6 Third-Year Fantasy Football Sleepers: Breakout Candidates to Target in Drafts (2025)

John Johnson's 6 third-year fantasy football sleepers and breakout candidates for 2025 drafts. His draft targets include Brenton Strange, Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, and more.

If a player hasn't broken out in his first two years in the league, it's usually not a great sign. This is truer for some positions than others, though -- for example, it's generally expected (and observed) that running backs tend to break out earlier in their careers than do tight ends and quarterbacks.

Still, a confluence of factors working against certain players can hold them back from reaching their full potential for numerous seasons. Injuries, being buried on depth charts, and terrible offensive coaching are a few of the reasons. Being on teams with terrible rosters doesn't help, either.

There are plenty of NFL players who break out in their third season, generally after one or more of these factors becomes more favorable for them at some point. And those are players we should try our best to evaluate. So let's do so below, with six players who are some of my favorite third-year breakout candidates for 2025!

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Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

There's a new TE1 in Jacksonville. Strange will step into the spot vacated by former Jags TE Evan Engram, who the team let go after the 2024 season. Strange's 2024 was interesting. He didn't perform astoundingly well, but it's hard to blame anyone on that putrid offense for having a poor season.

The Jaguars formerly had Press Taylor, a known football terrorist, as their offensive coordinator. That's not true any longer -- they got a massive upgrade when they hired Liam Coen, the former offensive coordinator for the incredibly explosive Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense in 2024 -- as their head coach for the 2025 season.

Watching @BrentonStrange highlights just to feel something 🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/yEJbsiL4sK

— SleeperJaguars (@SleeperJaguars) May 12, 2025

One might look to Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton, who played in Coen's offensive system last year, as a blueprint for Strange's potential production. But Otton has never been a difference-maker, and from my analysis so far, it seems that Strange is more talented.

I'm not sure I'd call Strange a top-10 TE yet, but in deeper leagues, and especially TE-premium leagues, he could be a solid starter. And if either of the team's top-2 receivers, Travis Hunter or Brian Thomas Jr., suffer an injury, Strange could become the de-facto WR2 for the Jags.

#Jaguars GM James Gladstone on Brenton Strange:

“Really excited about his ascension in Year Two, and I think he’ll have a part in the offense moving forward, in a way that we haven’t seen yet.” pic.twitter.com/1I7qHMt0vS

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 25, 2025

It's hard to anticipate exactly what Otton's role would have been if he had been more talented. And Strange has stiff competition in Hunter and Thomas. But a nice safety-valve role could be coming up for the 6-foot-4, 253-pound mismatch weapon.

Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints

Miller hasn't done much in his career to this point due to injuries and a weird circumstance in which former Saints head coach Dennis Allen put him on injured reserve when he didn't need to be. These have made it easy to forget that Miller is actually pretty talented.

I'm not a big fan of the rookie the team drafted, Devin Neal. He didn't perform nearly as well against quality competition, instead racking up huge numbers against smaller schools. He isn't a great athlete and wasn't particularly elusive or powerful. My analysis has led me to conclude Miller is simply better. If healthy, of course.

The best of Kendre Miller on Sunday. It’s insane Kubiak didn’t give him more touches pic.twitter.com/B5yhx04zLC

— kaj (@kadinjanisch) December 10, 2024

Let's say for the sake of reasoning that the Saints finally want to dial back on lead back Alvin Kamara's touches. That's reasonable, considering that New Orleans spent an early third-round pick to secure the back's services in the 2023 NFL Draft. Of course, they didn't anticipate him struggling so much to get onto the field.

Kamara will turn 30 in late July. Backs of his age with a lot of career touches tend to start wearing down as their bodies simply can't take the punishment anymore, and their athleticism suffers. It's best for him to have his workload dialed back. He has over 11,500 career touches.

OKAY ROOK 🫡

Kendre Miller takes the screen 31 yards

📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/ozdAHCzetq

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) November 5, 2023

The contingent upside is obviously a lot bigger. Miller will be an immediate waiver-wire target if Kamara gets hurt, and on an offense that has serious issues at the quarterback position, Saints head coach Kellen Moore could opt to run the ball as much as possible. And volume is everything for RBs.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Downs sort of had a breakout in 2024, though his final season stats wouldn't suggest so. There was a stretch of contests where Downs totaled 22.2, 15.9, 19.5, and 22.2 points in four of five consecutive weeks. The problem was that Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson ruined it by being awful.

Anthony Richardson was unrivaled for worst short accuracy from a clean pocket in the NFL in 2024 https://t.co/HK6sLFo14T pic.twitter.com/RD7cQBqbjI

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 19, 2025

Richardson is the worst quarterback in the league by a significant margin when throwing short passes from a clean pocket. Even when the offensive line isn't to blame for any pressure, Richardson would regularly airmail passes, missing badly, that were to targets just a few yards in front of the line of scrimmage.

