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Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 10 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.
This is the tenth week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 10, we saw stat lines such as the Washington Commanders' running back room getting 40 carries, the New Orleans Saints running back room totaling 27 rushing yards, and the Minnesota Vikings' wide receiver room seeing 34 targets.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
New Orleans Saints Running Backs
Pete Carmichael Jr.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Saints | 21.59 | 77.24 | 0.29 | 4.41 | 6.12 | 36.76 | 0.29 |
| Pete Carmichael Jr. Prior (209 games) | 22.71 | 101.84 | 0.81 | 7.33 | 9.28 | 57.71 | 0.31 |
| Saints RBs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
The New Orleans Saints running back room struggled in their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, combining for nine carries, 27 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, three receptions, four targets, 19 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has totaled 188 carries (18.8 per game), 769 rushing yards (76.9 per game), three rushing touchdowns (0.3 per game), 54 receptions (5.4 per game), 69 targets (6.9 per game), 411 receiving yards (41.1 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.2 per game).
These numbers are well below offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael's career averages, but eerily similar to the team's 2021 running back room averages. Because of this, it's likely that this group doesn't improve much from the current season averages down the stretch and that Alvin Kamara continues to be more of a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 than the RB1 he's been in the past.
Fantasy players this impacts: Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Jordan Howard
Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs
Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Eagles | 23 | 110.29 | 0.88 | 4.35 | 6.24 | 30.18 | 0.06 |
| Nick Sirianni Prior (65 games) | 23.8 | 110.32 | 0.85 | 5.46 | 7.03 | 39.22 | 0.14 |
| Shane Steichen Prior (41 games) | 23.63 | 103.88 | 0.68 | 6.66 | 8.54 | 52.00 | 0.15 |
| Eagles RBs vs. Washington Commanders | 14 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
The Philadelphia Eagles running back room struggled against the Washington Commanders on Monday night, combining for 14 carries, 66 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, one reception, three targets, five receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. This group has now totaled 199 carries (22.11 per game), 934 rushing yards (103.78 per game), 10 rushing touchdowns (1.11 per game), 21 receptions (2.33 per game), 29 targets (3.22 per game), 94 receiving yards (10.44 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game).
Comparing these current averages with the career averages from head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, there seems to be a good chance that we see this group get more usage in the passing game down the stretch. Because of this, it may be a good time to trade for Miles Sanders and pick up Kenneth Gainwell off the waiver wire since they are the primary pass-catching backs.
Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, Trey Sermon
Decline Ahead?
As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Washington Commanders Running Backs
Scott Turner
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Washington | 23.29 | 95.24 | 0.71 | 6.06 | 7.47 | 47.88 | 0.29 |
| Scott Turner Prior (37 games) | 21.73 | 88.65 | 0.84 | 7.19 | 9.11 | 55.73 | 0.19 |
| Commanders RBs vs. Philadelphia Eagles | 40 | 130 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
On Monday night, the Washington Commanders pulled off a huge upset over the previously undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, winning the game 32-21. In this victory, the Commanders dominated the time of possession (40 minutes 24 seconds) and had a great effort from the running back room as they combined for 40 carries, 130 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, three receptions, three targets, 14 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 224 carries (22.4 per game), 826 rushing yards (82.6 per game), five rushing touchdowns (0.5 per game), 65 receptions (6.5 per game), 85 targets (8.5 per game), 433 receiving yards (43.3 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.2 per game) on the season.
Monday's effort was definitely on the higher end of outcomes for the Commanders' running back room, but the season averages seem pretty sustainable overall based on offensive coordinator Scott Turner's previous tendencies. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson should continue to be in the FLEX conversation for the rest of the year.
Fantasy players this impacts: Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Jonathan Williams
Minnesota Vikings Wide Receivers
Kevin O'Connell & Wes Phillips
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Vikings | 14.12 | 21.47 | 187.12 | 1.71 |
| Kevin O'Connell Prior (49 games) | 14.65 | 22.12 | 179.33 | 1.18 |
| Vikings WRs vs. Buffalo Bills | 19 | 34 | 277 | 1 |
In what many have deemed as 'Game of the Year', the Minnesota Vikings pulled out the victory over the Buffalo Bills in overtime, winning the game 33-30. In this game, the Minnesota Vikings wide receiver room balled out – putting up 19 receptions on 34 targets for 277 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. On the season this group has now totaled 141 receptions (15.67 per game) on 214 targets (23.78 per game) for 1770 receiving yards (196.67 per game) and nine receiving touchdowns (one per game).
While the Vikings probably won't have many more games where their wide receiver room sees 34 targets, their current season averages do seem pretty sustainable based on their talent and head coach Kevin O'Connell's previous wide receiver usage. Continue to hold your Vikings wide receivers if you have them.
Fantasy players this impacts: Justin Jefferson, K.J. Osborn, Adam Thielen, Jalen Reagor
Carolina Panthers Running Backs
Ben McAdoo
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2021 Panthers | 19.82 | 74.76 | 0.35 | 6.29 | 8.24 | 50.82 | 0.18 |
| Ben McAdoo Prior (60 games) | 23.4 | 88.92 | 0.43 | 5.02 | 7.02 | 37.38 | 0.12 |
| Panthers RBs vs. Atlanta Falcons | 42 | 176 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The Carolina Panthers running back room saw a ton of work on Thursday Night Football this past week, combining for 42 carries, 176 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, zero receptions, one target, zero receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. This group has now totaled 220 carries (22 per game), 1014 rushing yards (101.4 per game), eight rushing touchdowns (0.8 per game), 46 receptions (4.6 per game), 62 targets (6.2 per game), 363 receiving yards (36.3 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.1 per game). These numbers are on the higher side of what we'd expect from a Ben McAdoo running back room and suggest that it is a good time to sell high on D'Onta Foreman.
Fantasy players this impacts: D'Onta Foreman, Chubba Hubbard, Raheem Blackshear
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