RADIO
Tommy Bell's 4 fantasy baseball cuts and drop candidates article looks under the hood for explanations on why these slumping hitters have underperformed in 2025. Ozzie Albies, Bryan Reynolds, Jasson Dominguez, Roman Anthony.
As the MLB season approaches the dog days of summer, statistics that began as small sample sizes are starting to become more reliable. As with every season, surprise players have burst onto the scene to become top contributors. Others, however, have fantasy managers pulling their hair out, wondering when that production they paid for on draft day will finally show up.
It's a pivotal time to evaluate struggling players to decide what the remainder of the season might have in store. The difference between correctly predicting a bounce-back and riding a poor performance for another three months can be massive in the fantasy baseball landscape.
Tommy Bell takes a deep dive on a select group of hitters who have struggled to meet expectations in 2025. Are these hitters worth a buy-low offer, or are there too many red flags to count on a bounce back in the second half of the season?
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Ozzie Albies, 2B - Atlanta Braves
Once viewed as an elite second base option in fantasy baseball, Albies has struggled to the tune of a .225 batting average through 77 games this season, collecting just six home runs, 34 runs, 27 RBI, and tacking on seven steals in the process.
While he's remained available for the Braves following his wrist injury in 2024 that forced him to miss more than a third of the season, his power numbers have dived for the second year in a row. Unfortunately, there are red flags beyond the surface, as the 28-year-old is hitting the ball hard just 23.5% of the time, down almost 6 percent from 2024. That's a far cry from his 36.6% hard contact rate in a 148-game 2023 season.
I think it might just be about over for Ozzie Albies. This is end-of-days stuff here for a player who was always a bit unconventional pic.twitter.com/epWXgv8m04
— Scott Coleman (@scottcoleman55) June 16, 2025
To make matters worse, Albies is dealing with some poor BABIP luck at the moment, which sits at a career-low .257. It's fair to assume that it will regress positively in the second half of 2025, but it would surprise no one to learn that a fly-ball hitter who is facing massive declines in hard hit and barrel rates is suddenly struggling to get on base.
The lone bright spot in the switch-hitter's numbers right now is that he is on pace to steal more bases than any of his last three seasons, and his walk rate is up slightly as well. But with the Braves' offense taking a step back this year, and Albies finding himself batting fifth, sixth, or seventh most nights, it's easy to see more disappointing run production in the second baseman's future.
It's not quite time for fantasy managers to cut Albies, but if any of your league mates still view him as a reliable power source, it might be worth exploring the trade market. Fifteen home runs feels like the ceiling for the man from Curacao in 2025, and managers would be lucky to see his average flirt with .255 by season's end.
Bryan Reynolds, OF - Pittsburgh Pirates
Much like Albies, Reynolds is on pace to log his worst season as a hitter in quite some time. The only other season in which B-Rey hit for less than a .260 average and less than 16 home runs was his COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, in which he only had 208 plate appearances. With 322 PAs thus far in 2025, the usually reliable Pirate is hitting just .229 with eight homers.
The 30-year-old seems to be seeing the ball fine, evidenced by his normal 9.0% walk rate, but an elevated 26.1% strikeout rate has been the main culprit for his inconsistency this year. Reynolds usually thrives in the BABIP department, but so far this season, he's hitting just .291 on balls in play.
The good news for the Vanderbilt product is that he's hitting the ball as hard as ever, boasting a 35.3% hard contact rate and a career-high 11.1% barrel rate. There are no major changes in his hitting tendencies, either, which are all signs that this rough first half could be a combination of too many strikeouts (perhaps related to a shoulder injury he played through to begin the year) and a lot of bad luck on balls in play.
I'm not worried about Bryan Reynolds in the slightest. Probably the most unlucky season I have seen from a Pirate in awhile.
AVG .229
xAVG .270OBP .301
xwOBA .360SLG .368
xSLG .498OPS .669
xOPS .858#LetsGoBucs— James Larson (@JamesLarson47) June 24, 2025
We may be witnessing the beginning of some much-needed positive regression already, as Reynolds has collected five hits over his last two games (Sunday and Monday). That's no surprise. With his extremely consistent history and the underlying numbers to back it up, this seems like a prime buy-low opportunity for a very good hitter.
You may not get more than 12-14 home runs the rest of the way, but something along the lines of a .300 average seems likely. One can only hope that the Pirates hitters around him help create some run and RBI production with those swings!
Jasson Dominguez, OF - New York Yankees
Our final two hitters in this column don't have the track record to provide much context for these "slumps," so we'll keep it short and sweet. Let's take a look at the hitting tendencies of two youngsters and try to decide if the second half of 2025 will continue to be a learning opportunity or if a big jump in production might be coming.
It's safe to say that Jasson Dominguez won't be much more than a .240 to .250 hitter until further notice, but what seems wild is that he's only homered in four of his 65 games played this year. Now, a handful of "games" have come as a pinch hitter, and his three-homer outing in Sacramento on May 10th speaks to his massive upside, but still, there's much more power here than a measly six homers nearing the end of June.
In his first full season in the majors, the 22-year-old has kept up his impressive hard contact rate, currently sitting at 42.5% to go along with his 8.9% barrel rate. And with 40.4% of those balls being hit in the air, it seems like Dominguez should be able to double his current HR/FB percentage (10.2%). The sample sizes are still relatively small, but if you squint, there are many positive signs in these trends.
Dominguez just needs one hot streak to prove to the Yankees that he deserves everyday at-bats. Once that happens, especially considering the hitter-friendly park he calls home and the improving weather conditions of summer, we can expect the round-trippers to come in bunches. If any league mates are silly enough to sell the switch hitter at a discount, I'd be knocking on the door to scoop him up and hope for a big power surge in July and August. The 25-steal pace won't hurt your team, either!
Roman Anthony, OF - Boston Red Sox
If you thought analyzing Dominguez should come with a grain of salt due to small sample sizes, may I introduce you to Roman Anthony? The lefty slugging phenom has only been up for a couple of weeks, and we're already labeling his production with a "slump" tag.
A 24.5% strikeout rate early on is just fine for a 21-year-old, especially considering his unique power profile and his lovely 18.4% walk rate. Add in a 37% hard-hit rate compared to just 11.1% soft contact rates on 40.7% fly balls, and you have yourself some positive underlying numbers.
Roman Anthony's metrics so far have been impressive.
16.7% BRL, 93.9 mph AVG EV, 45.8% HH
15% BB, 22.5% K
89.4% Z-Con, 79.4% Contact, 19% ChaseDon't worry about the surface stats.pic.twitter.com/xgJ8rLhdbu
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) June 22, 2025
Anthony's current issues seem to be too many ground balls that should be line drives, which is consistent with his minor league track record, and just plain bad luck, evidenced by a laughable .154 BABIP.
There are so many things to like about the former top prospect's situation, and while we can't guarantee he'll get it all figured out in the next three months, this seems like as good a time as any to try and buy him at a discount. And if you've waited this long for Anthony to be promoted, just sit back and trust the process, my friend.
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