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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/24/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! We had ourselves another 1-1 day yesterday in the article. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Sunday, April 24, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 11-10-1, -2.23 units
- Sides: 8-5, +1.54 units
- Totals: 2-5-1, -3.78 units
- Notes: Unfortunately my concerns regarding the Athletics offense came to fruition in yesterday's game, as they got shut out by Martin Perez and the Rangers bullpen. It took some late-night heroics from Ty France and the Mariners to get the 1-1 finish, but it certainly could've been worse. We're onto today.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CIN +134
STL: Adam Wainwright | CIN: Nick Lodolo
I'll start today's slate off out in Cincinnati, as the Cardinals and Reds close out their series. The Cardinals will send Adam Wainwright to the mound. The veteran has had a solid start to the season, coming into this start with a 2-1 record, a 2.81 ERA, and an xFIP of 2.64. Waino hasn't won a start against the Reds since August of 2020, but it's extremely clear this is a different Reds team. The 2022 Reds rank dead last in OPS (.508) and wRC+ (45) against right-handed pitching, as well as being dead last in runs per game.
On the other side of the matchup, Cincinnati will be sending rookie Nick Lodolo to the hill. Lodolo has thrown nine innings in two starts in the young season, coming into this one 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA, but just a 3.43 xFIP. I do think Lodolo will be good, but he faces a serious test today against a Cardinals offense that ranks second in both OPS (.922) and wRC+ (169) against southpaws. Lodolo's allowed eight runs in nine innings, and I just can't see him having his Major League "coming-out party" this afternoon.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Cardinals at -158 in this one, good for a 61.24% odds. My model gives the Cardinals a 63.84% chance of winning in this one. Just a slight bit of model value here, but it's hard not to feel good about St. Louis in this situation. The Reds have dropped eight straight games after they've allowed five runs in their previous game, and the Cardinals have won four straight against the Reds and six of seven in Cincinnati. A likely playoff club with their ace on the mound against a cellar dweller with a rookie on the mound, I'll take the value in St. Louis.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Money Line (-158) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SD -112
LAD: Clayton Kershaw | SD: Sean Manaea
We'll head to the west coast for the second pick of the day, this time an NRFI. We have a great pitching matchup this late afternoon as Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers take on Sean Manaea and the Padres. Kershaw looks to continue his decently hot start, coming into this one 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and an xFIP of 0.80. As far as NRFIs go, Kershaw is 4-1 in his last five overall, 3-2 in his last five on the road, and 4-1 in his last five against the Padres. The Padres rank ninth in OPS (.752) and sixth in wRC+ (125) against southpaws, but Kershaw has been pitching so well I think he gets through the first without much trouble.
On the other side of the field, Sean Manaea takes the ball for the Padres. Manaea is 2-1 on the year with a 1.42 ERA and a 3.14 xFIP. Regarding his NRFI stats, he's 1-1 on the year, 3-2 in his last five overall, 4-1 in his last five at home (though 0-1 in San Diego thanks to a Tommy Pham home run last Monday). However, Manaea has shown he has the same elite stuff as last year, and you can't bank on the Dodgers scoring runs whenever a lefty is on the mound. Following last year's relative struggles against left-handed pitching, the Dodgers rank 29th in OPS (.511) and 27th in wRC+ (58) against southpaws.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the NRFI in this one a bit juiced at -145, good for 59.18% implied odds. As I mentioned the other day I don't quite have my runs per inning dashboard complete, but based on the data I currently have, I do think this NRFI has more than a 60% chance of hitting. It is a Sunday slate so anything can happen, but across the entire Sunday MLB betting market, this is one of the best plays I was able to find.
Pick: NRFI (-145) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers! Stay tuned for more plays throughout the day!
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