RADIO
Antonio Losada evaluates wide receivers and tight ends from Week 4 of the XFL and brings you the risers and fallers in targets from the first four weeks of the season to the present to determine their fantasy football value.
We're past the breaking point. With four weeks already completed, I'm 100% sure the XFL is here to stay and the season is now a lock to be finished and the league will proclaim a champion when all is ultimately said and done. Congratulations to all of you reading this that like me believed in this experiment. It worked and we're here witnessing it!
With those four weeks already in the books and plenty of numbers stored from players showcasing their talent all around the country, it makes sense to crunch some of the data we have at hand to see how things have developed during the games each team has already played before we reach the mid-season point next weekend.
In this column, I'll be taking a look at some risers and fallers in the receiving stats department, more precisely at how different players fared in terms of targets from Week 4 to the previous ones (averaging the stats from those) to see how different teams are using their assets, and what those players are making of their chances. Let's get to it!
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Week 1-4 Targets: Overall View
With more than a third of the season already completed, there have been 230 receiver-games logged so far in this modern-day XFL iteration. That means plenty of data is there available to tackle, which we love around this place!
All in all, wide receivers and tight ends (remember, we're not covering running backs in this column) have combined for 820 targets (3.56 per player/game) on the season so far, which have gone for a massive total of 5,812 yards (7.1 per target) and a respectable 41 touchdowns (more than 2.5 per game).
Here is how those targets have been shared among players in Week 4 (vertical axis) and Weeks 1 through 3 (horizontal axis; calculated), with the color diverging from green (more targets in Week 4) to red (higher number of targets on the prior weeks on average).
click image for full-screen view
Only five receivers logged 10 or more targets this weekend, two of them (Kahlil Lewis and Nick Holley) playing for the Houston Roughnecks and its powerful attack. That was nothing new in the case of Lewis as he's averaging 7 targets per game already, but Holley's bump up was considerable as he was at just 2.6 per game prior to this weekend.
Now, let's take a look at the real risers and fallers from the prior weeks to Week 4.
Week 1-4 Targets: Risers and Fallers
I have calculated the difference in targets from Week 4 to Weeks 1-3 (positive numbers favor Week 4), and here is how things looked after this last weekend's slate of games was over. I have removed players with no change in targets (zero deltaTGT) and also those with fewer than a two-target difference, either positive or negative.
As mentioned above, the clear winners of the week were the Houston pair of Holley and Lewis, both reaching 10+ targets. Only Tre McBride was close to that seizable jump in usage while on the negative side of things it was Cam Phillips who suffered the most. Makes all of the sense, as he was overly-covered all game long leaving other Roughnecks (Holley and Lewis) open to see more ball come their way. Spruce lost targets due to him missing the game, so no big deal there.
Target Risers
Kahlil Lewis (+6, from 7 targets to 13) and Nick Holley, HOU (+7.3, from 2.7 targets to 10)
Looking at the charts above, you should find all of the information you need to understand the boosted usage of both Lewis and Holley. Cam Phillips was completely shut down this past weekend so Houston was forced to look for other options on the passing game, and both Lewis and Holley were the ones to step up.
Kahlil Lewis was the No. 2 option for the Roughnecks through the first three weeks of the season and after getting his 13 targets this weekend he overtook Phillips in that category. He couldn't do much with them, though, as he only caught six passes for 53 yards and no scores. Nick Holley was much better and efficient, catching six of his 10 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown that made the difference in the 27-20 win of Houston over Dallas. It's hard to believe Phillips will be kept out of games on a weekly basis if Houston's other receivers are able to put up numbers, so don't fade Cam Phillips nor overvalue Lewis/Holley going forward.
Tre McBride, LA (+6, from 6 targets to 12)
Nothing really different from what happened in Houston occurred in LA. With Nelson Spruce out (for good, not just shut down by the opposing defense) this weekend, it was Tre McBride who went to eat for the Wildcats on offense. And oh boy did he excel at it. McBride season hadn't been that great leading up to this game--basically, because he had just played another game of the three he could have been in--but in just one single outing the receiver went all-in to finish with eight receptions (12 targets) for 127 yards and a score.
Great news both for McBride and Los Angeles, as it doesn't look like the Wildcats will need to rely on Spruce as their only surefire receiver for the remainder of the season (whenever he's back) if Tre can keep his game up.
Target Fallers
Cam Phillips, HOU (-6.7, from 9.7 targets to 3)
It took the league four weeks to adjust, but here we are. Finally, an XFL team realized how good Cam had been during his short stint in the league and opted to shut him down this past weekend. It didn't yield Dallas a win, but the strategy surely worked in preventing damage from Phillips. After getting targeted 9+ times in the first three games and scoring seven touchdowns combined in those matches, Phillips only saw three targets and caught one for a paltry nine yards on the day.
It is not that Phillips has lost his touch, ability, or whatever. This happens when you have a defense focusing solely on you. The problem for Phillips, though, rests on the idea of this becoming the norm in future games and him finding trouble getting open for targets. Keep an eye on how Houston--and even more their rivals--tackle this quiz.
Jalen Tolliver, TB (-4, from 8 targets to 4)
Dan Williams became the only Viper to log more than six targets this past weekend, getting the bulk of the offensive load in what turned out to be a run-heavy gameplan for Tampa against a horrific DC Defenders squad. That performance has put Williams over Tolliver in the overall targets leaderboard of the team with 31 over Tolliver's 28. No wonder, considering Tolliver would only see four this past weekend after logging an average of eight during the first three games of the season.
Tolliver's efficiency can't be doubted. He caught the four passes he was thrown and finished with 45 yards and no scores. That is nothing to be too proud of, though, as teammates Reece Horn caught five of six targets and DeAndre Goolsby finished three-for-three scoring a TD. Tolliver should stay at the top of the pecking order in passing situations, but we'll see how this evolves given Williams' last performance.
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