September 27, 2022

Mitch Blatt's top IDP waiver wire adds and defensive streamers for Week 4 of the 2022 fantasy football season. These LB, DL, and DB have matchups worth exploiting.

We’re three weeks into the season, and the Broncos are tied with Kansas City as the best team in the AFC West. The Jaguars are the best team in the South, the Browns, without Deshaun, are tied for the lead in the North, and the Dolphins defeated the Bills to take the undisputed lead in the East.

There are reasons to believe some of these early anomalies in the standings won’t hold. The Browns only beat the Panthers and Steelers. The Broncos have only beaten the Texans and 49ers in Jimmy Garoppolo’s first game back since spending much of the offseason practicing by himself on the sidelines.

They’ve scored just 43 points, less than half of what the Chiefs have scored. But they’ve allowed only 36, two points fewer than the Bills. Let me be the first to defend the Broncos and make the case that they are a true contender, even after that somnolent Sunday Night game.

Are the Broncos For Real? IDP League Impact

Part of the reason we are dismissing their latest victory as just another game in which Jimmy G made clownish desperation throws is because the Broncos made him do it. The play Garoppolo stepped out in the end zone is being called a “self-safety,” but it was really caused by the Broncos pressuring him. Mike Purcell and Randy Gregory were closing on him from the moment the ball was snapped, while 49ers offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey watched from his knees. It would have been a sack on the field of play or a pick-six, as it almost was, had he not stepped out.

All season long, Broncos have been getting to the passer. Broncos edge rushers Randy Gregory, Bradley Chubb, and Baron Browning, all have pass-rush win rates of 20% or higher in their first two games, and it looks like those numbers ought to increase after this one.

The Broncos defense was good last season, and it’s still good. It’s their offense that was supposed to be good, but isn’t. It’s their offense that is infuriating.

Would it be surprising to know they were actually in the top ten in EPA per play for their first two games? They moved the ball to the tune of 433 yards on the Seahawks. They just couldn’t do anything right when they moved it inside the 20-yard line. But they’re getting better at game management, too. They committed just five penalties against the 49ers, seven fewer than they did against the Seahawks.

Should Broncos Country take pride in improving from embarrassingly dysfunctional to just plain boring? You bet. Russ might be driving like a retiree in his oversized RV visiting Rocky Mountain National Park for the first time and slowing down to spot the elk, but he’s driving alright, and we’re ridin’!

You’d think for a defense that is playing so well, there’d be players to add to your fantasy football team for IDP. Sadly, maybe not. The Broncos are limiting their opponents perhaps too well, limiting them to just less than 54 plays per game, which is up there with Buffalo, so they haven’t accumulated the volume to produce valuable IDP assets.

OLB Bradley Chubb is looking like his rookie self, leading the team with three sacks, while OLB Randy Gregory and DE Dre’Mont Jones have two sacks each. They all could be valuable, especially in leagues with sack-heavy scoring, if they can keep it up, but they also all have fewer than 10 tackles. There are quite a few linebackers, most of whom you can plug in at DL on Sleeper, at this stage of the season who have a couple of sacks and significantly more tackles.

Last week, I recommended Carolina LB Frankie Luvu as the top waiver wire add. He delivered with five tackles and a forced fumble in the Panthers’ 22-14 win over the Saints. Who will it be this time?

Reminder: I am using RotoBaller Standard IDP scoring when I cite fantasy points, and I am using My Fantasy League approximations when I cite roster rates. Choices are listed in order of priority.

Jevon Holland, S, Mia

Rostered in ~60% of leagues

I don’t have to convince you Miami is for real. So is Jevon Holland, the Fins’ Canadian-born second-round pick in 2021. He made 10 tackles and 1.5 sacks and forced a fumble the Dolphins recovered to help defeat the Bills 21-19. It was his second week scoring 15 or more fantasy points.

