RADIO
Wow, what a wild week for DST scoring. The top six defenses heading into Monday Night Football were the Colts, Giants, Browns, Lions, Jaguars, and Raiders. Every defense except for the Colts has been in the bottom half or third of fantasy DSTs during the season, and the Colts and Jaguars were facing the Vikings and Cowboys, respectively, which have been two of the toughest offenses to put up fantasy points against. What a way to start the fantasy football playoffs.
We hit just three of the top 10 this week with just Arizona, Denver, and Philadelphia sliding in. Let's hope this week is a little kinder, but it's been a chaotic streaming game all season, so I'm just happy to be above .500.
We're now far enough into the season that we need to keep in mind season-long rankings but also recent performance. In the writeups below you'll hear me mention season-long stats as well as fantasy performances over the last six weeks to try and create a balance analytical approach. I also published a rest-of-season article where I looked at defenses that could pair well with one another to give you the best possible performance week in and week out, so check that out if you're gearing up for playoffs.
As a reminder, every week I do a YouTube DST video called Pick 3(DST) where I give you three defenses I like during the week and one that I'm fading. We have some fun with it, but I think it gives a lot of the same reasoning I present here, so check it out for some video fun. And my BOD Leaderboard is available on Public Tableau, where you can see my updated BOD rankings, plus a leaderboard for the individual defensive stats I use for the BOD formula, and some of the offensive stats that I think can help us determine which DST to play or not. Also, make sure to always check back with this article over the weekend because I will my updated rankings as the week goes on when we get injury news or troubling weather information, etc.
What is the BOD Ranking Formula?
Last year I introduced my Best Overall Defense (BOD) rankings formula, and I'll be using it again this year. I'll give a quick overview of the formula below, followed by my general strategy for streaming defenses, and then my Week 16 fantasy football defense (DST) rankings. Good luck in Week 16 everyone!
The BOD (Best Overall Defense) formula takes into account my favorite stats for picking the right defenses (both positive and negative) and weighs them in a formula. You can view the RANKINGS AND COMPLETE LEADERBOARD of all the stats I use here. I tweaked the formula as the season went on last year, and I feel like it gives us a pretty good indicator of who has the best defenses for fantasy purposes. If you don't want to click that link, the formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
It's important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. In 2021, NFL offenses gained 343.6 yards per game and scored 23.0 points per game. While that's down from the 24.8 scored in 2020 (most likely because of the deep safety defenses), it's still the third-most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Season Record
77-74 correctly predicting top-10 defenses
I want to track how correctly I pick the top 10 this year, so I'll keep track using FantasyPros total points. If anybody has other suggestions, let me know.
Week 16 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. This is the best way to see just how much I like one team over another. Not all one or two-spot differences are the same.
A zero means "do not start," and then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16
The 49ers are the 1st-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 13 points per game, and they've been one of the best defenses in my BOD rankings all year long. They're 1st in opponent's scoring rate, 5th in turnover rate, 8th in sacks, and are super stingy when it comes to giving up yardage, The Commanders rank 23rd in points allowed to opposing fantasy defenses, so I love this spot for San Francisco.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16
The Bills are tied as the 16th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 6.5 points per game. However, it's important to note that 7.5 points per game would make them a top-ten defensive unit over that span, so they've still been competitive in a stretch that included the three games in 12 days and a rescheduled game due to a snowstorm, so it's certainly been a trying month for the Bills in that respect. The Bears have been a better offense of late but just gave up six sacks and a fumble last week and rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, so I think you can feel comfortable paying the Bills.
The Broncos are the 9th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 7.8 points per game, but that's actually an improvement from the middle of the season when they were in the 20s. They're 7th in the NFL in opponent's scoring rate and 4th in yards allowed per play, so this is a strong real-life defense that gets an incredibly easy matchup against a Rams offense that is dead last in the NFL, allowing 14.6 points per game to opposing fantasy defenses. The addition of Baker Mayfield hasn't really changed the way I look at the Rams, so I think you can play Denver with confidence.
Shockingly, the Browns are the 2nd-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 12.8 points per game. Now they will face a Saints offense that is 26th in the NFL, allowing 11.1 points per game to opposing fantasy defenses, and somehow had David Johnson running more routes last week than Alvin Kamara. I'm not sure what the Saints are doing, but it's not good, and I don't think Andy Dalton can expose the secondary issues in Cleveland, so I feel comfortable with this defense since the Browns have forced seven turnovers and have six sacks over their last three games.
The Bucs are another defense that we don't have a lot of confidence in of late, but they have talent on that side of the ball. On the season, they're 6th in sacks, 6th in opponent's scoring rate, and 9th in tackles for a loss. Now they'll face a Cardinals offense that is 23rd in the NFL, allowing 10 points per game to opposing fantasy defenses, and may have to start Trace McSorley at quarterback. Since the Bucs are playing with their playoff lives on the line, I expect them to show up this weekend.
