teammate Nathan MacKinnon and despite his production, he has still not cracked the $6K mark on DraftKings. In Lehkonen’s last five appearances, he has 3 goals, 1 assist and 12 shots. The Ducks’ defense has already been mentioned above and this is a great opportunity to get a high-ceiling potential player at a manageable salary tonight.
Jonatan Berggren- DK $3.6K || FD $5.3K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Berggren is nothing but an expensive ‘punt’ play tonight. The winger has bounced all around the lineup for the Red Wings and based on the expected lineup, Berggren should be slated on the first-line tonight. If not resort to Michael Rasmussen who is similar in salary. In Berggren’s last five games, he has 1 assist and 6 shots. Montreal is a terrible defense with a good goalie and they just lost 4-2 to the Bruins two days ago. Can Berggren and the Red Wings give the same fate?
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kaprizov (DK $7.6K || FD $9.7K), Perfetti (DK $3.7K || FD $5K)
Defense
Devon Toews- DK $5K || FD $5.8K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
At this point, Toews is in a similar boat to what Jonatan Berggren is above. Toews has been filling in for injured teammate Cale Makar, however, Toews has done little to nothing with the added ice time and opportunities. In his last five games, he has 5 assists, 10 shots and 7 blocked shots. His peripherals are decent, but the production is not where it needs to be. The Ducks’ defense is putrid and barring Makar’s return, Toews should get another crack at producing in a prime matchup.
Matt Dumba- DK $3.1K || FD $4.1K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
I would be astonished if Dumba does not garner massive amounts of ownership tonight. The defenseman has been the subject of trade rumors for a few seasons now and it looks like Minnesota is finally up to the idea. Dumba has been a healthy scratch a few times this season due to poor play and he makes his return tonight. Not only will he play second-pair minutes, but he will also be one of the rearguards on the second power-play. For almost minimum salary, this is a ‘no-brainer’ play, considering the production that Dumba can put together.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Krug (DK $4.9K || FD $5.9K), Severson (DK $3.4K || FD $4K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- COL1
- CGY1
- MIN1
- WPG1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- STL: Kyrou-Schenn-Tarasenko
Chalk Stack
- COL: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Sneaky Stack
- CGY: Mangiapane-Backlund-Toffoli
