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Today is the last day before the MLB All-Star Break. We have a full 15-game slate, however, there is no Sunday night baseball tonight. If you are looking to bet on MLB today you are going to have to place those bets this morning and afternoon (depending on your time zone)! This article will give a few of my favorite picks for this Sunday, July 17th, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: PHI -140
PHI: Aaron Nola| MIA: Trevor Rogers
This is one of the more lopsided games in my opinion yet the odds aren't as strong for the Phillies as I think they should be. There's no beating around the bush here; Trevor Rogers is really struggling this season. He has a 4.56 SIERA, a 20.9% strikeout rate, and an 11% walk rate, for a 9.9% K-BB%. Aaron Nola is a straight-up ace with a 2.91 SIERA, 27.7% strikeout rate, and a 3.3% walk rate. The Phillies are tied for 8th in wRC+, 5th in OBP, and 5th in ISO against LHP. Yeah this game is juiced up, but it isn't at -200 or anything and I like the Phillies a lot today. If you can find over 7 runs at plus odds, I like that bet at plus money too.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-140), PointsBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 7 runs (+100), BetRivers Sportsbook 0.5 units
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O/U: 9 | Moneyline: SEA -130
SEA: Chris Flexen| TEX: Glenn Otto
With Chris Flexen and Glenn Otto facing off, this is a game that I knew I had to take a stab at! With Flexen, he has a 4.96 SIERA, a 16.2% strikeout rate, and an 11.5% walk rate. For Otto, he has a 5.28 SIERA, a 17.5% strikeout rate, and a 13.4% walk rate. These starting pitchers are just not any good. I know this game is in a pitcher's park but there's sometimes only so much a ballpark can do.
With the bullpens, it is a tale of surface stats vs. underlying metrics. Seattle has the second-best bullpen SIERA at 3.13 while Texas has the 10th-worst at 3.75. Seattle's bullpen ERA is 3.48, 9th best, while Texas' bullpen ERA is 3.66, which is tied for 11th best. Both bullpens have had similar effectiveness but Seattle's underlying metrics indicate they could be the better bullpen.
Offensively, Seattle is the better team. They are generally Top 10 in key metrics while Texas is in the bottom half to bottom third of the league. Seattle's wRC+ against RHP is 107 while Texas' is 90.
I'll pay the juice for Seattle winning. There is a good chance this is a high-scoring game as well. I could see someone like Julio Rodriguez having a great day at the plate. I would place a small bet at over eight-nine runs depending on how much juice one is willing to pay. The OVER 9 Runs line is at plus odds at some books and minus odds at others, so I would attack that one at plus odds for a small bet.
Pick: Seattle Moneyline (-130), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 9 Runs (+100), DraftKings/Caesar's/PointsBet, 0.25 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SF -145
MIL: Aaron Ashby| SF: Logan Webb
With me paying for all this juice and taking favorites, I had to bring it back with one underdog pick as underdogs are my favorite. I am coming back to Milwaukee and San Francisco. I had the Brewers last night and the over and both of those bets busted. Brutal. Anyhow, despite the 2.82 ERA by Logan Webb and the 4.37 ERA by Aaron Ashby, the metrics tell another story.
Ashby has a 3.28 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. Webb has a 3.29 xFIP and 3.47 SIERA with a 21.3% strikeout rate and a 5.8 strikeout rate. Their xFIPs are 0.01 off, their SIERAs are 0.03 off, and their K-BB% are different by 0.7 with it favoring Ashby with his high strikeout numbers.
San Francisco has been putting in work this series and it's no surprise that they are favored. If I am going to pick an underdog, however, I am going to pick one in which the starting pitcher is not far off ability-wise from the other teams.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (+125), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 units;
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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