RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate! This is the last week of the NHL regular season so let's make it a profitable one
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Thursday, April 28th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/28/22
We have a nine-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern staggered to starting at 10:00 pm Eastern. With this being essentially the second to last day of the regular season and all of the playoff teams locked up, these slates can be difficult to play. It is best to check the line rushes on Twitter about 20-30 minutes before the game locks to make sure the players you like are in the game! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup pre-lock and getting zeros from guys resting up for the playoffs or shutting it down early in the regular season.
NHL DFS Goalies
Linus Ullmark - DK $8.3K || FD $8.5K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Linus Ullmark is my favorite play on the slate at the goalie position mostly because he is facing a weak opponent and the Bruins coach says the starting goalie job is up in the air. Ullmark is going to be motivated to play well in this spot and he should considering Buffalo is not good and the Bruins are playing at home. On the season Ullmark is 25-10-2 with a 2.51 GAA and a .914 SV%.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Smith (DK $8.5K || FD $8.1K), Knight (DK $8.0K || FD $8.3K), Vanecek (DK $7.9K || FD $7.5K), Demko ($7.8K || FD $7.6K - GPP only and he is injured and may not play anyway. I do not like the pivot if Spencer Martin starts).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Steven Stamkos- DK $7.6K || FD $7.9K - Winger on FD
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Tampa Bay is three points up on the Bruins with two games left each. In theory, if the Bruins were to overtake Tampa Bay, the Lightning would be a Wildcard team. This is important because this is a game that Tampa Bay will try to win or at least take to overtime to ensure they are seeded higher. Stamkos averages 1.28 points per game, 2.94 shots on goal per game, and he is one goal short of 40 scored on the season. I could see the team trying to help him get to 40 goals scored. Columbus has allowed the second-most shots on goal per game this season (35.13). If motivated, Tampa Bay should blow them out.
Patrice Bergeron - DK $6.4K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
I like Bergeron and Boston in this spot tonight. He is a little underpriced on the slate, especially on DraftKings in my opinion. He has had 18 shots on goal in the last three games combined and he averages 4.01 shots on goal per game this season. His value comes from attempting shots on goal and hopefully, he can get a point against this Buffalo team that allows 3.5 goals per game on average.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): MacKinnon (DK $8.9K || FD $10.0K - GPP only), McDavid (DK $8.4K || FD $10.1K - GPP only if active), Draisaitl (DK $8.0K || FD $9.9K - GPP only if active), Kadri (DK $7.1K || FD $8.1K), Point (DK $6.0K || FD $7.0K), Hartman (DK $5.1K || FD $6.3K), Eriksson Ek (DK $4.6K || FD $5.4K), Stuetzle (DK $4.4K || FD $5.6K - Winger on FD), Backlund (DK $3.0K || FD $4.5K)...... Check line rushes. There might be a center that has been playing on a second or third line move up, unexpected value could open up.
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
David Pastrnak - DK $7.3K || FD $8.5K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
I have talked about this spot enough for Boston. Pastrnak is one goal away from 40 on the season and 4.34 shots on goal per game.
Evander Kane - DK $5.8K || FD $6.8K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Evander Kane has taken his game up a level recently. He has a four-game goal-scoring streak with six total goals scored. Over that same span, he has two assists and 22 shots on goal. Edmonton does have their playoff seed locked up, but I do not foresee them resting Kane, but we will see what happens when the line rushes are announced.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kucherov (DK $7.8K || FD $9.3K), Marchand (DK $7.4K || FD $7.9K), Meier (DK $6.9K || FD $8.8K), Duchene (DK $6.2K || FD $7.6K), Giroux (DK $4.7K || FD $6.2K), Burakovsky (DK $4.2K || FD $5.3K), Marchment (DK $3.5K || FD $5.4K), Palat or Colton (DK $3.4K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Victor Hedman- DK $7.7K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - Columbus Bluejackets
On a slate with Josi and Makar, it is Hedman I'd rather have tonight. Nashville is locked into being a wildcard team and will play either Colorado or Calgary based on where they finish. Either way, they are locked in for a tough series. With Colorado, Makar might play but it really doesn't matter who wins or loses other than you don't want to give away a game to a team you could potentially play in the first round of the playoffs.
Charlie McAvoy - DK $5.8K || FD $6.2K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Boston is going to want to try to get out of being a wildcard team and while the probability is low, mathematically it is possible. I would expect Boston to put forth a strong effort to get the win in regulation in this one. McAvoy averages 0.71 points per game, 2.14 shots on goal per game, and 1.62 blocked shots per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Josi (DK $8.9K || FD $8.0K - GPP only), Makar (DK $7.8K || FD $7.2K - GPP only), Chabot (DK $5.6K || FD $3.5K), Burns (DK $5.5K || FD $5.7K), Toews (DK $5.2K || FD $6.0K), Bouchard (DK $5.0K || FD $4.8K), Sergachev (DK $4.3K || FD $5.1K), Hamonic (DK $3.4K || FD $4.4K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
As stated before, we are at the point in the season where some teams are motivated and some are not. Some individual players are trying to hit milestones. We are going to want to lean in on players about to reach milestones and teams that can still move with the seeding.
With seeding, Boston and Tampa Bay are three points apart with two games left each. Pittsburgh is one game up on Washington for a wildcard spot. Nashville and Dallas are battling for who will be the Wildcard 1 vs. Wildcard 2 as they are just one point apart. The Wild and Blues are tied for points; they are going to play each other but the points will determine who gets home ice.
Based on that narrative, the teams I am going to have an interest in stacking are Boston, Tampa Bay, Washington, Nashville, and Minnesota. I would be interested in the Top two lines from any of these teams and have power-play correlation as my main stack. Having a secondary full line stack of one of these teams would be fine as well and I would want to try to find a second line as my filler stack.
Here are players that are approaching milestones that I would target as one-offs or part of my stacks:
- Johnny Gaudreau - 39 goals
- Steven Stamkos - 39 goals
- Aleksander Barkov - 39 goals, 88 points
- David Pastrnak - 39 goals
- Brady Tkachuk - 29 goals
- Brayden Point - 28 goals
- Nathan MacKinnon - 88 points
- Mats Zuccarello - 79 points
- Brad Marchand - 78 points
My main advice is to be up on the news, line rushes, and respond to teams resting players. This time of year can be challenging but also provide a larger edge if you are up on what the teams are doing! Best of luck!
