2021 First Look Fantasy Values: Third Base

November 10, 2020

Nicklaus Gaut uses the first Steamer projections for the 2021 season to project early fantasy values, comparing them to early ADP, covering third basemen in part four.

The baseball offseason may officially begin with the end of the World Series but the projections offseason began last Thursday night with the release of the first Steamer projections for 2021. Created and maintained by mathematics teacher Jared Cross and his former students, Steamer remains the industry standard for non-aggregated projection systems, as well as forming the basis for many popular projection systems like RazzBall and Depth Charts.

Projections systems aren't perfect. If they were, we'd all be like Biff in Back to the Future II. Every year, different systems perform differently; some do better with hitters, some with pitchers, and not just overall but within each category. Projections may not be perfect predictions (although, this guy...) but they can provide reasonable starting points, with Steamer consistently providing some of the best.

After handling first base, second base, shortstop, and the outfield, it's back to the infield for the hot corner. Or is it a lukewarm corner? Strolling down their ADP, third base features Jose Ramirez (awesome), Manny Machado (awesome but occasionally bats .250) and then a whole mess of players who severely disappointed fantasy managers across the world in 2019. What say you, Steamer?

Methodology

*If you've already read part one on 1B and 2B, part two on SS, or part three on OF, thank you! Please skip ahead to p. 349 (Third Base) to avoid rereading.

As mentioned, I converted  Steamer projections into fantasy dollars using a basic z-score method. As a refresher, z-scores is a popular statistical method for converting the totality of a player's scored categories, into a single number, by putting home runs, stolen bases, etc,  on a level playing field for comparison's sake. This is done by going category by category, calculating how each player's total compares to the rest of the league. Hitting 50 home runs may sound like a lot but not if everyone in the league hit at least 45 HR.

To calculate a z-score, you take the player's stat, subtract the average of the player pool, and then divide by the standard deviation of the player pool. For example, Steamer projects Freddie Freeman to hit 33 home runs, with the average of the player pool being 16.7 HR, with a standard deviation of 10.0.

(33 - 16.7)/10 = 1.6 z

A 0.0 z-score is equal to the league average, so Freeman's 1.6 z-score is saying that his 33 home runs are 1.6 standard deviations above the league average. This method is then applied to each category (although differently for ratio stats) and each z-score is then added together. This total z-score is divided by the total z-scores in the player pool greater than zero and converted to dollars by dividing it by the total amount of fantasy dollars you have allocated for hitters or pitchers, according to your chosen split.

Z-scores arent't the only valuation system and I'm not saying it's the best but it is reliable and widely used, much like Steamer. We're not trying to set these valuations and projections in stone, we just want to use them as an early and reliable touchstone as we dive into draft season. So, disagree! Whether in regards to playing time or talent rates, I'll be disagreeing plenty. But at least we'll be starting from a point of reasonableness.

Player Pool Caveats

When calculating z-scores, the player pool used is of major importance, with the pool getting watered down the bigger it gets. If you add 100 players who average 2 HR to a pool where the averages is 17 HR, the overall average is obviously going drop. For this exercise, I used a 150 PA minium and a 12-team standard 5x5 roto league.

Feel free to quibble with the number; you should. I myself use a much more targeted player pool when making my own valuations, curated specifically for fantasy purposes. Pablo Sandoval is projected to hit seven home runs in 153 plate-appearances but do I really want him in my pool of players to be evaluated considering he has a massive negative fantasy value and won't be rostered?

But once again, I'm going for more of a neutral look in these valuations, so the player pool is set at a flat 150 PA, a total of 377 players. Just so you see how much player pool size can change valuations, moving to a 250 PA min leaves you with 305 batters (and the pool only loses eight players that were drafted in the top-430 of the 2 Early mock drafts). Ronald Acuna's top value jumps from $47 to $63; player pool matters.

