Wide Receiver Breakouts for Fantasy Football: Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, Drake London

Phil analyzes fantasy football wide receiver risers and fallers, looking at last week's targets and receptions to find Week 16 (2022) buy-lows or sell-highs.

You are already aware that wide receivers will play a critical role in the success of your teams. The undeniable volatility that exists with the running back position has also presented an increasing rationale for prioritizing wide receivers when you build your rosters – both at the onset of your drafts and as you manage your teams throughout the regular season. The numbers that are generated by all wide receivers provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the position, which I will be constructing for the fifth consecutive season.

This will be the 15th installment that will examine game-specific data, including updated totals for targets, air yards, targets per route run, yards per route run, red-zone targets, and snap counts. The information that is contained in this weekly report will analyze how various receivers are being utilized, and how effectively they are capitalizing on their opportunities.

All noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation as we progress through the fantasy postseason. That will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters. Statistics from our player pages at RotoBaller were included during the compilation of data, while Pro Football Reference, NextGenStats, Rotowire, Rotoviz, PFF, and Football Outsiders were also used as resources in the creation of this report.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings (redraft)
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Week 15 Target Leaders

Justin Jefferson runs FILTHY routes 😲 #SKOL

(@JJettas2) pic.twitter.com/71Zzk5E8Zp

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) December 20, 2022

Justin Jefferson has now stockpiled 158 targets after collecting 11+ in six of his last seven matchups. He has also attained 13+ during four of his last seven contests while accumulating 87 (12.4 per game) during that span. Tyreek Hill has now collected 152 targets, after capturing 10+ for the ninth time this season in Week 15. Hill has also attained double-digit target totals in three consecutive matchups.

Davante Adams has been targeted 151 times even though he has averaged 8.0 per game since Week 14. Adams had previously averaged a league-best 13.4 per game from Weeks 9-13 while stockpiling 67 during that span. Stefon Diggs has collected 142 targets including 9+ in 10 different matchups. He has averaged 9.8 per game since Week 10 while attaining a 29.1% share during those contests.

CeeDee Lamb has accrued 124 targets while averaging 8.9 per game. However, he has failed to exceed seven targets during six of his last eight games. Diontae Johnson had failed to reach double digits during four consecutive outings from Weeks 8-11 but has now accomplished it during two of his last three matchups. That has propelled his overall total to 123.

Michael Pittman Jr. has now captured 121 targets after collecting 14 when the Colts traveled to Minnesota in Week 15. It was his fourth double-digit target total of the season and his second in three weeks. D.K. Metcalf has now collected 119 targets after accumulating 51 (10.2 per game) during his last five games. He has also eclipsed 9+ in seven of his matchups throughout the season.

That ties Metcalf with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who captured 10+ targets for the seventh time this season. St. Brown has also collected 9+ in six of his last seven games.

68 big ones#PHIvsCHI | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/N2YUdm6fFm

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 18, 2022

A.J. Brown has now been targeted 118 times entering Week 16 after he secured a season-high 16 when Philadelphia traveled to Chicago in Week 15. Christian Kirk has now assembled 116 targets, including 72 (9.0 per game) since Week 7. Chris Godwin has accumulated 113 targets since Week 4 while averaging 10.3 per game during that span. That has expanded his season-long total to 116.

Amari Cooper has accrued 115 targets, even though he has only averaged 6.5 during his last two matchups. Ja’Marr Chase has captured 28 targets during his last two contests which fueled a rise in his overall total (110). That ties Chase with Garrett Wilson, who has now averaged 10.3 per game since Week 13. Wilson’s numbers in Week 15 will be examined further in the Five Things I Noticed section.

Tyler Lockett has captured 108 targets including 9+  in three consecutive outings. Lockett has also assembled 30 (10 per game) during that span. That ties Lockett with Mike Evans, who was targeted 10 times in Week 15. It was his first double-digit total since Week 9 while he has also averaged 7.0 from Weeks 10-14.

Once again, they forgot about Zay.#DALvsJAX on FOX/NFL+ pic.twitter.com/0ZM0pGGLMt

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) December 18, 2022

Zay Jones is tied for eighth overall with 51 targets (8.2 per game) from Weeks 10-15.  That has launched his overall total to 106. Terry McLaurin has now accumulated 104 targets, even though he has been limited to just six in two of his last three games. DeVonta Smith has now been targeted 8+ times in six consecutive games which has expanded his overall total to 103.

