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Shelby Miller is Likely to Bounce Back in 2015
One of the biggest shocks of the offseason was when the Atlanta Braves shipped Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the St. Louis Cardinals for Shelby Miller and a prospect. Miller is entering his third full season in The Show at age 24. He is 26-18 with a 3.33 ERA in his young career.
After an outstanding rookie campaign in 2013, the 2014 season brought high expectations. Unfortunately, Miller's performance declined. He finished 10-9 compared to 15-9 in 2013. He posted a 3.74 ERA - up from a 3.06 ERA in 2013. He also had fewer strikeouts. Fantasy owners will look down on his production in 2014 so he should be a solid sleeper candidate for 2015.
In 2013 he disposed of 169 batters compared to only 127 in 2014. Miller struggled with control issues in 2014 which lead to an increase in walks. Miller has leaned on his fastball, particularly high in the zone, but in 2014 he emphasized his curve when ahead in the count. The pitch that hurt him the most was his change-up. Miller lost all control of his change, throwing 50% of them for balls in 2014. It was also the pitch he gave up the most HR on last season.
He missed an opportunity using his cutter. He got hitters to swing and miss over 11% of the time yet only 4% of his pitches were cutters. I think he has to get control of his change-up and use his cutter more. Atlanta's pitching coach Roger McDowell has proven he can get the best out of healthy young pitchers. There is no indication Miller can't rebound in 2015.
What To Expect in 2015
There are some positives to take away from 2014. Miller is a workhorse. He started 31 games in 2013. He did the same in 2014 while pitching 10 more innings ending at 183. Even though his control was an issue he managed to raise his GB% and lowered his HR/FB rate. it was not a huge improvement but still a positive to take away from a down year. I do not see why that trend can not continue.
Turner Field favors pitchers a bit more than hitters, and he now owns a garbage disposal in Andrelton Simmons at short. He is projected as the Braves third starter behind Julio Teheran and Alex Wood, and will be followed by another rebound candidate in Mike Minor. Minor is the oldest in the rotation at 27. This should breed some useful competition between him and Miller.
One of the things that scares me about Miller is the summer months at The Ted. In his career, June through August have been tough for the young righty. He is 9-11 with a 4.12 ERA during the middle of the summer. Those months happen to be very hot and humid in Atlanta, and one can only hope he adjusts well.
The other thing that scares me is the Atlanta Braves lack of offense. They replaced Heyward with Nick Markakis who is projected to leadoff. They shipped Justin Upton to the San Diego Padres. They still have his struggling brother B.J. Upton. Freddie Freeman is by far the best hitter, but there is little protection around him.
On the other hand, the Braves had one of the worst offenses last year. Can it really get much worse? Atlanta is going to be in some close low scoring games which can lead to a lot of decisions for a pitcher. If Miller can regain some control, he can take advantage of the Braves good bullpen and pull out some wins.
In Summary
I think Miller is going to go a bit unnoticed in fantasy baseball drafts this year. The Atlanta Braves seem to be in rebuilding mode which will scare some owners. You should be able to draft Miller late. The Braves have a good reputation of getting the best out of young pitchers, and I do not see any reason Miller will be different.
I am going to project Miller with 33 starts going 13-10 with a 3.40 ERA and 174 Ks which would be a career high for him. Miller is going to be at the back of your fantasy pitching staff, but he'll still be valuable. The change of scenery could benefit him. He is also going to be pitching in some pitcher friendly parks in his new division.
Taking Miller late is medium risk, high reward move. Best case scenario: he progresses and you have drafted a solid sleeper. Worst case: you drop him and pick up another starter. No harm, no foul in my opinion. I would take him in hopes he turns into a top sleeper for 2015.
