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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/4/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is Wednesday and this article will focus on the eight-game slate that starts at 6:45 p.m. Eastern time so that everyone that sees this will have time to tail the plays if they wish!
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, May 4, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 8-16 overall on the season, down 2.896 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. It has been frustratingly difficult to predict the outcome of games in part due to the ball but we have to keep grinding, it's a long season, and eventually we will get in the black!
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BOS -110
LAA: Reid Detmers | BOS: Garrett Whitlock
Reid Detmers is on the mound for the Angels. On the season he is 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 3.76 xFIP. He has allowed 1.56 HR/9 and a 15.5% K-BB%. On his career his K-BB% is 11% and his career xFIP is 5.19. He is young, only 22, so it remains to be seen whether this season is showing an improvement on his skill set and an adjustment to major league baseball. That said, he isn't an ace yet either.
Boston has Garrett Whitlock going on the mound tonight. He is 1-1 with a 0.54 ERA, 2.56 xFIP, and allowing just 0.54 HR/9. The most pitches he has thrown is 61 pitches in a game and the most innings pitched he had in a game is four innings.
Clearly this game is going to come down to the bullpens where Boston has an edge. Boston's bullpen ERA is 3.55 on the season while Los Angeles' is 3.80 on the season.
Because the Red Sox have the edge in starting pitching and the edge in relief pitching, they are a good pick to win the game at a price that isn't all juiced up like many others we see from favorites on the slate.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-110), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: CHW -137
CHW: Lucas Giolito | CHC: Kyle Hendricks
We have another game between the Chicago teams in what could be a fun matchup between Lucas Giolito and Kyle Hendricks. Giolito is 0-1 on the year with a 2.57 ERA and 2.42 xFIP. His K-BB% is 27.6% which is higher than his career-high of 24.3% in 2019. Kyle Hendricks is 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, and a K-BB% of 9.1%, which is lower than his career-low of 11.1% last season.
It is cold and the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, which is why we see a total of just seven runs in this game. Yesterday it was similar weather conditions and only four runs were scored in that game. Was it all the weather or was it just good pitching?
Kyle Hendricks is on the decline and this White Sox offense is one that we expected to be one of the best in the league, despite being No. 26 so far in runs scored. Something that can help a struggling or slow offense to get going is to face a pitcher that isn't striking anyone out. I expect the White Sox to make a lot of contact in this game.
Even if the weather suppresses home runs, seven runs projected with a struggling pitcher is pretty low. I will take a flier on the game going over the seven runs today at even money. If I'm wrong, well that's why we bankroll manage.
Pick: Over 7.0 Runs (+100), DraftKings, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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