Chris Olave has collected 102 targets, although the four that he attained in Week 15 represented his lowest weekly total since New Orleans’ season opener. Jaylen Waddle has now assembled 101 targets after collecting seven when the Dolphins visited Buffalo in Week 15. The second-year receiver had averaged just 4.5 targets per game in his two previous outings.

Six different wide receivers have averaged at least 10 targets per game from Weeks 1-15 - Jefferson (11.3), Chase (11.0), Hill (10.9), Adams (10.8), Hopkins  (10.8), and Diggs (10.1).   

Week 15 Target Risers And Fallers 

14 different wide receivers accumulated at least 10 targets during their matchups in Week 15.  This includes Justin Jefferson, who contributed to his league-leading target total by capturing 16 when Minnesota hosted Indianapolis in Week 15. It is the second time in his last six contests that he has secured 16 targets, and he has now eclipsed 10+ in 10 different matchups throughout the season.

Kirk Cousins dots up K.J Osborn for a touchdown pic.twitter.com/FN9H2M9lWo

— Main Team (@MainTeamSports) December 17, 2022

That tied Jefferson with his teammate K.J. Osborn, who established a new career high with his 16 targets. It was just the second time in 40 career games that Osborne has attained a double-digit total. A.J. Brown was the third wide receiver who assembled 16 targets in Week 15 which was his highest weekly total since Week 16 of 2021. Brown has now eclipsed 10+ targets in five different matchups during his first season with Philadelphia.

Michael Pittman’s 14 targets represented his highest weekly total since Week 6 when he captured a season-high 16. He also secured the second-highest target share of any wide receiver in Week 15 (45.2%). Tyreek Hill has now accumulated 37 targets since Week 13, after collecting 13 when Miami visited Buffalo in Week, 15. That places Hill second among all wide receivers during that three-game sequence while he has also averaged 12.3 per game.

Ja’Marr Chase has now collected 10+ targets in seven of his 10 contests this season after accruing 13 in Week 15. Chase has also secured a double-digit target total in five of his last six matchups Russell Gage attained a double-digit target total for the second time this season when he was targeted 12 times by Tom Brady in Week 15. It was the first time that he eclipsed 10+ since Week 3.

That Ridder-London connection

📺 FOX || NFL+ pic.twitter.com/MoCDKPlurY

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 18, 2022

Drake London has now secured 11+ targets during each of his last two matchups after he assembled 11 during Desmond Ridder’s debut under center for Atlanta. That tied London with DeAndre Hopkins, who has now stockpiled 86 targets (10.8 per game) since he resurfaced in Arizona’s lineup during Week 7.

Five different wide receivers amassed 10 targets during their matchups in Week 15. That list includes Diontae Johnson, who has commandeered the league’s third-highest target share since Week 13 (36.7%). Amon-Ra St.Brown has also exceeded 10+ targets during five of his last eight matchups after securing 10 in Week 15.

Christian Kirk has now averaged 9.2 targets per game during his last five matchups after he was targeted 10 times by Trevor Lawrence in Week 15. Mike Evans has averaged 8.2 targets per game since Week 9 after he collected 10 targets in Week 15.

JuJu Smith-Schuster did not register a double-digit target total from Weeks 1-8. However, he has now accomplished it during three of his last six matchups after accumulating 10 targets in Week 15.

K. J. Osborn had averaged just 3.3 targets per game from Weeks 11-14, including the five that he registered in Week 15. However, the career-best 16 that he stockpiled in Week 15 fueled his weekly rise of +11.

Michael Pittman’s 14 targets in Week 15 represented his second-highest weekly total of the season. It also transpired one week after he had been relegated to a season-low four targets, which resulted in his increase of +10

A.J. Brown had failed to exceed six targets during four of his six matchups from Weeks 9-14, including a six-target outing when Philadelphia visited the Giants in Week 14. However, his season-high 16 targets in Week 15 launched his week-to-week rise of +10.