His intermediate passing wasn't much better. These led to Downs, who excels on short and intermediate routes in creating quick separation from his defenders from the slot, to be wildly inconsistent down the stretch, as far too many of his targets were completely uncatchable.

AWFUL: Former #Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson stats and play at halftime…

• 2 of 15
• 13% completion percentage
• INTERCEPTION
• 44.0 passer rating

😳😳😳 pic.twitter.com/GEHLF1Lau9

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) October 27, 2024

If the Colts bench Richardson, and start QB Daniel Jones, he could lock on to Downs and deliver him catchable balls in short-yardage situations, which would greatly boost his value. In New York, WR Malik Nabers had a very nice stretch catching short and intermediate passes from Jones before the offensive line got banged up.

Jones' first season with a competent offensive line and a nice receiving weapon only lasted a few games, before left tackle Andrew Thomas picked up a season-ending injury. But Nabers performed well. And Jones can actually throw accurate short and intermediate passes. At least compared to A-Rich.

Kayshon Boutte, WR, New England Patriots

I personally don't think this one will happen. Boutte seemed to emerge somewhat as the Patriots' least awful receiving option last season and connected with quarterback Drake Maye on a few high-profile plays. The team drafted both Kyle Williams, a talented rookie, and signed WR Stefon Diggs (knee) to a large deal.

Boutte has contingent upside more than anything else. He was never put in a situation to succeed in his first two seasons, and if Williams or Diggs get hurt, he could slot into the WR2 role and put up decent numbers. This is especially true if the Patriots' offensive line moves help provide better pass-protection for Maye.

It's time we had a Kayshon Boutte conversation. 🗣️

He's torched Stingley and Sauce Gardener deep in the last three weeks. He's a legit WR in the league.

A full look at Kayshon *washing* Gardner on a high post & finishing the play with an A-tier catch in the turf. pic.twitter.com/u53BehyggX

— ZeeBee (@BellinoZee) October 30, 2024

Outside of deeper leagues, I highly doubt that Boutte will be relevant. But we do have to dig a bit deep here since third-year breakouts are a little less common. I'm a big believer in Maye's talent, and believe he could lead a productive passing offense. In the right scenarios, Boutte could be a deep sleeper in PPR leagues.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans

Titans head coach Brian Callahan stated several times before the 2024 season that he wanted Spears and starting RB Tony Pollard to share the workload relatively evenly. That didn't come to pass. While Spears suffered a hamstring injury that contributed to this, even early in the year, Spears' role in the offense was disappointing.

But Pollard spent the majority of the season battling through various foot and ankle injuries. While not all were listed on the injury report, he commonly had to miss practice, presumably to give his body more time to recover from his nagging ailments. Tennessee could be forced to use Spears more moving forward.

#Titans HC Brian Callahan on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears:

“I think in a perfect world, it’s a healthier division of labor… I like, really, both of those players a lot. I think we can do a better job of managing that load so they both play a little more evenly.”

Callahan has… pic.twitter.com/7zzyaXtxSw

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 20, 2025

Callahan has repeated his desire to make the split more even. It's worth wondering how truthful this is, but Spears has been pretty solid as a pass-catching back on paper. Spears is, like Boutte, more of a potential starter in deep PPR leagues. He's best with the ball in his hands in open space.

He scored 27.2, 21.6, and 13.3 PPR fantasy points in Weeks 15-17 of 2024. Though Spears' performance against the Colts was mostly in garbage time, this stretch at least may have indicated that the team was willing to get him more work on passing downs, which is important.

Tyjae Spears is an affordable BUY LOW with high upside in the Titans’ offense

Current RB42 in FFD ADP, going for a late 3rd round dynasty rookie pick

He’s shown flashes towards the end of the 2024 NFL season and now has an upgraded O-line

If he survives the draft, he should… pic.twitter.com/CNqAojTtqS

— The FF Dynasty (@TheFFdynasty) April 3, 2025

It's obviously possible that Callahan could be lying through his teeth, and still wants to use Pollard as a workhorse. That said, that'd increase the chances of Pollard getting hurt, in which case a Spears breakout would be much more likely.

Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

Mayer was a player I liked coming out of college. Being stuck on the 2023 Raiders, and then the team drafting elite TE Brock Bowers and Mayer dealing with personal issues and being in another terrible offense, wasn't the best start to his career, though.

Now, the Raiders got a massive upgrade at quarterback. They traded for former Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith, who's quietly resurrected his career, and was one of the best situation-adjusted QBs in the league last season.

College EPA + plays, notable TEs

EPA/play (2022)
Dalton Kincaid: 0.89
Brock Bowers: 0.85
Darnell Washington: 0.83
Michael Mayer: 0.79
Sam LaPorta: 0.68 pic.twitter.com/amFdQrdf6w

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) January 10, 2023

Mayer has a ton of untapped potential. He could obviously be fourth in the receiving pecking order, though. It's a long shot for him to get meaningful volume. But it could happen.

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