RADIO
"The Middle" by Jimmy Eat World is a perfect song to encapsulate how I've been with picks through the first eight weeks of the 2022 NFL season. Green Bay used garbage time to pull out a double-digit cover, while our 6.5-point, three-team teaser cashed in a lovely fashion. I was very wrong about the Texans but I predicted Derrick Henry would run all over their defense. It just wasn't enough to push this game over, as both teams are terrible. We press on!
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 11-11, -0.68 units
- Spread: 5-3, +1.5 units
- Total/Team Total: 4-7, -3.66 units
- Moneyline: 1-1, +0.18 units
- Props: 0-0
- Parlays/Teasers: 1-0, +1.3 units
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Week 9 NFL Betting Picks - Total
Minnesota Vikings at Washinton Commanders
Sunday 11/6, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 43.5
The Minnesota Vikings have jumped out of the gate to a 6-1 record, including five straight wins. All five of those wins have been within eight points, though they've had no issue scoring, averaging 28.6 points per game. Kirk Cousins hasn't been spectacularly average, but with one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, he gets a boost. Dalvin Cook hasn't lit the world on fire either but has done enough to elevate the unit. Defensively, there's work to be done allowing 5.9 yards per play but they do allow just 20 ppg.
Things are looking up in DC after news dropped this week of a possible sale of the team. They are 4-4 and currently on a three-game win streak and now Taylor Heinicke is under center. The running back group is kind of a revolving door right now, but they've totaled just under 400 yards over their streak and the offense has just three turnovers as well. Though expect some regression with the 30th-ranked offense by DVOA. Defensively, they can hang their hat on a #2 ranked run defense by dVOA, but through the air, they struggle horrendously.
This total opened at 44.5 and has dropped to 43.5 and I'm on the same side as the money here with the under. Minnesota has been rolling so far, but Cousins and the offense struggle on the road (avg 1.0 ypp less on the road in '22). Then when you consider Washington's offensive situation along with the fact that their games have finished with a total of 44 or more just once since Week 2. I expect the Vikings to win this one, but it won't be pretty.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
Week 9 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday 11/6, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 47.5
Things are not bright in Vegas. Derek Carr is fresh off a horrendous outing and it's clear even Davante Adams can't will this offense to progress. Though we have to remember they scored at least 29 points in their last three games prior. However, for me, the most glaring thing to point out is Carr's not-great road splits throughout his career. One shining spot is Josh Jacobs who has stifled offseason haters to average 6.3 yards per touch. Defensively, yikes. they allow 25 ppg, 5.8 ypp, and rank 29th in overall DVOA.
After a 2-1 start, Jacksonville has seemingly given up on contention in 2022 as they're now 2-6. Trevor Lawrence is entering bust discussion amongst the public, but he's been more inconsistent than a bust. Christina Kirk has been the only true mainstay pass catcher, but Zay Jones and Evan Engram have been present. On the ground, Travis Etienne is now the feature back and has been thriving, rushing for 270 yards and two scores in his L2. Defensively, the Jags are middling but looking to pop. This week is their chance to take advantage of Carr and generate some takeaways.
We're going to pick on the Raiders this week following their scoreless Week 8 outing. While I doubt they get shut out again, this Jaguars' defense is better than expected. While I don't necessarily trust the Jacksonville offense either, I believe in Etienne carrying this unit at home to get them a win heading into a tough Kansas City matchup before their bye week in Week 11.
Pick: Jacksonville ML (+106, Fanduel) Bet 1 Unit
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Week 9 NFL Betting Picks - Total
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Sunday 11/6 | 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 42.5
The Panthers are rolling with PJ Walker after his strong Week 8 performance throwing for 317 yards and a touchdown in a touch-luck loss to Atlanta. While I have no doubt he's better than Baker Mayfield, can he be trusted moving forward? His receiving corps is diminished but they stepped up last week. D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard aren't exactly a game-changing backfield, though they've been solid in their limited time as full-time players. Their defense ranks 7th in run DVOA, but the 27th-ranked pass defense has been holding them back.
Life in Cincinnati hasn't been pretty. Jamar Chase (hip) is out and it's obvious to have affected Joe Burrow in Week 8. He's not hurting for weapons, as Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon are still around, but even Mixon has just 400 rushing yards and two scores. They have averaged 6.6 ypp over the L3 and have been slightly better at home this year, but something is clearly off with this unit. On the defensive side, they're a top 10 unit, allowing just 5.4 ypp and have held opponents to 20 points or less in five of eight games this year.
Under, under, under. Carolina is fresh off their highest scoring output of the season but there just isn't a lot of talent on this offense, and while they can stop the run, the pass defense is their kryptonite. Cincy is banged up and not performing well on offense, so they're going to rely on their stout defense until things can get back on track. In terms of trends, since 2020 Cincy unders are 3-10 in games against the NFC, with Carolina unders against AFC teams are just 4-6. Just something I thought worth noting.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit
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