Tom Brady finds Russell Gage to put the Bucs up by 10 #GoBucs #FPC #NFL #NFLTwitter

pic.twitter.com/6t5fVSZkIG

— Full Press NFL (@FullPressNFL) December 18, 2022

That tied Brown with Russell Gage, who was limited to 25 snaps (33% share) in Week 14. He accumulated 46 snaps (62% share) when Tampa Bay hosted Cincinnati in Week 15, which provided Gage with the opportunity to collect 12 targets during the matchup with the Bengals.

Donovan Peoples-Jones secured a career-high 12 targets in Week 15 but the third-year receiver was only targeted four times by Deshaun Watson in Week 15. That created his decline of -8.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine captured eight targets when Tennessee hosted Jacksonville in Week 14. However, even though he secured an 82% snap share when the Titans traveled to Los Angeles in Week 15 he was only targeted twice. That fueled his weekly decline of -6.

Josh Reynolds played on 43 snaps and garnered six targets during the Lions' Week 14 matchup with Minnesota. He only played on three fewer snaps in Week 15 but failed to register a target. That launched his weekly drop of -6.

D.J. Chark averaged 6.5 targets per game in Weeks 13-14 but was only targeted twice with Detroit traveling to New York in Week 15. That resulted in his weekly decrease of -5.

That tied him with Keenan Allen, who had accumulated 14 targets in two consecutive matchups entering Week 15. Allen still accrued nine targets in Week 15 but that was sufficient to cause his drop of -5.

Week 15 Air Yards

Davante Adams leads all wide receivers with 1.767 air yards. Tyreek Hill is a close second (1,758), followed by Justin Jefferson (1,607), Stefon Diggs (1.548), Chris Olave (1,475), A.J. Brown (1,404), Amari Cooper (1,359), Mike Evans (1,350), Terry McLaurin (1,311), and D.K. Metcalf. who has accumulated 1,292 air yards.

Jaylen Waddle is next (1,259), followed by CeeDee Lamb (1,258), Diontae Johnson (1,237), D.J. Moore (1,192), Gabriel Davis (1,158), Tyler Lockett (1.136), Garrett Wilson (1,119), and Mack Hollins, who has accrued 1,105 air yards. Christian Kirk is next (1,049), followed by Courtland Sutton (1,045), DeVonta Smith (1,017), George Pickens (998), Donovan Peoples-Jones (977), and Cincinnati teammates Tee Higgins (972) and Ja’Marr Chase (963).

D.J. Moore leads all wide receivers with a 45.9% air yards share. DeAndre Hopkins is second (41.9%), followed by Davante Adams (41.4%), A.J. Brown (41.4%), Justin Jefferson (40.8%), Tyreek Hill (39.4%), Amari Cooper (38.9%), Darius Slayton (38.5%), and Ja’Marr Chase, who has secured an air yards share of 37.9%.

D.K. Metcalf is next (37.1%), followed by Marquise Brown (36.6%), Chris Olave (36.4%), CeeDee Lamb (36.2%), Terry McLaurin (35.9%), and Stefon Diggs, who has attained an air yards share of 35.4%. Mike Williams is next (34.6%), followed by Mike Evans (34.4%), Diontae Johnson (32.7%), Tyler Lockett (32.6%), and Allen Lazard, who has secured an air yards share of 32.2%.

Week 15 Targets Per Route Run

DeAndre Hopkins is being targeted on 38.4% of his routes which leads all wide receivers. Tyreek Hill is second overall (37.2%), followed by Amon-Ra St. Brown (35.2%), Deebo Samuel (34.7%), Davante Adams (34.1%), Christian Watson (33.3%), Chris Olave (30.8%), CeeDee Lamb (30.1%), and A.J. Brown, who completes the list of 10 receivers who are being targeted on at least 30% of their routes.

Keenan Allen is next (29.1%), followed by Chris Godwin (28.9%), Drake London (28.6%), Jauan Jennings (28.6%), Justin Jefferson (28.4%), Brandon Aiyuk (28%), Amari Cooper (27.4%), Jakobi Meyers (27.3%), and two receivers who are being targeted on 27.2% of their routes – D.K. Metcalf, and Nico Collins. Ja’Marr Chase and Michael Pittman have both secured a percentage of 26.6%, followed by Tee Higgins who has been targeted on 26.4% of his routes.

