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DFS NASCAR Statistical Preview for Ruoff Mortgage 500: DraftKings, FanDuel DFS Picks

Our new NASCAR “By the DFS Numbers” Race Previews feature a combination of statistical package highlights from Loop Data reports and the RotoBaller Cup Series Research Station.

Loop Data, which are the advanced statistics that are electronically recorded by NASCAR to more accurately illustrate how drivers perform, are showcased here as very relevant indicators. Loop Data stats are useful in DFS NASCAR to tell us which drivers have performed the best at particular tracks. They determine how a driver actually fares without the negative factors of crashes, car issues, and pit problems. Do keep in mind that with the Cup Series now featuring the Next Gen car, Loop Data statistics are helpful, but not rigid factors when projecting performances.

The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent, and projected stats and more Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.

Get access to the Research Station with the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for an additional discount. We also have Research Stations for the Xfinity and Truck Series.

 

Ruoff Mortgage 500: By The DFS Numbers

Drivers are listed in order of preference for usage. Research Station indicators are in italics. All Loop Data stats are for the last four races at Phoenix Raceway dating back to 2020 unless otherwise indicated.  We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend should also be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.

Kyle Larson – Third in Driver Rating in the last four Phoenix races dating back to 2020 (110.4). 13 percent Implied Odds to win, best of all drivers. Projected to score 60.9 DraftKings points, tops among all drivers.

Ryan Blaney10 percent Implied Odds to win, second-best among all drivers. Had the second fastest 10 Consecutive Lap Average and second-fastest single lap in practice.

William Byron – Leads in Quality Passes (passes of cars in the Top 15 while under Green Flag Conditions, 229). Fourth in Green Flag Passes (393). Had the best Consecutive 10 Consecutive Lap Average in practice.

Denny Hamlin - Second in Fastest Laps Run in the last four Phoenix races dating back to 2020 (120). Third-best in all-time Fastest Laps Run (567).

Joey Logano – Second in Driver Rating in the last four Phoenix races dating back to 2020 (120.1). Fourth in Fastest Laps Run (111). Second in Laps Led (328). Has finished in the Top 5 in 77 percent of his Short/Flat Track starts. Has 18.8 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers in recent Phoenix starts, second-best among all drivers.

RotoBaller NASCAR Research Station Highlights - Phoenix

Kyle Busch – Third in Quality Passes (217). Third-best in all-time Driver Rating (103.8). Projected to score 58.55 DraftKings points, second-most among all drivers. Has a 10.7 Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers and 22.2 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers, both best among all drivers in recent Phoenix starts.

Chase Elliott/Martin Truex Jr.Good Place Differential Targets, starting in 19th and 20th, respectively. Both drivers are projected to score 57-plus DraftKings points. Truex is $900 cheaper on DraftKings at $9800.

Austin Cindric20 percent Implied Odds to finish in the Top 5, best among all drivers below $9400. Had the single Fastest Lap in practice. A prime value play at $7700.

Aric Almirola – Second in Green Flag Passes at Phoenix dating back to 2020 (412). Second in Quality Passes (227). Has finished in the Top 10 in 62 percent of his Short/Flat track starts. Has 12.6 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers in recent Phoenix starts.

Tyler Reddick – Fifth in Green Flag Passes (373). Projected to score 43.00 DraftKings points, second-most among all drivers below $9000.

Chase Briscoe35 percent Implied Odds to finish in the Top 10, best among all drivers under $7700. One of the best bargain selections at $6900.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Starts 36th and is a top Place Differential target. Projected to score 37.60 DraftKings points, the most of any driver below $8000.

A.J. Allmendinger - Starts 29th and is another top Place Differential target. Projected to score 36.00 DraftKings points, the second-most of any driver below $8000. Has 10.7 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers in recent Phoenix starts.

Cole Custer – Leads all drivers in Green Flag Passes at Phoenix dating back to 2020 (434). Fifth in Quality Passes (192).

NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks

More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis



The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success

NASCAR is back, and it's time for you to win more with RotoBaller!
Our NASCAR Premium Package for DFS and betting features several heavy hitters and proven winners.

Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR DFS and betting picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! Jordan had a 60+ unit betting profit in 2024 NASCAR, and a 25% average annual profit since 2018. He won the FSWA Racing Writer Of The Year award in 2023, and has been nominated for DFS Writer Of The Year in 2024.

