RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, April 1st, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/1/22
We have a seven-game slate tonight. We have games starting at staggered times between 7:00 pm Eastern and 10:30 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Anton Forsberg - DK $7.3K|| FD $7.0K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Anton Forsberg is too cheap on this slate. Even though Ottawa is a slight underdog, Forsberg is a decent goalie. He is 15-14-3 with a 2.74 GAA, one shutout, and a .919 SV%. Detroit is No. 23 in the NHL in shots attempted per game. This game is a coin flip and Forsberg is one of the cheapest goalies on the slate. You may not get the win, but as long as he doesn't blow up, he should make value.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vasilevskiy (DK $8.5K || FD $8.4K), Shesterkin (DK $8.4K || FD $8.6K), Saros (DK $8.3K || FD $8.3K), Lehner (DK $8.1K || FD $7.8K), Husso (DK $7.9K || FD $8.0K - GPP), Nedeljkovic (DK $7.8K || FD $7.5K), Grubauer (DK $7.2K || FD $6.9K - GPP).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Connor McDavid- DK $9.3K || FD $10.3K
Opponent - Saint Louis Blues
Saint Louis is not normally a team that one would target, however, the Center position on this slate is to either pay all the way up for McDavid or Draisaitl or to pay down for Center on this slate. McDavid has 100 points (37 goals, 63 assists) in 67 games played averaging 3.91 shots on goal per game. McDavid is a better play for a GPP due to having the highest ceiling on the slate. One can find values at better price points than McDavid.
Brayden Point- DK $5.8K || FD $7.8K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Brayden Points has 51 points (25 goals, 26 assists) in 52 games played. He averages 2.73 shots on goal per game. He is not someone that is a high ceiling play, but a solid cash game play, especially on DraftKings. Tampa Bay is implied for 4.3 goals, and Point should score a point in this game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Draisaitl (DK $8.5K || FD $10.1K), Thompson (DK $6.7K || FD $7.6K), Stutzle (DK $5.1K || FD $4.9K - Winger on FD), Zegras (DK $4.8K || FD $5.9K), Thomas (DK $4.1K || FD $5.0K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
Nikita Kucherov - DK $7.1K|| FD $9.2K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
I love playing Nikita Kucherov on DraftKings when he is under $8K because I believe he should be priced at $8K. Kucherov is injured frequently but when is on the ice, there aren't many in the league that are better. In 31 games, he has 38 points (11 goals, 27 assists) averaging 3.5 shots on goal per game. As stated before, Tampa Bay is implied for 4.3 goals and a heavy favorite in the game. I like Kucherov as a stand-alone play, as part of a Tampa Bay 1 stack, or paired with Brayden Point.
Jonathan Marchessault- DK $6.5K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Jonathan Marchessault has 55 points (26 goals, 29 assists) in 63 games played. He also averages 3.48 shots on goal per game. I do not often recommend Marchessault in this price range, as I typically like to target my preferred plays as point-per-game players if they are not complete punts. That said, he averages a high number of shots per game and is facing a Seattle team that is not very good. Vegas is implied for 3.5 goals, and while he does not average a point per game, I am going to hope that Marchessault shoots 3-4 shots on goal and scores a point in this matchup.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Forsberg (DK $8.0K || FD $8.2K), Duchene (DK $6.7K || FD $7.1K), Stamkos (DK $6.4K || FD $8.4K), B. Tkachuk (DK $6.1K || FD $6.9K), Buchnevich (DK $5.3K || FD $6.2K), Terry (DK $4.5K || FD $6.1K), Stephenson (DK $3.7K || FD $4.8K - C on FanDuel)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Roman Josi - DK $9.0K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Roman Josi makes for a great play on FanDuel but a not-so-great play on DraftKings. On DraftKings, he averages 16.9 DraftKings points per game while the next most expensive defenseman, Victor Hedman, averages 13.1 DraftKings Points per game and is priced at $6.8K. He averages 0.1 more DraftKings points per game than Leon Draisaitl but is $500 more expensive for comparison to other positions. Because of this, he is more of a GPP play for me on DraftKings and is cash viable on FanDuel. Josi has 82 points (18 goals, 64 assists) in 66 games played. He averages 3.54 shots on goal per game and 1.68 blocked shots per game. He has the most upside out of any defensemen on the slate and is the only one averaging more than one point per game, heading into a strong matchup against Buffalo.
Jacob Trouba- DK $5.7K || FD $5.3K
Opponent - New York Islanders
Jacob Trouba is always a solid play in the mid-range, especially on DraftKings. He has 33 points (10 goals, 23 assists) in 68 games played. He averages 2.55 shots per game and 2.23 blocked shots per game. He is always a threat to reach the three blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. He does play on the second power-play unit, often I prefer defenders on the first power-play unit, but his blocked shots create a nice floor for him.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hedman (DK $6.8K || FD $7.0K), Pietrangelo (DK $6.7K || FD $6.6K), Fox (DK $6.5K || FD $6.6K), Nurse (DK $6.0K || FD $6.1K), Gostisbehere (DK $5.3K || FD $5.7K), Sergachev (DK $4.9K || FD $4.7K), Hamonic (DK $4.0K || FD $4.6K), Ceci (DK $3.0K || FD $4.8K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Tampa Bay (4.3 implied goals), Edmonton (3.6 implied goals), Vegas (3.5 implied goals), and Nashville (3.5 implied goals) are the teams with the highest implied total. One strategy I am considering is to take a stack from whichever of these teams might be overlooked. The top two lines and the top power-play from any of these teams is viable, as long as they are not too chalky. I could see Vegas and Nashville being overlooked, but this is something to check back on closer to lock as far as what the content around the industry is saying.
Other stacks I like from the choices above are:
Anaheim PP1 Arizona has the No. 30 penalty kill (73.2%) and Anaheim has the No. 11 power-play percentage (22.8%).
Saint Louis PP1: Saint Louis has the No. 3 power-play percentage (26.2%) and Edmonton has the No. 21 penalty kill (76.9%). Leverage on Edmonton stacks as well.
Tampa Bay 3: They have scored 22 goals as a forward combination. While Tampa Bay 1 and 2 will be very popular, a way to get cheap exposure to this game is to use Tampa Bay 3 as a filler stack and will be sneaky on a large slate like this.
Detroit 1: This is my sneaky stack of the night. I did write up Forsberg on the slate, but Detroit is actually favored in the game. Detroit's 3.2 implied goal total will be overlooked on this sized slate with so many great options. This line is correlated to the power play but unfortunately, their power play percentage is No. 27 (18.2%) in the league. There is some risk with this stack, but it's one I will consider if playing multiple lineups and in a large GPP.
If you are looking to get sneaky anywhere stack-wise, find a high-owned goalie and choose the most productive stack against that goalie's opponent for leverage, especially in a large field GPP.