Week 15 Yards Per Route Run

Tyreek Hill leads all wide receivers with an average of 3.74 yards per route run. DeAndre Hopkins is second overall (3.18), followed by Christian Watson (3.17), A.J. Brown (3.06), Justin Jefferson (2.91), Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.88), Davante Adams (2.88), Chris Olave (2.84), Jaylen Waddle (2.78), CeeDee Lamb (2.64), and Tee Higgins, who is averaging 2.54 yards per route run.

Terry McLaurin is next (2.48), followed by Keenan Allen (2.44), Brandon Aiyuk (2.4), Jakobi Meyers (2.4), Darius Slayton (2.35), Deebo Samuel, (2.34), Treylon Burks (2.33), Stefon Diggs (2.32), Randall Cobb (2.28), and Garrett Wilson, who is averaging 2.27 yards per route run. Amari Cooper is next (2.22), followed by Mike Williams (2.16), DeVonta Smith (2.15), JuJu Smith- Schuster (2.14), and Ja’Marr Chase, who is averaging 2.13 yards per route run.

Week 15 Red Zone Targets

Justin Jefferson accumulated two red zone targets in Week 15 and has now collected 10 during Minnesota’s last six matchups. That has increased his overall total to 25 from Weeks 1-16 which leads all wide receivers. D.K. Metcalf is second overall with 23 targets, followed by two receivers who have been targeted 22 times – Stefon Diggs, and Ja’Marr Chase.

Christian Kirk is next (20), followed by Davante Adams (18), Adam Thielen (18), Garrett Wilson (17), Zay Jones (17), and five receivers who have captured 15 red zone targets from Weeks 1- 16 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, and Russell Gage. A.J. Brown has been targeted 14 times, while Juju Smith-Schuster and Isaiah McKenzie have accrued 13 targets.

Jefferson also leads his position with 17 targets inside the 10-yard line. Diggs has been targeted 12 times, while Kirk, Adams, and Wilson have all garnered 10 targets inside the 10. Three receivers have collected nine targets (Metcalf/Chase/Godwin)  while Brown, Curtis Samuel, and Josh Reynolds have accumulated eight.

Diggs and Kirk lead all wide receivers with eight targets inside the 5-yard line, while Adams, Chase, and St. Brown have been targeted six times.

Week 15 Snap Counts

TD secure ✅ pic.twitter.com/trDzhf7nGT

— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) December 18, 2022

D.J. Moore leads all wide receivers with a 96.6% snap share entering Week 16. Michael Pittman is next (96.3%), followed by Justin Jefferson (95.6%), Davante Adams (95.3%), Marquise Brown (94.9%), Mack Hollins (93.6%), Ja’Marr Chase (93.2%), Adam Thielen (92.1%), Brandon Aiyuk (91.4%), and Gabriel Davis, who has secured a 91.4% snap share.

Allen Lazard is next (90.7%), followed by Terry McLaurin (90.4%), DeVonta Smith (94.4%), Diontae Johnson (89.9%), Courtland Sutton (89.5%), Donovan Peoples-Jones (89.2%), Christian Kirk (88.7%), and CeeDee Lamb, who has attained a snap share of 87.5%.

DeAndre Hopkins is next (87.4%), followed by Zay Jones (87.0%), Chase Claypool (86.3%), Mike Evans (83.9%), A.J. Brown (83.8%), Robbie Anderson (83.6%), Parris Campbell (83.5%), and Amari Cooper, who has secured a snap share of 83.4%.

Justin Jefferson leads all wide receivers with 881 offensive snaps from Weeks 1-15. Terry McLaurin is second overall (850), followed by Adam Thielen (849), Michael Pittman (846), DeVonta Smith (844), Donovan Peoples-Jones (840), Davante Adams (822), Diontae Johnson (814), Mack Hollins (808), and Brandon Aiyuk, who has played on 798 offensive snaps.

Christian Kirk is next (793), followed by CeeDee Lamb (792), Amari Cooper (786), Gabriel Davis (784), A.J. Brown (783), Parris Campbell (774), D.J. Moore (764), Mike Evans (750), Josh Palmer (741), and Zay Jones, who has been involved in 738 of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps.