The Titans have not been good of late. In fact, they are the 29th-ranked defense, averaging just 2.5 points per game over the last month. So just think of this as a gut call. Tennessee needs this win after losing to the Chargers last week, and Houston is not a good team. I know they played Kansas City close last week, and Dallas the week before that, but they're also 31st with 14.1 points allowed to opposing fantasy defenses, so I trust Mike Vrabel to have the Titans ready here.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16
The Dolphins are the 3rd-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 9.3 points per game, which is a far cry from their earlier performance. They gave Buffalo a fight on Saturday night and will have a much easier time against the Packers, who rank 20th in points allowed to fantasy defenses with 9.2 per game. If the Dolphins are putting up nine fantasy points this weekend, they're likely sneaking into the top ten.
The Ravens are the 13th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 7.3 points per game. They are a solid play and have a pretty safe floor, but I'm nervous about their ceiling here. Yes, Desmond Ridder wasn't great last week, but the Saints only finished as the 15th-ranked defense because Atlanta runs so much. It doesn't matter the gamescript, they are going to run. That should limit the number of sacks and turnovers the Ravens can get. Plus, Lamar Jackson is still not back at practice, so the Falcons' offense may get a few short fields to put more points on the board then they deserve. At the end of the day, you can feel comfortable playing the Ravens, but it wouldn't surprise me if they ended up with 5-7 points.
The Chiefs are tied for the 10th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 7.5 points per game, and they'll face a trendy Seahawks offense that is actually 17th in the NFL, allowing 8.2 points per game to opposing fantasy defenses. This Chiefs defense is 4th in the NFL in sacks, 8th in pressure rate, and 10th in tackles for a loss, so they can be a fantasy-friendly unit. With Tyler Lockett out with a broken finger, the Chiefs could key in on DK Metcalf and have a solid fantasy day.
The Chargers are tied for the 10th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 7.5 points per game, and now they get to face a Colts offense that is 30th in the NFL, allowing 12.5 points per game to opposing fantasy defenses. Oh, Jonathan Taylor will likely be out and the Chargers should get Derwin James back this week. Those are all recipes for success in Los Angeles; however, Nick Foles under center takes the wind out of the sails a bit because he will take fewer sacks than Matt Ryan.
The Texans are surprisingly the 14th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 6.8 points per game, but over that stretch, they have faced the Dolphins, Browns, Cowboys, and Chiefs, so it's actually pretty impressive to be ranked 14th after that stretch. They've forced eight turnovers and recorded nine sacks over that four-game stretch; meanwhile, the Titans offense is 28th in the NFL, allowing 11.7 points per game to opposing fantasy defenses and may be without Ryan Tannehill, who injured his ankle again on Sunday. If we get Malik Willis, this Texans defense could be a truly sneaky start.
Jacksonville is tied with Houston as the 14th-ranked defense over the last month and gets to face Zach Wilson, which we love. However, I simply can't move them above the teams ahead of them because the Jacksonville defense has been so up-and-down over the season. The Jets figure to go very run heavy here, so I'm not sure how much upside the Jacksonville defense has unless they can get a pick-six, which is hard to bank on.
The Lions are tied for 9th in fantasy points per game over the last month with 7.5 a game. They now face a Panthers offense that is 27th in the NFL, allowing 11.2 points per game to opposing fantasy defenses. Sam Darnold is certainly a weak link, and this Lions' pass rush could get after him since they have 13 sacks in the last four games. The Lions also have secured a turnover in every game since Week 2, so I like them to be a useful fantasy defense here.
The Cowboys and Eagles are tied for the 6th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 8.5 points per game, and they've been two of my favorite defenses all year. I think you can feel comfortable getting a floor game out of them in deeper leagues, and I lean toward Dallas with Jalen Hurts out. However, I would caution against moving Dallas too high up. Gardner Minshew is a good quarterback, and this Eagles offense still has tons of talent, especially with Dallas Goedert coming back.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16
The Raiders are the 8th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 8 points per game, and will face a Steelers offense that is improving but is still 21st in the NFL, allowing 9.5 points per game to opposing fantasy defenses. I expect we get Kenny Pickett back this week, which makes the Steelers a bit less enticing to target but still a play in deeper leagues.
Yes, the Jets defense is good but Jacksonville is 5th in the NFL, allowing just 6.3 points per game to opposing fantasy defenses. I'd look somewhere else this week.
The Colts are the 5th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging 9 points per game, so it's weird to not have them higher, but this Chargers offense is now fully healthy, and I just don't feel comfortable attacking them with a playoff spot on the line for them.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16
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