RADIO
I am going to start this column by reviewing the concept of ADP, which you are likely familiar with. Fantasy football Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the average value of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.
Free agency is long over, and now the NFL Draft is in the books too. It's been just hours since the first-year player draft took happened through the past few days, so I figured it'd make sense to give my two cents on who came out as a winner and who did so as a loser after all teams picked their freshest assets in time for the 2022 season. We'll review actual ADP trends later in May to see how they have changed among fantasy GMs as we start to gear up for the real-life draft and our very own fantasy draft season. Let's get it going!
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Wide Receivers - Fantasy Football Risers
Chris Olave - New Orleans Saints
Perfect landing spot for a perfectly good wide receiver prospect. Olave isn't worst than the fifth-best WR talent in this year's class of rookies. He's landing in a dream scenario in which he'll share the field with WR1 Michael Thomas (who will command all of the defense's attention and then some) and RB1 Alvin Kamara (as if Thomas alone wasn't enough to keep defenses honest...). On top of everything, he will get thrown passes by gunslinger Jameis Winston, which is definitely a fantasy booster. And who knows if Mike will make it through the full season with his injury issues of late. Win-win for everybody.
Skyy Moore - Kansas City Chiefs
Whoever the Chiefs went with to bolster their wide receiver corps was going to get a boost in ADP and upside. Obviously, the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill and that alone is reason enough to see the glaring hole KC will have to patch in 2022. That said, the Chiefs ran smooth operations and ended with JuJu Smith-Schuster and MVS this offseason. They are now adding Skyy Moore to those two and Mecole Hardman. The offense might look a bit crowded, but Moore is fantastic and Mahomes won't have any issue looking for the rookie with ridiculous passes through the season. Don't spend a super high pick on him, but make sure to throw some late-round darts Moore's way.
Drake London - Atlanta Falcons
Not a lot to explain here. London is landing in the franchise needing a legit WR1 the most in the Falcons. The competition will be slim at best for London (at least in 2022) as Calvin Ridley is out for the year, Olamide Zaccheaus projects as the WR2, and only Kyle Pitts (perhaps the best offensive player on the roster but still a tight end) potentially taking targets from Drake. Mariota will also help as a veteran QB in the known.
Treylon Burks - Tennessee Titans
No A.J. Brown in the rotation meant an addition must be coming Tennessee's way whether they wanted it or not. Enter rookie Treylon Burks. The Titans will have a fresh WR1/WR2 package made out of Robert Woods and Burks, while Tennessee also added a couple of tight ends in Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim. Given Woods' injury concerns, there is a chance Burks ends up leading the Titans' offense at some point as the season grows older.
Rashod Bateman - Baltimore Ravens
Remove Mark Andrews from the Ravens offense and you're left with a skeleton of a pass-catching corps. Of course, Andrews is going nowhere and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see him command 170+ targets now that Marquise Brown is not in Baltimore anymore. With no other viable options available, Lamar Jackson will look Bateman's way more often than not. Don't chase the wideout with an early pick, but keep in mind volume trumps everything in fantasy football and Bateman will be the legit WR1 for the Ravens as things stand.
Christian Watson - Green Bay Packers
I don't think anybody would complain about landing in A-Rod Town and getting to play for a bona fide Hall of Fame quarterback from the start of his career. Watson was the lucky receiver chosen by the Packers to bolster their receiving corps and he will get a WR2 role straight out of college. Allen Lazard isn't a lock to play all 17 games next season because he tends to miss time with injury, so Watson will inevitably get solid numbers if only because he will be under Rodger's command.
Wide Receivers - Fantasy Football Fallers
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith - Philadelphia Eagles
Salute A.J. Brown for filling the bag. Some folks out there hate what Brown did in forcing Tennessee's hand until it all broke, but he did the right thing by chasing what he thinks he's worthy of (a $100 million deal, per reports). That said, Brown lands in a team with a quarterback that has a worse arm than the one he's leaving behind (Ryan Tannehill) while getting to share the field with a clogged wideout corps that features fellow-loser DeVonta Smith. The second-year man will have it tough to out-target Brown next season in Philly after a nice rookie season last year. Murdered upside, that of DVS.
Garrett Wilson - New York Jets
I don't doubt Wilson's talent, but the Jets are still an NFL team led by a second-year middling rookie. Zach Wilson wasn't atrocious, but what was there to make you sure Wilson won't turn into a pumpkin and follow Sam Darnold's steps out of NYC as soon as next summer? The Jets have a balanced receiving corps in which there seems to be no clear no. 1 option (Elijah Moore? Corey Davis? Braxton Berrios?) so targets might get super-shared among all of the receivers--not to mention the two FA-tight-ends acquired a few weeks ago--in the rotation.
Jahan Dotson - Washington Commanders
This is not a hit on Carson Wentz, even though it is too. The thing with Dotson's upside playing football in D.C. is that he will do so for a team that has a packed offense in which 1) Terry McLaurin is still the clear head honcho, 2) Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown deserve all of the targets they will get, and 3) Logan Thomas is coming back from a lost year after having a tremendous 2020 year prior to the forgettable 2021 season. Dotson might have booming games here and there, but his options for a legit WR2 finish are just a little bit off in Washington.
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