Stefon Diggs is next (712), followed by George Pickens (694), Curtis Samuel (688), K.J. Osborn (687), Garrett Wilson (686), Tyler, Lockett (682), Ben Skowronek (680), and Chris Godwin, who has performed on 676 snaps entering Week 16.

Five Things I Noticed  

1. Keenan Allen entered Week 13 having been limited to 145 snaps, 21 targets, 16 receptions, and 220 receiving yards from Weeks 1-12. This was the byproduct of his lingering hamstring injury which forced fantasy managers to exercise patience as Allen remained sidelined for seven games.  

Mike Williams had also been limited to a minuscule six snaps, one target, one reception, and 15 receiving yards from Weeks 8-13 due to an ankle issue that had been re-aggravated during an ill-fated return in Week 11. This had followed a sequence from Weeks 1-7 in which he had operated with an 88.7% snap share while vaulting to ninth in receiving yards (495/70.7 per game), and 11th overall in targets (59/8.4 per game), and receptions (37/5.3 per game).

However, Allen operated with an 89.82% snap share since Week 12, while Williams has secured a 76.4% share since Week 14. These developments have provided Justin Herbert with the opportunity to target his top two receiving weapons. This has been beneficial for Los Angeles while also providing fantasy managers with a scoring boost that can be embraced.

Allen soared to the league lead with 28 targets (14 per game) in Weeks 13-14, while his 31.5% target share placed him fifth overall. He is currently second overall with 37 targets (12.3 per game) from Weeks 13-15, and eighth with a 29.1% target share. Allen is also second in receptions (26/8.7 per game), eighth in receiving yards (266/88.7 per game), and ninth in air yards (316) while attaining an air yards share of 35.5%.

"that catch"
"that pass"
🥺 pic.twitter.com/XY7zbs5NO7

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 12, 2022

Allen ran 52 routes in Weeks 13-14 and was targeted on a whopping 53.8% of those routes. He also averaged 3.46 yards per route run during that two-game span.

MIKE WILLIAMS. Oh my goodness. pic.twitter.com/Web4TMN9Wq

— Austin Pendergist (@apthirteen) December 12, 2022

Williams secured a 65% snap share when he resurfaced in Week 14 while collecting all six of his targets, and assembling 116 yards. It was the fourth time that Williams had eclipsed 6+ targets and was also the fourth game in which he exceeded 100 yards. Williams also accumulated 83 air yards and attained a 34.6% air yards share.

Since Week 14 Williams is now sixth overall in receiving yards (183/91.5 per game), 12th in air yards (202), 14th in air yards share (37.4%), and 19th in yards after catch (41). He has also accumulated 14 targets (7.0 per game), and 10 receptions (5.0 per game), has been targeted on 17.9% of his routes and has averaged 2.35 yards per route run.

boom pic.twitter.com/KzJMiTHONK

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 13, 2022

Josh Palmer had secured a 23.7% target share from Weeks 6-13 while operating as the Chargers’ WR1 during that span. He rose to WR22 in PPR scoring during that sequence (15.8 points per game), while also ascending to 14th in targets (58/9.7 per game), 12th in receptions (40/6.7 per game), and 24th in receiving yards (429/53.6 per game).

Palmer’s target share has dropped to 12.9% since Week 14, while he has averaged 5.5 targets, 4.5 receptions, and 51 receiving yards. He is also averaging 9.6 points per game, has been targeted on 15.9% of his routes, and has averaged 1.48 yards per route run.

Palmer is no longer a starting option due to the unsurprising statistical decline that has occurred since Allen and Williams resurfaced. Allen is an unquestioned WR1 while Williams is a high-end WR3  during their next two matchups with the Colts and Rams.

2. The AFC East showdown between Miami and Buffalo in Week 15 was a critical matchup for both teams, while the results were also crucial for fantasy managers who were dependent on the top receiving options that were involved in the contest. Even though Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were both contained inside the top 11 in scoring, the recent statistical decline of their quarterback had provided reasons for concern.

Tyreek Hill has the Ravens physically choking on his dust during this touchdown sprint.

