RADIO
There are not many times I will be thanking the Jets, at least I wouldn't have thought so coming into the season. If they can get some consistency on offense, they might be a half-respectable team this year. Then our under missed by a ton and our over wasn't even close, but we're back to about even on units for the year. I'm really working to pull out of the back and forth in the early season and get on a nice run, but man last week was one of the more depressing NFL weeks I've seen for us sports bettors.
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 7-7, -0.38 units
- Spread: 3-0, +3 unit
- Total/Team Total: 3-6, -3.56 units
- Moneyline: 1-1, +0.18 units
- Props: 0-0
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Week 6 NFL Betting Picks - Spread
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Sunday 10/16, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 45.5
A 40-17 win over the Dolphins in Week 5 was not what many had expected for the Jets, but they certainly looked like a capable team. Breece Hall and Michael Carter were the catalysts, but all five touchdowns scored were on the ground. Zach Wilson slung it for 210 yards but there is still a lot to be desired with the passing game. Now that Wilson has been back two weeks, expect them to let him spread it out more, but overall this offense is still very suspect.
Defensively, the Jets continue to generate takeaways, 1.8 per game, and while registering two sacks per game. Although, they'll have a tough test with a strong Packers offensive line this week.
At the expense of a poor Packers offensive performance (defense sucked too), we saw a great game in London against the Giants last week. It's quite clear that Aaron Rodgers misses Davante Adams, as his yards per completion is at a career-low rate (10.1 yards) while his completion percentage is above average. A lot of dink and dunking. The run game has been great, averaging 5 yards per carry, thanks to the second-ranked offensive line, based on DVOA. They haven't popped off yet, but I'd bet it's coming.
The Packers' defense was expected to be one of the best in the league, but giving up 4.8 ypc leaves some room to work, although the pass coverage has been solid, having not allowed over 269 yards through the air, or 9.1 yards per completion. They also average 2.4 sacks per game, but this number needs to improve if they want to get their takeaways up as well.
Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 7-0 ATS as a favorite in the week following a loss. In those seven wins, they won by an average of 9.2 points. In just 22 games under Robert Saleh, the Jets are 2-4 ATS after a win. Both are very small sample sizes, so take from that what you may. I look at Green Bay as a better football team, with advantages on both lines, with an obvious upgrade at quarterback, the three most important positions on the field. Packers to cover.
Pick: Green Bay -7 (-115, FanDuel) Bet to win 1 Unit
Week 6 NFL Betting Picks - First-Half Spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday 10/16, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 44
Few could argue that the Bucs don't look as menacing as we expected to open the year. Leonard Fournette has been as much of a wide receiver than a running back, with 26 catches and two scores already. Aside from Mike Evans displaying his usual dominance, Tom Brady has needed Fournette, as Chris Godwin is clearly not 100% and Julio Jones is nowhere near returning. The offense plays at one of the fastest paces in football but averages just 5.3 yards per play. In essence, the talent isn't performing as well as it should right now.
This Steelers team is in pure shambles right now. A three-point effort in Week 5 is all the proof you need. Sure, Kenny Pickett is a better option than Mitch Trubisky, but when his receivers don't do him any favors, whether it be drops or failing in contested catches, there's not much the rookie can do. Najee Harris has been below average (3.2 ypc) behind a slightly improved, yet still bad, offensive line. Long story short, the defense is VERY banged up and not in any position to carry this poor of an offense.
Tampa Bay has its problems right now, sure. However, Brady and company are still able to make plays on a consistent basis, with the expectation that they should improve. Pittsburgh is in such a bad spot where they have so many problems, they don't even know which one to prioritize to turn the tide. I don't trust garbage time in games like these, especially in Pittsburgh, so I'm expecting the Bucs to open the game strong and have Pittsburgh questioning their vices even more going into the locker room.
Pick: Tampa Bay 1H -4 (-110, Draftkings) Bet to win 1 Unit
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Week 6 NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday 10/16 4:05 PM EST | O/U: 50.5
Life in Arizona seems pretty good unless you play for the football team. Kyler Murray has been disappointing, plain and simple. Registering just 8.8 yards per completion is the worst mark in the NFL. The offense is capable of moving the ball, averaging 22 first downs per game, but have put up just 18.3 ppg over the L3. James Conner (ribs) and Darrel Williams (knee) haven't practiced all week, so things fall on Eno Benjamin. Can Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz continue to take care of leading this offense before DeAndre Hopkins returns.
Just coming off of last week, I was heavily doubting Seattle and specifically Geno Smith. Over the last two weeks, they've scored 80 points and put up over 900 yards. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been dynamite for Smith and you can expect that to continue. In the run game, Rashaad Penny (leg) is done for the year, but Kenneth Walker is ready to pick up the slack. Facing this defense is a great spot for them to continue their gaudy numbers.
Things haven't been fine for the Cardinals as w whole, and while Seattle's defense is abysmal, their offense is ready to pick up the slack. While I'm going to grab Seattle with the points (I got it at +3), I do think the over is a solid look here as well.
Pick: Seattle +3 (-118, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
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