Five-time NASCAR Racing Writer of the Year finalist and fantasy industry legend Scott "The King" Engel is also in the crew, bringing you his weekly strategies and lineup picks. Set your winning DFS lineups with our award-winning team. He has been nominated once again in 2024 for this award.

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tetairoa McMillan

Scores his First Two Touchdowns in Win Over Dallas
Ja'Marr Chase

Posts Double-Digit Catches in First Game With New Quarterback
Kendrick Bourne

Records 142 Receiving Yards for Second Straight Week
Kimani Vidal

Dominates Backfield Touches, has Huge Game in Week 6
Ladd McConkey

Explodes for 100 Yards and Touchdown in Win
Jonathan Taylor

Has Another Enormous Showing Against Arizona
Josh Jacobs

Scores Two Touchdowns in Victory Over Cincinnati
Brandon Woodruff

Will Not be on NLCS Roster
Jauan Jennings

Playing Through Five Broken Ribs, Multiple Ankle Sprains
Fred Warner

Likely Done for the Season
George Pickens

Explosive Again While Filling in for Teammate
De'Von Achane

Scores Twice in Best Rushing Performance of the Season
Fred Warner

Dislocates his Ankle in Week 6
Emeka Egbuka

Downgraded to Out on Sunday
Trey Hendrickson

Won't Return in Week 6
Emeka Egbuka

is Doubtful to Return with Hamstring Injury
Rico Dowdle

has Another Huge Performance in Revenge Game
Calvin Ridley

Won't Return in Week 6
Trey Hendrickson

Questionable to Return With Back Injury
Kayshon Boutte

Scores Two Big Touchdowns in Return to Louisiana
Tua Tagovailoa

Calls Out Teammates and Leadership Following Week 6 Loss
Fred Warner

Injures Ankle, Won't Return in Week 6
Keegan Murray

to Undergo Surgery
Max Scherzer

Added to ALCS Roster
Bryan Woo

Makes ALCS Roster
Bo Bichette

Won't Make ALCS Roster
Sacramento Kings

Russell Westbrook, Kings Have "Strong Mutual Interest"
Christopher Bell

the Favorite to Win at Las Vegas
Denny Hamlin

on the Pole at Las Vegas
Joey Logano

Can Joey Logano Get Lucky in Las Vegas Again?
William Byron

has the Fastest Car in Practice at Las Vegas
Ty Gibbs

Speed of Ty Gibbs a Good Sign for Toyota at Las Vegas
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Should Contend at Las Vegas
Ross Chastain

Scrapes Wall in Practice But Qualifies 15th at Las Vegas
Chris Buescher

Looking for Improvement at Las Vegas
Austin Cindric

It Has Been Hit or Miss for Austin Cindric at Las Vegas
Steven Lorentz

Exits With Injury Saturday
Carson Soucy

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Versus Penguins
Erik Gudbranson

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Sean Durzi

Hurt Against Predators
Jaccob Slavin

Suffers Injury Saturday
Kris Letang

Under Evaluation for Undisclosed Injury
Josh Norris

Will Miss "a Significant Amount of Time"
Chase Elliott

Should Run Well at Las Vegas
Kyle Larson

Conservatism May Keep him from Replicating Previous Las Vegas Drive
Josh Berry

After Josh Berry's Las Vegas Win, Ryan Blaney Should be a Top Contender
Chase Briscoe