The last caveat is about catchers, whom I treat as their own separate entity from the general player pool. We can get more into this later but the values for the other positions going to be done without the dumpster fire of catching stats dragging everything down. This has a similar effect as limiting the pool by plate-appearances. For reference, Acuna's value with catchers in the pool is about two dollars lower than without.

Finally, a note about disagreeing and how to adjust. Projections are essentially made up of two building blocks. The playing time components (PA, IP) and the talent-rates, which is each projected stat divided by your chosen denominator (HR/PA, K/batter faced, etc). So keep in mind you might be disagreeing with the overall value because of one or the other, not necessarily both, parts of the projection.

For example, Andres Gimenez is projected to be a below-replacement player but that's much more about his playing time than his projected talent. If he were to get 600 PA instead of his currently projected 421 PA, his line would be, 14 HR - 65 R - 64 RBI - 33 SB - .247 AVG, and his fantasy value would jump to $11.9, coming in as the #13 shortstop, just ahead of Marcus Semien.

Third Base

The rumors of Jose Ramirez's demise were greatly exaggerated. After a down 2019 that saw him slash just .255/.327/.479, with 23 home runs and 24 stolen bases, Ramirez got back on top of fantasy mountain in 2020, finishing not just first at his position but as a top-five overall hitter. Ramirez hit 17 home runs, with 10 stolen bases in 254 PA, with a .292 AVG, putting the 28-year-old's fantasy production right back up with the high watermarks of 2017-18.

It's not the talent of Ramirez that worries me. It's not knowing what and who he'll be surrounded with in 2021 Here is who Cleveland has currently under contract for 2021 (along with their 2020 wOBA and wRC+) and where they're penciled in to play, according to Roster Resource:

That is pretty putrid, as is, but just imagine it once Francisco Lindor has been traded. Given Cleveland's supposed financial restrictions, they likely won't be making any splashes in free agency and that is going to leave Ramirez on an island where pitchers only have to worry about him and Franmil Reyes. Lonely island, indeed.

The thing about Manny Machado, is that sometimes he bats .250 every other year and then the world declares him done-zo. This is exactly what happened after he posted a .256 AVG in his first year with the Padres in 2019, dropping all the way to a 59 ADP headed into 2020 after he was in the top-20 the year prior. But we've come around the bend again and Machado once again has a 19 ADP after earning like a top-10 hitter in 2020, slashing .304/.370/.580, with 16 HR and 6 SB. I'd feel much more comfortable using a third-round pick instead of a second on him but I'd still be willing to pay because much like first base, third base is feeling sneaky weak-sauce.

It's not that 2020 was a completely lost season for Rafael Devers. He finished as a top-50 hitter on the Razzball player rater, which would've been fine if he hadn't been drafted in the top-20 following his 2019 breakout. But Devers wasn't ready for fantasy prime-time and was ultimately out-earned by Kyle Seager. Yes, Kyle.

It looks like the 17% K% of 2019 was a mirage, as Devers posted a 27% K% that was more in line with the 24% rates he posted in 2017-18, along with a 16.1% SwStr% that was a four-point increase from his 12-13% rates in 2017-19. And besides whiffing more, with his zone-contact rate dropping from 79.9% to 72.9%, Devers saw a big dip in his performance against fastballs.

It's not like we haven't seen this performance before:

In 2019, Devers was very good against fastballs and had a career-low strikeout-rate (even though his swinging-strike rate didn't really support a real talent change). Then in 2020, he went back to hitting fastballs like he had prior to 2019 but with a much bigger whiff-rate. Do you know what quality I don't really want in one of my top-40 draft picks? Issues hitting fastballs.

I guess $245 million just doesn't buy what it used to. The Los Angeles Angels were probably fine with Anthony Rendon's production, even if it wasn't to the heights of his 2019 season, as he slashed .286/.418/.497 over 232 PA, with a .395 wOBA and a 156 wRC+. But fantasy owners were probably hoping for something more than earnings that put him somewhere between Maikel Franco and Jeimer Candelario.