Roger McCreary, CB, Ten

Rostered in ~1% of leagues

Forget about Trey Burks. Roger McCreary is the Titans rookie you want to have. His senior year at Auburn, he led the SEC in passes defended, and he finished his collegiate career sixth on the all-time list.  Now he's starting for Tennessee after being drafted in the second round. In Week 3 against Las Vegas, he played every single snap and recorded his first pass breakup, along with nine solo tackles. That follows the 11 solo tackles he made in the Titans' loss to Buffalo Week 2. He did miss two tackles Week 3, though--his first misses of the year--but his missed tackle rate is just 8%.

Jerry Hughes, DE, Hou

Rostered in ~35% of leagues

I put him on my waiver wire list after his 2.0-sack game Week 1, noting that he is, at age 34, the fifth-oldest defensive end in the league and very sack-dependent. He didn't do anything Week 2, but now the 13-year veteran had another 2.0 sacks against the Bears. He now has as many sack in 2022 as he did in the entire seasons of 2019 and 2020. His career high is 10.0 sacks in 2013 and 2014. Maybe he'll set a new career high at this late stage of his career!

His next game is against the Chargers, who will be without left tackle Rashawn Slater. Slater's replacement, who will be responsible for trying to block Hughes, Storm Norton, is grading at 30.2 in pass blocking this year.

Jalen Pitre, S, Hou

Rostered in ~30% of leagues

This second-round safety out of Baylor made 10 tackles in his NFL debut and kept up a high level of play. Now after three games, he has 23 combined tackles, and this past week against Chicago, he added two interceptions, two pass breakups, and a sack. Sure, he was playing Justin Fields. But even if you discount the plays on the football, his tackle numbers are solid, and he should be able to keep it up against opponents of greater and lesser stature.

Alex Anzalone, LB, Det

Rostered in ~27% of leagues

He averaged 5.6 combined tackles a game last season, his first with Detroit and his first as a three-down linebacker. Now he’s got 35 combined tackles in his first three games, including 9 solo tackles and a sack on Sunday’s 28-24 loss to the Vikings, while playing just a tick more snaps. I don’t think he’ll finish the year with 198 tackles, but he could get a good deal fewer than that and still score loads of points for your team.

Deatrich Wise Jr., DE, NE

Rostered in ~25% of leagues

After being drafted by the Pats in the fourth round of 2017, Wise is getting more playing time this year—80% of the snaps. He has made four sacks in three games and scored 10 or more fantasy points in two of his first three games this year.

Eddie Jackson, S, Chi

Rostered in ~27% of leagues

A big play threat who has awoken? Or an above-average safety who just had a game against Davis Mills and the Texans? Eddie Jackson made 10 picks his first three years in the league, including six in 2018, and returned two for touchdowns. In 2020 and 2021, he made no interceptions, but he got better at tackling. Now he began his 2022 campaign by picking off Trey Lance, and he just made another INT and forced a fumble against the Texans, all while accumulating 21 combined tackles.

Again, you might chalk it up (partially) to poor play by the QB on the other side, but he’s got Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz, Mac Jones (or his backup, if Jones is injured), Marcus Mariota, and Zach Wilson coming up, all quarterbacks who are not shy about throwing the ball up for grabs.

Jamin Davis, LB, Was

Rostered in ~33% of leagues

A first-round pick in 2021, he took some time to get settled in, but now he’s playing almost 80 percent of Washington’s snaps, and he has made 3.0 sacks in the past two games.

Darius Harris, LB, KC

Rostered in ~0% of leagues

Starting in the place of suspended Willie Gay, Harris made 13 tackles in only his third career start. Gay is missing three more games, which Harris, a 2019 undrafted free agent, is expected to start.

Any Safety Playing Justin Fields, Jameis Winston, or Jimmy G

Noticing a pattern here? If you do attribute all or most of the above safeties’ success to luck of the schedule, then make your own luck. The Bears have the Giants next week, whose strong safety, Julian Love, was on my waiver wire list last week. Rams strong safety Taylor Rapp, who is playing Garopollo next week, is only rostered in about half of all IDP leagues, while free safety Nick Scott is available in almost all.

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