Tua delivered the throw people said he would never make, too. This is exactly the type of offensive explosion the Dolphins envisioned. pic.twitter.com/zVg83mLMa6

— Cole Topham (@HamAnalysis) September 18, 2022

Fantasy managers who had been rewarded for their investments in Hill and Waddle throughout the regular season had also encountered some level of uneasiness due to the recent decline in Tua Tagovailoa’s proficiency under center for the Dolphins. Tagovailoa had built a 19:3  touchdown to interception ratio from Weeks 1-12 while averaging 31.6 attempts, 22 completions, and 285 yards per game. He was also completing 69.7% of his passes while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt during that span.

However, in Weeks 13-14 Tagovailoa’s completion percentage plummeted to 45.9% as he averaged 30.5 attempts, 14 completions, and 220 yards per game. His numbers became even more alarming when Miami visited the Chargers in Week 14 as Tagovailoa only completed 35.7% of his passes while averaging 5.2 yards per attempt.

Hill still captured 24 targets during that two-game sequence (12.0 per game) which placed him fifth among all wide receivers. He was also fourth in receiving yards (227/113.5 per game) and seventh in receptions (13/6.5 per game). He delivered those numbers despite being confronted by an ankle issue in Los Angeles while finishing WR5 in Weeks 13-14. He was also second overall in air yards (327) and third in both air yards share (47.4%) and yards after catch (81).

Waddle was unable to evade the sudden issues under center while he also sustained a leg injury in Week 13 that also contributed to his statistical plunge in Weeks 13-14. He was limited to a 15.5% target share during those contests while also being relegated to just nine targets (4.5 per game), 3.0 receptions (1.5 per game), and 40 yards (20 per game) during those two contests. He was also targeted on 34.6% of his 26 routes while averaging 1.54 yards per route run.

Fortunately for anyone who had Hill or Waddle contained on their rosters there was an improvement in Tagovailoa’s performance during Week 15. He completed 17 of his 30 attempts (56.7%), as Hill and Waddle combined for a 66% target share, 12 receptions, and 183 receiving yards. Tagovailoa also connected with both receivers for touchdowns.

A dime from @Tua to @Cheetah 😍

📺 #MIAvsBUF on @NFLNetwork pic.twitter.com/Czon56rcya

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 18, 2022

Hill tied for fifth among all wide receivers in Week 15 with 13 targets while his 43.3% share placed him third overall. He was sixth among all wide receivers with nine receptions, although his 69 yards with the fewest since Week 10. Hill did generate a touchdown for the fifth time in six of his last six matchups and was targeted on 44.8% percent of his routes while averaging 2.38 yards per route run.

He was GONE when his feet hit the ground! 🐧 @D1__JW

📺: #MIAvsBUF on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/OppdDaKY2o pic.twitter.com/tdhvjv5Y2i

— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2022

Waddle secured a 23.3% target share while collecting three of his seven targets and generating his highest yardage total since Week 6 (114). He also finished ninth among all receivers with 114 air yards and was eighth with a 46.0% share of air yards. He was also targeted on 30.4% percent of his routes and averaged 4.96 yards per route run.

Hill and Waddle will commandeer a high percentage of targets when the Dolphins host Green Bay on Sunday, and should remain cemented in all lineups when Miami travels to New England in Week 17.

3. Garrett Wilson’s exceptional talent is unquestioned. However, his usage and production have fluctuated on multiple occasions during the season as the result of multiple transitions at quarterback by the Jets.

we might just have to keep a camera on @GarrettWilson_V every play pic.twitter.com/dULkwL83HX

— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 20, 2022

Wilson thrived at the onset of his rookie season with Joe Flacco spearheading the Jets’ aerial attack. Wilson soared to WR9 in scoring from Weeks 2-3, while he also averaged 11.0 targets, 6.0 receptions, and 71.3 receiving yards per game from Weeks 1-3. He also eclipsed 8+ targets and 52+ yards during all three of those contests, while being targeted on 30.8% of his routes and averaging 2.00 yards per route run.

Zach Wilson emerged from his knee injury at that juncture of the season and remained the starting signal caller for seven consecutive games. His inadequacies have been well-documented, and the conversion under center fueled a drop in Garrett Wilson’s numbers. This included a decline in his per-game averages (5.4 targets/3.7 receptions/45.6 yards per game).

Those averages plunged even further from Weeks 4-6 (2.0 receptions/25.3 yards) as Wilson plummeted to WR76. He was also targeted on 21.7% of his routes and averaged 1.10 yards per route run.

