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Well, Week 5 brought plenty of pain as the bye-week screws started to tighten. There isn't a "jackpot" add to throw everything at, but there are many low-rostered options in a position of opportunity now. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
The bye weeks have begun! We're missing the Packers and Steelers in Week 6, which doesn't hurt too badly. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 6.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Sam Howell (QB, WAS) - 34% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-3%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Sam Howell continues to get sacked too much but turned a disastrous 27-3 deficit against Chicago into a scrappy 388-yard performance. He completed 37-of-51 pass attempts with two TDs and an interception, with another 19 rushing yards on four carries.
Garbage time is accepted as payment around here. It doesn't have to be pretty and Howell has found himself near the top-12 QB conversation (fantasy-wise) in every week except one thus far.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) - 19% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Baker Mayfield comes out of Tampa’s early bye having just logged a three-touchdown win over the Saints. He’s also logged six or more rushes in three games already, posting a season-best 31 rushing yards in Week 4 as well. We hope Mayfield will have Mike Evans (hamstring) on the field against Detroit but it’s nice knowing Baker can chip in with his legs.
QB efficiency through Sunday Week 5 (EPA/play, min 80 dropbacks)
1) Brock Purdy 0.51
...
2) Josh Allen 0.31
3) Tua Tagovailoa 0.31
4) Patrick Mahomes 0.27
5) Baker Mayfield 0.19
6) Justin Herbert 0.18
7) Jordan Love 0.15
8) Jared Goff 0.15
9) Russell Wilson 0.13
10) C.J. Stroud…— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) October 9, 2023
(Purdy is that dude.)
Gardner Minshew (QB, IND) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Gardner Minshew relieved an injured Anthony Richardson in Week 5 after the rookie suffered an AC sprain to his shoulder. Minshew has looked sharp when needed, completing 11-of-14 pass attempts for 155 yards in a 23-16 victory over Tennessee.
Week 6 sees the Colts traveling to Jacksonville, who have let all opposing QBs score multiple TDs against them (outside of Desmond Ridder, but let’s be reasonable). I anticipate Indy prefers to control the game with Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss if possible, but the Jags just beat Buffalo and should press the action.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, MIA) - 26% rostered
FAAB Bid: 14-18%
Aggressive Bid: 18-25%
Desperation Bid: 25-40%
UPDATE: De'Vone Achane will miss multiple weeks on IR, which may demand a few extra FAAB nudges to secure JWJ's services.
Jeff Wilson Jr. is set to have his 21-day practice window activated this week ahead of Miami’s Week 6 game against Carolina’s soft run defense. The JWJ hype train was derailed by a preseason midsection injury but now his return may coincide with De'Von Achane’s injury woes.
The rookie’s timeline is unclear but grabbing any piece of the Dolphins’ historic offensive output is worthwhile.
Emari Demercado (RB, ARI) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 12-16%
Aggressive Bid: 16-25%
Desperation Bid: 25-40%
UPDATE: James Conner has been placed on IR. Upping the bid amounts. Arizona is less likely than others to add a veteran RB that would push Demercado since they aren't contending, but Ingram will eat in.
I'd be okay with 5-10% on Ingram, who is being listed as the RB1 on Arizona's depth chart. I'm not reading much into the procedure but I understand those who do. Ingram only gained 15 yards on 12 rushes this year before the neck injury and has a 1.9 YPC on 39 career carries.
James Conner suffered a vague knee injury and Keaontay Ingram has missed multiple games with a neck injury, which left Emari Demercado as Arizona’s rusher. He finished with a 10-45-1 rushing line and a 12-yard catch. HC Jonathan Gannon said Conner is “feeling okay” after a knee injury that may have occurred when a cleat got caught in the turf.
The 1-4 Cardinals shouldn’t push Conner, and Ingram likely wouldn’t slide into the primary RB role after missing extended time, if he can go at all. He did squeeze some limited practices in last week so don't ignore him. But we saw more out of Demercado in Week 5 than Ingram had shown in '23. Arizona claimed Tony Jones Jr. off of waivers from the Saints, but that's not a sizeable threat.
D'Onta Foreman (RB, CHI) - 7% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%
D'Onta Foreman was a healthy scratch in Week 5 but jumps onto the list with Khalil Herbert’s high-ankle sprain, Roschon Johnson’s concussion, and Travis Homer’s hamstring injury. Having played on Thursday, the Bears have a few extra days to recover, but Herbert will still miss multiple weeks.
While Johnson remains a preferred stash, Foreman is the next healthy man up and could benefit from Chicago remembering how to play football. Only eight running backs had five or more games with 100-plus rushing yards in 2022 and Foreman was part of the club. Opportunity could rear its head against a vulnerable Minnesota defense in Week 6.
If Johnson is available and you can tolerate the risk he misses Week 6 then I’d be comfortable firing between 25-50%.
Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN) - 26% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%
The Titans can’t lean on Ryan Tannehill but Tyjae Spears and Derrick Henry make a formidable pair in the backfield. This past week, Henry had 62 yards on 16 touches while Spears scored the TD alongside 69 yards (11 touches). It’s the first time he’s eclipsed 10 touches and got his first NFL score.
#Titans RBs yesterday in a game that was very close throughout:
Snaps: Derrick Henry 37, Tyjae Spears 32
Routes: Spears 20, Henry 14
Opportunities: Henry 16, Spears 12— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 9, 2023
His efficiency is heartwarming and there’s an outside chance Tennessee trades away Henry and other vets in a “reset.” Even if not, Henry’s odometer ticks higher by the game and Spears is making a massive case for additional involvement.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) - 32% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-18%
Desperation Bid: 18-25%
Chuba Hubbard once again outworked Miles Sanders in Week 5, but there isn’t much to go around for the rushers of the 0-5 Panthers. Sanders was off of the injury report so it’s hard to blame Hubbard’s 10 touches to Sanders’ seven on the groin. Per PFF, Hubbard had three goal-line carries to Sanders’ one, while also playing more in the two-minute drill.
Interestingly, Sanders played more on third downs, which had been Hubbard’s initial role in ‘23. With Carolina WRs healthy, having the preferred goal-line option could yield rewards down the stretch if Bryce Young and company can find a rhythm.
Panthers RB usage, Week 5 (per PFF):
Chuba Hubbard
34-of-71 snaps
17 routes run
9 rushing attempts
3 short-yardage snapsMiles Sanders
33-of-71 snaps
22 routes run
7 rushing attempts
1 short-yardage snap— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) October 9, 2023
Justice Hill (RB, BAL) - 28% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-25%
Justice Hill looked back to 100% on Sunday, rushing seven times for 32 yards and a TD with four catches for another 19 yards. The Ravens had a tough time moving against Pittsburgh’s defense so Hill’s versatility proved more valuable than Gus Edwards’ between-the-tackles force. Baltimore takes on a tough Tennessee front seven next, which should favor Hill again.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
K.J. Osborn (WR, MIN) - 9% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-25%
Desperation Bid (Lost JJ): 25-40%
UPDATE: Justin Jefferson has been placed on IR, so I'm bumping the ranges up. I wonder if any trade calls for ol' Kirko are coming this week.
K.J. Osborn jumps into the spotlight with Justin Jefferson dealing with a hamstring injury. We’d all love to have Jordan Addison but Osborn still saw an identical nine targets with the rookie, while Brandon Powell stepped into the No. 3 role with six looks.
The Vikings travel to Chicago to take on a Bears team that may suddenly put up a fight. While that outlook is promising for a one-week stopgap, Osborn and the Vikes then have to face the 49ers in Week 7. Bid accordingly! Hopefully, we’ll have an idea of JJ’s recovery timeline before FAAB locks.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC) - 39% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-16%
Desperation Bid: 16-25%
Rashee Rice only played on 20-of-66 Kansas City snaps, running routes on 10 of them, so what’s the hubbub? Well, the rookie saw five targets, including a red-zone look that he brought in for his second TD of the season.
The ramp-up workload is evident but seeing a target on half of his routes run is promising. Justyn Ross saw four targets on just six routes run, for you hopefuls out there. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had one target on 29 routes, while Skyy Moore only had a pair of looks on 23 routes. I won’t pretend to know exactly what KC was scheming, but Rice looks great while MVS and Moore do not. Follow the trends!
#Chiefs OC Matt Nagy on Rashee Rice earning more snaps: "I absolutely think he is. I think it's a growth process for him. . . this process does take time. . . he's started to understand the different levels in zone coverage. . . we're seeing someone slowly gaining confidence in…
— Charles Goldman (@goldmctNFL) October 9, 2023
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) - 33% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-14%
Desperation Bid: 14-20%
Quentin Johnston’s sparse involvement in Week 4, even following Mike Williams’ season-ending injury, combined with LAC’s Week 5 bye has left him on many wires. But this is a first-round wideout in a Justin Herbert-led offense that just got a week off to map out an approach sans Williams.
It was encouraging to see him on the field for just over half of LAC’s snaps in Week 4, even if his box score was quiet. The draft position, opportunity, and LAC’s overall offensive potency are reason enough to stash him for a couple of weeks.
Josh Downs (WR, IND) - 9% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-16%
Josh Downs led Indy receivers with six catches for 97 yards on a day where Zack Moss carried the mail with nearly 200 total yards. Jonathan Taylor’s return and Moss’ early-season form may yield a run-heavy approach, but Gardner Minshew under center should help even out the passing volume.
The Colts don’t have an easy schedule on the horizon (JAX, CLE, NO, CAR, NE) but it’s clear that Downs is the No. 2 receiving option. His 23 catches nearly triple Alec Pierce’s tally thus far and match the TE rotation’s mark through five weeks. Downs doesn’t have a touchdown yet but few options under 10% rostered can boast a 100-target pace.
