Coaching Matters: Offensive Outliers From Week 17

Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 17 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.

This is the seventeenth week and final entry of this 2022-2023 series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 17, we saw stat lines such as the Baltimore Ravens' wide receiver room seeing just five targets, the Detroit Lions running back room combining for 222 rushing yards, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver room totaling 370 receiving yards.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Washington Commanders Wide Receivers

Scott Turner

The Washington Commanders were eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the Cleveland Browns this past week. In this game, the team's wide receiver room put up subpar numbers, combining for seven receptions on 15 targets for 84 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 188 receptions (11.75 per game) on 300 targets (18.75 per game) for 2495 receiving yards (155.94 per game) and 18 receiving touchdowns (1.13 per game).

There's no getting around the fact that Sunday's performance was disappointing for the Washington wide receiver room. Having said this, the season totals as a whole are a little higher than what we would normally expect from a Scott Turner-coached wide receiver room. Looking ahead to the final week of the regular season, Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson should be in the FLEX conversation.

Fantasy players this impacts: Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Dyami Brown, Cam Sims, Dax Milne

Baltimore Ravens Wide Receivers

Greg Roman

The Baltimore Ravens lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football after Kenny Pickett led a game-winning drive for the Steelers in the final minutes of the game. In this game, one of the most disappointing groups for the Ravens was the wide receiver room, as they combined for just two receptions on five targets for 18 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 119 receptions (7.44 per game) on 181 targets (11.31 per game) for 1402 receiving yards (87.63 per game) and seven receiving touchdowns (0.44 per game) on the season.

It has been an incredibly disappointing year for the Baltimore Ravens wide receiver room – even by Greg Roman standards. None of their players are startable for fantasy purposes in Week 18, and unless they make a coaching change on the offensive side of the ball next year it's unlikely that they have more than one fantasy-relevant wide receiver in 2023 as well.

Fantasy players this impacts: Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, James Proche II, Demarcus Robinson, DeSean Jackson, and Tylan Wallace

Decline Ahead?

As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Detroit Lions Running Backs

Dan Campbell & Ben Johnson

The Detroit Lions destroyed the Chicago Bears this past Sunday to keep their playoff hopes alive, winning the game 41-10. In this game, the team's running back room dominated as they combined for 33 carries, 222 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, five receptions, five targets, 52 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. On the season this group has now totaled 403 carries (25.19 per game), 1781 rushing yards (111.31 per game), 21 rushing touchdowns (1.31 per game), 73 receptions (4.56 per game), 107 targets (6.69 per game), 607 receiving yards (37.94 per game), and four receiving touchdowns (0.25 per game).

The Lions running back room has been on a tear this year and has performed better than Dan Campbell's typical running back room. Looking ahead to the final week of the regular season, both Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift are looking like startable fantasy options against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.

Fantasy players this impacts: Jamaal Williams, D'Andre Swift, Justin Jackson, Craig Reynolds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receivers

Byron Leftwich

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers locked up their spot in the NFL playoffs with the victory over the Carolina Panthers this past Sunday. In this game, the team's wide receiver room went off to the tune of 23 receptions on 26 targets for 370 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has now totaled 284 receptions (17.75 per game) on 432 targets (27 per game) for 3130 receiving yards (195.63 per game) and 16 receiving touchdowns (one per game) on the season.

Going into the season we knew that offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich had a history of feeding his wide receiver room, but even by his standards the current averages by the Buccaneers' wide receiver room are insane. It's likely that next week this group goes back down to Earth and puts up a more mediocre performance – especially since there's a good chance that the Buccaneers take it easy with some of their starters now that they are locked into the four-seed in the NFC.

Fantasy players this impacts: Mike Evans, Russell Gage, Chris Godwin, Breshad Perriman, Scott Miller, Jaelon Darden, Deven Thompkins, and Julio Jones

Jacksonville Jaguars Running Backs

Doug Pederson & Press Taylor

The Jacksonville Jaguars got one step closer to making the NFL playoffs with their victory over the Houston Texans this past week. One position group in particular that balled out in this game was the Jaguars' running back room. Against the Texans, the Jaguars running back room combined for 24 carries, 158 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, nine receptions, nine targets, 55 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 349 carries (21.81 per game), 1679 rushing yards (104.94 per game), 11 rushing touchdowns (0.69 per game), 62 receptions (3.88 per game), 79 targets (4.94 per game), 471 receiving yards (29.44 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.13 per game).

Sunday's performance was definitely one of the better ones of the year for the Jaguars' running back room, but the season averages as a whole seem to be in line with what we'd expect from a Doug Pederson running back room. You should feel good about firing up Travis Etienne in your fantasy lineup this week against the Tennessee Titans.

Fantasy players this impacts: Travis Etienne, JaMycal Hasty, and Snoop Conner

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