Robert Saleh’s decision to replace Zach Wilson with Mike White in Week 12 resuscitated Garrett Wilson’s season by immediately removing the obstacle that had impeded him from delivering highly productive outings.

.@GarrettWilson_V GOING HERO MODE #ProBowlVote#NYJvsMIN on CBS pic.twitter.com/jgts5bj3oy

— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 4, 2022

This also enabled Wilson to secure a 23.6% target share while vaulting to second in receiving yards (335/111.98 per game), eighth in targets (30/10.0 per game), and eighth in receptions (19/6.3, per game) from Weeks 12-14. Wilson was also targeted on 37.5% of his routes and averaged 4.19 yards per route run.

The insertion of White as the starting signal caller had ignited the Jets’ passing attack while positioning Wilson to sustain his recent statistical surge when the Jets hosted the Lions in Week 15. However, White sustained a rib injury when New York visited Buffalo in Week 14, which ultimately fueled the re-emergence of Zach Wilson under center.

News of the latest transition at quarterback defused the enthusiasm that had been building in advance of Wilson’s enticing matchup with Detroit. This was abruptly replaced by diminished expectations following the announcement.

Zach Wilson eventually launched 35 attempts in Week 15 which were the most since Week 8. He only completed 18 of those passes (51.4%) although he did eclipse 300 yards (317).

Yes, @GarrettWilson_V is different.#DETvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/oJs2wUw5vy

— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 18, 2022

Garrett Wilson secured a team-best 26.5% target share while capturing a team-high nine targets. He also accumulated four receptions and 94 receiving yards - which placed him ninth among all wide receivers in Week 15. Wilson also soared to third overall with 166 air yards and was 19th with a 33.7% air yards share.

Wilson also ran 39 routes, was targeted on 23.1% of those routes, and averaged 2.51 yards per route run.

Elijah Moore attained the second-highest target share 20.6% while accumulating four targets and 51 receiving yards. Corey Davis was inactive and his status for New York’s Week 16 matchup with Jacksonville should be monitored. Wilson’s usage could be impacted whenever Davis does resurface although fantasy managers should continue to start him as a WR2.

4. Wilson is not the only rookie wide receiver who could provide a late-season statistical boost to fantasy managers in their drive for a championship. Drake London has captured a league-high 46% target share during his last two matchups while accumulating 23 during that span. London has attained the league’s fifth-highest target per game average during those matchups (11.5) which includes his first game following the transition from Marcus Mariota to Desmond Ridder under center.

London had not secured a double-digit target total since Week 2 prior to his favorable usage during the Falcons' last two contests. He had also averaged 5.0 targets per game from Weeks 3-12 while his target share was 24.7%. London’s numbers still led Atlanta’s wide receivers by a considerable margin despite the uninspiring results. This was a byproduct of Arthur Smith’s penchant for the deployment of Atlanta’s rushing attack, as the Falcons currently rank second in run play percentage (56.1%).  London also ran 231 routes from Weeks 3-12, but was targeted on 21.6% of those routes, and averaged 1.2 yards per route run.

A career-high 95 yards for @DrakeLondon_ deserves all the #ProBowlVote RTs

📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/zVVkJTdfQl

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 5, 2022

However, London operated with a 50% target share when the Falcons hosted Pittsburgh in Week 13. That was Mariota‘s final matchup as the team's starting signal caller and 12 of his 24 passing attempts were distributed to London during that contest.

London also collected six receptions during that Week 13 matchup which was his highest weekly total since Week 2. He also established a new career high while accumulating 95 receiving yards. London’s 176 yards also placed him fourth among all wide receivers while he was also 13th overall with a 46.6% air yards share.

The Falcons returned from their Week 14 bye with Ridder elevated into the starting role at quarterback. Atlanta had selected Ridder in Round 3 of last April’s NFL draft (74th overall) and his insertion under center provided the first opportunity to witness how London would be impacted by the transformation from Mariota.

Ridder’s numbers were certainly underwhelming as he only connected on 13 of his 26 attempts while generating 97 yards. However, London’s involvement in the reshaped aerial attack was encouraging.