Colts target shares with Gardner Minshew at QB:
30% Michael Pittman
25% Josh Downs 👀
13% Alec Pierce— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 9, 2023
Curtis Samuel (WR, WAS) - 17% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
If Washington’s offensive line insists on allowing a historic pace of pressure to reach Sam Howell then Curtis Samuel’s safety blanket should be a PPR friend. A week after being given eight touches for 52 yards and a score, Samuel caught 6-of-7 targets for 65 yards and another tuddy. Looks like the quad injury was no problem at all!
If the Commanders continue to let up points (33 or more in four straight!) and no one emerges as a true target alpha, then buying all their starters checks out. They’ll face Atlanta in a dome setting next week and have a very late bye (Week 14).
D.J. Chark Jr. (WR, CAR) - 12% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
He’s not a set-it-and-forget type like Adam Thielen, but D.J. Chark Jr. played all 70 offensive snaps and led the team with 43 routes run, per PFF. His six targets trailed Thielen’s 13 and Jonathan Mingo’s seven, but Chark did bring in his second touchdown over the last three games. The floor is low with Bryce Young, but a Week 6 tilt at Miami should call for tons of passing in a negative gamescript. Flex seekers could do worse!
Robert Woods (WR, HOU) - 18% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Tank Dell suffered a concussion before halftime and did not return, which left Robert Woods and John Metchie III in elevated roles. Woods missed some time in the third quarter with a rib injury but was in on nearly every play in the fourth.
The vet is shown with nine targets on Yahoo and seven via PFF, though the 3-30-0 receiving line will suppress any attention. The Texans face a tough Saints defense in Week 6 before their bye, but Woods (and Metchie to an extent) is a fine flex grab in PPR formats assuming Dell cannot clear within a week.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS) - 15% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Logan Thomas led the Commanders by bringing in 9-of-11 targets for 77 yards and scoring in their 40-20 loss to Chicago. Washington has spread the ball around its pass-catchers but Eric Bieniemy’s offenses love to involve the tight end. Despite missing Week 3 and leaving Week 2 early due to a concussion, Thomas’ 25 targets are close to Terry McLaurin’s team-leading 31. Stay involved, keep pushing!
Logan Thomas continues to defy the odds.
"Bust" QB, clawed his way back as a TE, & eventually broke out with a 110-target season & Top-5 fantasy finish at Age 29.
Now averaging 11.6 PPG, (TE6 through WK5; 7.3+ fantasy points in every game), post-ACL recovery, at Age 32.
Bravo.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) October 9, 2023
Jonnu Smith (TE, ATL) - 16% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
While Kyle Pitts had an encouraging day and led Atlanta with 10 targets, Jonnu Smith’s involvement remained heavy. According to PFF, Smith still outsnapped Pitts 49 to 40 and ran 26 routes to Pitts’ 25.
Both were more involved than any wide receivers not named Drake London, which hints at the heavier packages that Atlanta rolls with. Smith has now seen at least six targets in four consecutive games going into a Week 6 showdown with the Commanders.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC) - 25% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%
While Donald Parham Jr. reportedly avoided a wrist fracture in Week 4, his Week 6 status is still in doubt due to the sprain. Gerald Everett would enjoy a more concentrated target share without Parham, but the Chargers should come out of their bye with a better scheme following the loss of Mike Williams.
Whether this funnels more to the TE or if Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston can absorb more work remains to be seen. Austin Ekeler’s presumed return should take some stress off of the matter.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Las Vegas Raiders Defense (vs. NE) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-7%
The Raiders' defense is far from intimidating in 2023, logging just nine sacks and three turnovers in five games, but this isn’t about them. Vegas has the pleasure of hosting a broken Patriots team that has three points in its last two games. I’m sure Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo would happily add to their misery.
New England may make a change to Bailey Zappe here, but the problem runs far deeper than quarterback. NE’s O-line is in shambles and they lack playmakers to overcome the pressure. With four sacks, six turnovers, and three defensive TDs surrendered in their last two contests, NE is a constant target for DST streamers.
Atlanta Falcons Defense (vs. WAS) - 9% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
Atlanta’s defense hasn’t given up many points (averaging 18 PPG against) but also fails to apply pressure/generate sacks and turnovers. That trend will be tested against a Washington offensive line that has allowed 29 sacks of Sam Howell over five games. The Bears defense had looked soft in the early going and contributed five of those sacks last Thursday.
Los Angeles Rams Defense (vs. ARI) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
The Rams only have eight sacks and three turnovers in five games, but Arizona just collapsed against Cincinnati. We’re hunting negative gamescripts that’ll force opponents into risk-taking scenarios. With Cooper Kupp back in the fold, I expect the Rams to easily control this game and sportsbooks have them as early 4.5-point favorites.
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