A Tale of Two Months: Shortstop

June 16, 2021

Nicklaus Gaut analyzes fantasy baseball risers and fallers at shortstop. He breaks down which SS have the biggest changes in their wOBA from April to March.

With over two months now in the books, and many players having played nearly as many games as they did in 2020, it's time to take stock on the truth behind various hot starts and slumps.

However, we shouldn't do so just for our own edification, as there is good instruction to be had. Knowing who to target and who to trade away; who can be relied on for the future and who you need to have backup plans for. Don't wait until right before the trade deadline to start making moves. The time is now.

With that in mind, we're going to go around the positions, using the biggest differences in wOBA between April and May as our jumping-off point. And since we're now a few weeks in, we might as well include June too. After covering first base, second base, and the hot corner, it's time to head over to short. Let's find some truth in spring advertisements, shall we?

Shortstop wOBA Changes

First, a few parameters and explanations. We'll use a minimum of 50 PA in each of April and May (and June) as our cutoff and players will be sorted according to change in wOBA. All stats are through Monday and all values mentioned are from the FanGraphs auction calculator, using settings for a 12-team league with: C (1) - 1B (1) - 2B (1) - SS (1) - 3B (1) - OF (5) - MI (1) - CI (1) - UT (1).

Regardless of whether a player's wOBA has gone up, down, or stayed the same, that change doesn't tell the whole story, so we'll try to get a better sense of the whole picture using fantasy value breakdowns and a variety of advanced stats. And pictures, too!

Speaking of which:

The Good

Brandon Crawford, SS, SF ($22.5, SS 8)

214 PA: 15 HR - 36 R - 44 RBI - 4 SB - .257/.341/.545

Crawford is the early front-runner for the biggest value-to-ADP ratio, coming in as the 8th-most valuable shortstop after having a post-500 ADP.  After slashing .205/.266/.397 with a .284 wOBA in April, Crawford has slashed .289/.376/.640, with a .423 wOBA since, and a .524 wOBAcon (.508 xwOBAcon) that's up from a .352 wOBAcon (.402 xwOBAcon). And those aren't empty ratios either; he's hit 11 HR since May  1 (4 HR in April), with 26 R (10 R), and 34 RBI (10 RBI).

These changes haven't come out of nowhere, as Crawford's swing and plate approach has changed dramatically in 2021, working with the new trio of data-driven hitting coaches that the Giants have brought on. Crawford has opened his stance way up and quieted his hands, putting himself in a more powerful position.

This is one of those fantasy breakout seasons that is really only helpful if you actually have Crawford already. Because those that do, likely won't sell him for cheap and those that don't aren't going to be willing to give up a lot for a 34-year-old defensive wiz who's having a power boom. But it's still worth checking to see if you can use that narrative to acquire Crawford on the cheap, as I don't see the performance dipping soon.

Jorge Polanco, 2B/SS, MIN ($10.5, SS 15)

250 PA: 9 HR - 34 R - 30 RBI - 3 SB - .250/.316/.438

How do you go from a .555 OPS and .249 wOBA in April, to a .879 OPS and .374 wOBA since May 1? Well, hitting eight home runs in 37 games after hitting just one in 23 games, will certainly help.

Another shortstop that has gone into renaissance mode, Polanco has turned things around after a disastrous start to 2021, slashing .207/.268/.287, with just a 56 wRC+ in April and dropping further down the lineup. But his recent turnaround has also brought him back to the top, hitting leadoff on May 30 for the first time since early April. He's bounced around but since then, Polanco has batted leadoff in 10-of-15 games (and five out of is past six), batting fifth or sixth in the other five games. That's a far cry from when Polanco was struggling in April, mired at sixth and below.

Polanco is playing every day (which wasn't a given entering the season) and is now batting leadoff a majority of the time, returning fantasy value in four categories. He still has elite plate discipline, posting a 16.6% K% and 7.3% SwStr%, and is back to hitting for power as he did in 2019, and has been a top-15 shortstop even with the horrible start.

Bring me all of your boring compilers, so that I may concentrate my superstars at other positions. This is the way.