has Definitely Improved on Intermediate Tracks
Tyler Reddick

An Excellent DFS Option on Paper
Alex Bowman

May Not Get the Attention he Needs at Las Vegas
Brad Keselowski

34th-Place Qualifying Run Makes Him a Must-Start in DFS
Shane Van Gisbergen

Still Not Really Viable for DFS Play
Josh Berry

Chance for a Las Vegas Sweep Looks Unbelievably Remote
Carson Hocevar

a Top-Tier DFS Option at Las Vegas
Ryan Preece

Probably Won't Finish Third Again at Las Vegas
Michael McDowell

Las Vegas is One of Michael McDowell's Worst Tracks
Haydn Fleury

Injures Kneecap Saturday
Pyotr Kochetkov

Out for at Least One Week
Samuel Girard

Labeled as Week-to-Week
Jonas Brodin

Available Saturday
Evgenii Dadonov

to Miss at Least Two Games
Hampus Lindholm

Misses Saturday's Game
Vincent Trocheck

Out Week-to-Week
Bryan Rust

Ready for Season Debut Saturday
Gleyber Torres

Will Undergo Surgery to Repair Sports Hernia
Bryan Woo

Expected to be on Mariners' ALCS Roster
Owen Power

Joins Team for Trip to Boston
Zach Benson

Remains Out Saturday
Josh Norris

Not Expected to Play Saturday
Luke Evangelista

Set for Season Debut Saturday
Mackenzie Blackwood

Back at Practice
Dmitry Kulikov

Placed on Injured Reserve
CFB

CJ Baxter to Miss Saturday's Game Against No. 6 Oklahoma
CFB

Syracuse QB Steve Angeli Will Miss Significant Time
Cody Bellinger

Plans to Opt Out of Contract
MLB

Munetaka Murakami Will be Posted This Winter
Nathan Eovaldi

has Hernia Surgery, Should be Ready for Spring Training
Mateusz Gamrot

Set For UFC Rio Main Event
Charles Oliveira

Returns At UFC Rio
Montel Jackson

Set For UFC Rio Co-Main Event
Deiveson Figueiredo

Returns At UFC Rio
Joel Álvarez

Joel Alvarez Set for his Welterweight Debut
Vicente Luque

A Huge Underdog
Deandre Ayton

Still Waiting to Build Chemistry With Lakers Stars
Mario Pinto

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Jhonata Diniz

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kaan Ofli

Looks To Secure His First Octagon Win
Ricardo Ramos

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Michael Aswell

Looks For His First UFC Win
Lucas Almeida

Set To Open Up UFC Rio Main Card
VJ Edgecombe

Will Not Play on Friday
T.J. McConnell

Expected to Miss at Least a Month
Ben Sheppard

Unlikely to Play in Next Two Preseason Games
Dylan Harper

in Line to Play in First Preseason Game
CFB

North Carolina's Caleb Hood Retiring from College Football
CFB

Jeff Sims Likely to Start Against Utah
CFB

Syracuse QB Steve Angeli Will Miss Remainder of 2025 Season With Torn Achilles
CFB

Sam Leavitt Not Expected to Play for Arizona State on Saturday
CFB

John Mateer Upgraded to Probable Ahead of Saturday's Red-River Shootout
VJ Edgecombe

Misses Practice Thursday
Jaylen Wells

To Have an Expanded Role in the Offense?
Drake Powell

Appears Ready for His Exhibition Debut
Egor Demin

Will Miss Friday's Exhibition Game
Joe Ingles

Shut Down for a Week
LeBron James

Will Miss at Least 3-4 Weeks
Tanner Scott

Removed From NLDS Roster After Lower-Body Procedure
CFB

Ryan Williams Will Be Available Against No. 14 Missouri On Saturday
Matisse Thybulle

Nursing Knee Soreness
Seth Curry

"Still Ramping Up" and Not Ready for Action
Jalen Suggs

Still Hasn't Been Cleared for Contact
Stephon Castle

Battling Knee Issue
Scottie Barnes

Dealing With Knee Problem
Jaylen Brown

Looks Sharp in Preseason Opener
CFB

John Mateer Officially Questionable Ahead of Saturday's Game vs. Texas
Will Smith

Catching in Game 3 of NLDS
CFB

North Carolina Discussing Buyout Option Of Coach Bill Belichick
Trendon Watford

Held Out of Practice on Wednesday
Joel Embiid

Takes Part in Practice on Wednesday
Jackson Chourio

Back in Lineup for NLDS Game 3
Roki Sasaki

"Definitely the Primary Option" in Save Situations for Dodgers
Sahith Theegala

Still Uneven Heading to Japan
Nicolai Hojgaard

Trying to Pick Up Pieces After Last Three Efforts
Vince Whaley

Tries to Add on From Sanderson Farms Performance
Adam Scott

Struggling Some Heading to Baycurrent Classic
PGA

Chris Gotterup Expects to Contend at Baycurrent Classic
Si Woo Kim

Primed for Baycurrent Classic
Garrick Higgo

Finishes Second at Sanderson Farms Championship
Max Homa

Finishes Tied for 18th at Sanderson Farms Championship
Wyndham Clark

Misses The Cut at Omega European Masters
Rasmus Hojgaard

Finishes Tied For Third at Sanderson Farms Championship
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied for 13th at BMW PGA Championship
Xander Schauffele

Returns To Action After Ryder Cup
Jackson Chourio

Day-to-Day Heading into Game 3 of NLDS
Josh Naylor

Starting for Mariners in Game 3 of ALDS
CFB

John Mateer Likely to Play Against Texas?

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