It's not that Rendon was bad, he just wasn't the silver-slugging masher that he was in 2019. His .389 wOBA was still in the top-8% of baseball, with a .375 xwOBA that was in the top-7%. He still rakes all day, every day (and still hits behind baseball's best player) but it may be prudent to assume that Rendon's power output in 2021 will be closer to the 20-25 HR range he's usually in, rather than the 34 HR outburst from 2019:

I wrote about Yoan Moncada more in-depth in this recent piece about shifting in 2020 but let's just say I'm not exactly enamored with his current 80 ADP. More shifts seem to be coming his way in 2021 and call me crazy, but it doesn't seem like the 2019 version is the truest version of Moncada.

Three out of four years agree; don't draft Yoan Moncada in the top-80:

It took a while but we finally have our first big Steamer bargain at third base, as young Alec Bohm is projected to be the 50th-best hitter but being drafted as the 74th hitter  in the 2 Early mocks. Bohm went boom in his rookie season, with Philadelphia's number-one hitting prospect slashing .338/.400/.481 with a .375 wOBA and 138 wRC+.

He only hit four home runs in his 180 PA but certainly didn't seem overwhelmed by major league pitching - even though he'd only had 270 PA at Double-A in 2019:

Counting on someone with so little major league experience is always dicey but Bohm has the pedigree and initial results to perhaps justify it. Especially considering the company he's keeping at the position outside of the top-100.

Welcome to the Matt Chapman Conundrum Hour! Chapman was essentially a replacement-level player in 2020, finishing with 10 HR, 22 R, and 25 RBI, slashing .232/.276/.535 over 152 PA. Bu-uuut, his season ended prematurely after September hip surgery to repair a torn labrum and manager Bob Melvin revealed the injury had bothered Chapman for a while.

But hips don't lie and Chapman's hip didn't stop him from continuing to blister the ball in 2020, posting a 51.7% hard-hit rate that was up from 49% in 2019, with increases across the board in his exit velocities, as well as an 18% Brl% that was up six-points and in the top-2% of baseball:

Unfortunately, all of that increased heat came with way more whiffs, as Chapman finished with a 35.5% K% after a 21.9% K% in 2019 and 23.7% K% in 2018. He chased more in 2020 but only slightly (22.7% to 25%) with the big increase in whiffs coming in the zone, with Chapman seeing a nine-point decrease in his zone-contact%.

Even with the strikeout issues, I'm definitely down with Chapman's current ADP. I'm just not going to count on much more than a .250 AVG. Because besides the shaky batting average, Chapman was barreling and hitting the ball harder than he ever has before. This makes him much preferable to me than his peers in the same drafting range like Yoan Moncada, Eugenio Suarez, and Kris Bryant.

Speaking of blistering the ball, since when did Ke' Bryan Hayes start crushing lasers as he did following his callup to the big club? Hayes has a top-prospect pedigree but that has always rested on the back of his glove; the offense was supposed to lag far behind. Instead, Hayes slashed .376/.442/.682 in 95 PA, posting a .464 wOBA and hitting five home runs in his first run in the majors.

Just as impressive were the aforementioned lasers, with Hayes putting up a ridiculous 55.4% hard-hit rate. For comparison, here is the company that Hayes would've kept had he qualified:

Not too shabby. I'm not ready to declare that Hayes is suddenly an elite hitter but it might be time to put to bed the idea that he is a glove-only player. At a thin position, his post-200 ADP holds a lot of potential profit.

The bringer of rain brought mostly sprinkles in his first season in Minnesota, as Josh Donaldson managed only 102 PA and six home runs, with a .222 AVG. Chalk his struggles up injuries if you want but Donaldson's peaks keep getting lower and lower:

Donaldson has only played one complete season in the past four years, his production keeps dipping, wuile his age and injuries keep piling up. Even a top-150 draft price feels too risky, with current forecasts pegging him as a slow-moving system that will likely break up before doing any real damage.

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