The Bad

Jazz Chisholm, 2B/SS, MIA ($11.3, SS 14)

180 PA: 8 HR - 24 R - 24 RBI - 9 SB - .278/.344/.481

The electric Miami rookie lit things up in April with a .393 wOBA and 156 wRC+, hitting four home runs and stealing seven bases. However, Chisholm has taken a precipitous fall since, slashing .278/.297/.361, with a .289 wOBA and 88 wRC+, hitting one home run and stealing two bases since May 1.

While Chisholm was never expected to be the 40 HR player that he was tracking as in April but the speed was supposed to stick around. However, if you want to steal, you have to get on first, first. But Chisholm's plate discipline woes are helping to keep that from happening, with his walk-rate dropping from an 11.3% BB% in April, to a 2.7% BB% since May 1, with his already terrible 31.3% K% rising to a 43.2% K%.

The home runs aren't the only thing dipping low with Chisholm's power, as he's dropped from a .261 ISO and .551 SLG, to a .161 ISO and .430 SLG. However, to be fair, it's awful tough to hit for power when you stop hitting the ball in the air. In April, Chisholm had a 37.8% GB%, 33.3% FB% (pop-ups not included), with an average launch angle of 13.7 degrees. In May, he rose to a 56.7% GB%, dropping to an 18.3% FB% and 5.6-degree average launch angle.

Chisholm is elevating the ball less, almost as if there was something limiting his ability to generate power. Hmm...I wonder what, oh what could be causing that? Well, there was that hamstring injury on April 27 that caused him to miss three weeks. But surely his big performance dip doesn't have anything to do with that, right? It's not like major leaguers ever come back before they're fully healthy, right?

I don't think that Chisholm is going to morph back into the power he flashed early but his five-category production is going to return a lot of value. I still worry about his whiffery but Chisholm makes for a great buy-low while he's cooled off. This may already be coming to an end, considering he has four two-hit games in his last eight games and has a .329 wOBA and 114 wRC+ in June.

Trevor Story, SS, COL ($6.0, SS 18)

226 PA: 5 HR - 27 R - 24 RBI - 9 SB - .243/.314/.396

So help me, if any of you's tell RotoBaller's Story-teller-in-chief, Nick Mariano, that I've been blaspheming against his sweet Trevor, I will smite you. Is that what you want? To be smotten? I didn't think so. But just to be safe, I'm going to write the rest of this in whisper-font.

Like the last remaining treasure at a terrible garage sale that only hasn't been sold because the owner stubbornly refuses to get rid of all of their nice things, even though they're moving and could really use the cash to help furnish their new digs, Trevor Story is still a Rockie. And he is languishing.

It's not just that he's returned the value of a backend MI, it's also that he would be so much worse he wasn't still this new version of Trevor Story who steals bases all willy-nilly. If not for his 9 SB, Story would be clocking in near replacement level, with his HR and RBI contributions actually hurting him more than his .243 AVG has.

Story has dropped from a .323 wOBA and .758 OPS in April to a .294 wOBA and .658 OPS since May 1. Those numbers aren't just cringe, they're "ok, if this was a normal player, he'd be in danger of losing playing time" levels of cringe. And don't look to his x-stats for salvation, as Story has posted a .297 xwOBA and .674 xOPS since the start of May. And looking at wOBA on contact, the drop has been even worse, putting up a .345 wOBAcon since May 1 that's backed by a .350 xwOBAcon. For context, Freddy Galvis and Niko Goodrum both have a .377 wOBAcon. Once again, we're talking about Trevor Story.

I don't like to put too much stock in narratives but I also remember that baseball players are human. I don't think Trevor Story skills are broken, just his spirit from remaining a Rockie while all of the other talent flies the coop. It's probably hard to hit with a crushed soul and I commend Story for playing through it. If you could guarantee me he's moved this summer, Story would be one of my favorite buy-low trade targets.

That's right; I think the depression brought on by being a Rockie outweighs the advantage of hitting in Coors. That's where we're at.

