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Welcome back, RotoBallers! Opening Day is finally upon us. I've been looking forward to Opening Day for months, throughout the trials and tribulations of the lockout and all the way through Spring Training and I'm happy to say, we've finally made it. The RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for Opening Day and throughout the season as a whole. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Thursday, April 7, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 0-0
- Sides: 0-0
- Totals: 0-0
- Notes: This is where I will usually recap my results from the last day I made picks.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: CHC +146
MIL: Corbin Burnes | CHC: Kyle Hendricks
I want to start off things by saying that I typically play it safe early in the season. Most of the data that I'm pulling is from the 2021 season, and with Major League Baseball being as volatile as it is on a year-to-year basis, I like to keep it close to the chest. My bets today will reflect this.
Milwaukee heads to the Windy City tomorrow to take on the Chicago Cubs whose lineup looks to be among the worst in the Majors this season. While I'm not overly excited about the Brewers lineup either, they will be sending reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes to the bump to face a lineup that he went 2-0 with an ERA of 1.35 across three starts last season. Opposing starter Kyle Hendricks didn't have similar success against Milwaukee last year, posting a 1-1 record across 22 innings in four starts last year, finishing with a 6.14 ERA against the Brew Crew.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the Brewers at -174 tomorrow, giving the Brewers implied odds of 63.5%. My projection model gives Milwaukee a 65.86% chance of winning, giving us a solid +2.36% EV on this bet, with a final score of 5.37-3.77 favoring Milwaukee. As I mentioned, I try and play it safe on Opening Day, so I'll just be running the money line here.
Pick: Milwaukee ML (-174) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
If you love betting on player props, consider signing up for a premium DFS or betting package at RotoBaller and get access to all of the customized strikeout projections that I post daily in our premium slack chat!
#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: STL -205
PIT: JT Brubaker | STL: Adam Wainwright
Adam Wainwright will be entering his 17th and likely final season with the Cardinals in 2022, getting the nod for his sixth Opening Day start. He's found success against the Pirates in his career, starting 41 games to a 21-7 record with a 3.73 ERA, including winning each of his four starts against Pittsburgh last season, where he logged 30 innings and a 0.30 ERA.
It's unfortunate I'll be betting against the Pirates today (sorry ThunderDan and Tommy), especially considering I'll be betting against my namesake, JT Brubaker. Brubaker made 24 starts for Pittsburgh last season, logging a 5-13 record and 5.36 ERA. He lost each of his four starts against St. Louis last season, finishing with a 6.65 ERA against the red birds.
The money line here is super juiced, as FanDuel is giving the Cardinals -205 and implied odds of 67.21%. However, my projection model is giving the Cardinals a 70.63% chance of winning. This gives us another +EV bet at +3.42%, with a final score of 4.92-3.36 favoring the Cardinals. I have no problem drinking the juice here, as we'll take what we can get on Opening Day.
Pick: St. Louis ML (-205), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!
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