London secured a 42.3% target share which placed him fifth among all wide receivers in Week 15. He also lead the team and targets by a considerable margin as no other Falcons surpassed three when the team visited New Orleans.

Drake London with a one handed catch 😮‍💨 #DirtyBirds pic.twitter.com/pdlViwyqpr

— Josh Dorsey (@J_Dorsey3) December 18, 2022

London also captured seven receptions which were his highest total since Week 2. He also assembled 70 receiving yards and 96 air yards while his 46.6% air yard share placed him sixth overall. London also ran 30 routes in Week 15, was targeted on 36.7% percent of those routes, and averaged 2.33 yards per route run.

Ridder’s learning curve and Smith’s ground-oriented strategic approach will impede London from maximizing his abilities during Atlanta’s remaining matchups. However, his role as the Falcons’ top receiving weapon should still compel you to utilize him as a WR3.

5. Brandon Aiyuk had captured a 24.8% target share from Weeks 6-10 and had also accumulated 35 targets (8.8 per game) - which placed him 16th overall. He was also 12th overall in receptions (27/6.8 per game), and 13th in receiving yards (330/82.5 yards per game) during those contests. He also stockpiled seven red zone targets which placed him second overall behind Justin Jefferson during that sequence.

Aiyuk had been accruing those numbers with Jimmy Garoppolo guiding San Francisco’s offense. However, Garoppolo sustained a foot injury in Week 13 which vaulted rookie Brock Purdy under center.

Purdy now connected on 62 of his 93 passing attempts (66.7% completion percentage) while generating 678 yards (113 per game) and constructing a 6:2 touchdown to interception ratio. He has also averaged 7.3 yards per attempt and 7.6 air yards per attempt.

Aiyuk kidding me?! 🤯#ProBowlVote @THE2ERA

📺 #TBvsSF on FOX
📱 NFL+ // https://t.co/d2FDeaE8pp pic.twitter.com/QNPqo4spjm

— San Francisco 49ers - x (@49ers) December 11, 2022

Purdy has also started two consecutive games for the 49ers (Weeks 14-15). Aiyuk has attained an 87.4% snap share but just a 14.6% target share during those contests. He has been targeted seven times (3.5 per game) while collecting four receptions (2.0 per game) and generating 76 yards (38 per game) during Purdy’s two starts. Aiyuk has also been targeted on 15.6% of his routes while averaging 1.69 yards per route run.

Purdy has distributed a team-high 11 targets to Christian McCaffrey (22.9% share) while George Kittle is the only other 49er who has attained a double-digit total (10/20.8% share). Deebo Samuel had collected four or five targets (22.7% share) and generated 43 receiving yards before sustaining both an MCL sprain and an ankle sprain in Week 14.

Aiyuk’s upcoming matchups against Washington and Las Vegas are enticing. However, anyone who has Aiyuk contained on their rosters should be concerned about the reduction in his targets following the transition to Purdy.

Aiyuk is not the only wide receiver who has sustained a decrease in usage during recent matchups. Parris Campbell attained a 22.3% target share from Weeks 6-10 which was second on the Colts to Michael Pittman’s 28% share. Rookie Alec Pierce was a distant third among Indianapolis wide receivers with an 11.4% share during those contests.

Campbell ascended to 13th among all wide receivers with 39 targets during that span. He also secured 9+ in three of his five matchups during that sequence while averaging 7.8 per game.

However, even though Campbell has secured an 82% target share since Week 12, he has also been limited to a 12.2% share. He has also failed to exceed five targets during any of his last three matchups, which has relegated him to an average of 4.0 targets per game during those contests. Pittman leads the Colts with 36 routes during that sequence, followed by Pierce (32), and Campbell (31).

The decline in opportunities has also restricted his production, as Campbell has also averaged just 2.7 receptions per game during that sequence while failing to surpass 2.0 receptions in two of his last three matchups. Campbell has also averaged 23.3 yards per game while failing to surpass 14 yards in two of his last three games.

Pittman has attained a 29.6% target share since Week 12, while Pierce’s 14.3% share has also surpassed Campbell’s 12.2% during that span. This decline in usage already created risk in starting Campbell even before the decision was made to transition from Matt Ryan to Nick Foles. This should compel you to avoid using Campbell during your remaining postseason matchups.

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