The Meh

Carlos Correa, SS, HOU ($19.0, SS 11)

271 PA: 11 HR - 44 R - 35 RBI - 0 SB - .288/.376/.492

If there was an all-time standard-bearer for who I think best embodies the "meh" of fantasy, it would be Carlos Correa, who currently is the SS 11 in 12-team leagues. Right about where the king of meh should be. Correa's .364 wOBA in April was good and his .380 wOBA since May 1 is better. However, they're backed by a .355 xwOBA (meh) since May 1, with a .410 wOBAcon (meh) and .373 xwOBAcon (bleh).

But Nicklaus, nothing looks out of whack with his line, in fact, doesn't it look impressive? Why is he only the 11th-best shortstop according to the FanGraphs auction calculator? Well, this is where calculating values, whether before or during the season, can better inform you as to how a player's complete line works together, both in how they work in relation to each other and how they compare to the rest of the positional pool.

Here's how Correa's 2021 line breaks down by category:

Now we can better see where Correa is pulling his value from, with the most water being carried by his 44 runs scored that are the third-most among shortstops. The Astros offense is obviously really good but are you willing to bet that his runs pace will continue while batting sixth and being followed by the likes of (with apologies to Kyle Tucker) Myles Straw and Martin Maldonaldo? Because I have my doubts.

While I don't have any such doubts about Correa's .288 AVG (.290 xBA), his 11 HR and 35 RBI just aren't that impressive relative to what other shortstops are doing, as evidenced from the lackluster values above. And finally, Correa shows us once again how limiting being a zero-SB player can be, particularly at a position that generally has speed.

It's not that Correa's bad or even that he's average. He's just not elite in terms of fantasy goodness but is still carrying the name cache of when he was an MVP candidate early in his career. Which is totally fine! Just as long as you adjust your expectations about what kind of value he's actually returning to you. Or better yet, trade him to someone who still thinks his current numbers make him a top-50 hitter.

Paul DeJong, SS, STL (-$7.7, SS 35)

156 PA: 8 HR - 19 R - 19 RBI - 2 SB - .168/.269/.365

Looking at the above, it's hard to find anything positive in what the Cardinals shortstop has done in 2021. But keep in mind that a lot of his negative value return is wrapped up in the month he just missed with a rib fracture because 8 HR, 19 R, 19 RBI, and 2 SB in 39 games tracks out to 33 HR, 79 R, 79 RBI, 8 SB.

Not that you should put a lot of stock into prorated numbers but his pace is worth noting, especially considering that DeJong is coming back to hit in a much-improved lineup that now has a fully functional Nolan Arenado along with the breakouts of Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson.  The real problem with DeJong is that his fantasy value is anchored by a .168 AVG.

Call me a sycophantic St. Louisan but I see that average going up and with it, his overall value. All you have to do to imagine a shiny DeJong (in terms of his value, not as a commentary on his disposition) is to put him with a .235 AVG - not much of a stretch considering his career numbers:

Barring a continuing wave of horrible luck, DeJong seems like he's a .230 - .235 AVG kind of guy. I expect him to go back to being that guy soon and the wOBA's have my back. DeJong's .288 wOBA since May 1 is basically unchanged from April but that's not the case with his .388 xwOBA, which in addition to being a 100-pt bump from wOBA, has also increased from a .325 xwOBA in April. And it's much the same story in regards to wOBA on contact, as his .314 wOBAcon in April was backed by a .394 xwOBAcon, and his .292 wOBAcon since May 1 has a .426 xwOBAcon behind it.

If I told you there was a shortstop available in over 50% of leagues who would hit 30+ HR, with 160 R+RBI, 5+ stolen bases, and a .230 AVG, is that something you might be interested in?  Because using the FanGraphs auction calculator (12-team leagues, standard roster with 1 MI, 1 CI, 5 OF, and 1 UT) with the 2021 ATC projections, DeJong and his projected 24 HR, 78 R, 78 RBI, 4 SB, and .235 AVG came in as the 15th-best shortstop prior to the season.

Spectacular? No, but that still makes him a solid MI starter in a year with massive injuries, so not too shabby. However, give him his current home run pace instead of what was projected and that top-15 value starts turning into top-10.

Once again, on the wire in over 50% of leagues.

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