RADIO
Every year, there are certain players who have the ability to win you a season. These players are a tier above the rest of the competition, and they can come from literally anywhere. Whether it is the first round of your league’s draft or the last waiver claim to get submitted, finding these gems makes being successful so much easier.
However, it is obviously much easier to find star players among the consensus-picked leaders of each position than the waiver wire fodder waiting to be scooped up after drafts. But how do you differentiate from these star players? There is a reason why they are in the upper echelon of their position - they are pretty good at playing football.
Finding the best player is a very difficult task because, realistically, any of the players at the top of each position’s board can finish as the top of their group. However, if you do pick correctly and land the best player, your season will be much easier because you will have a consistent advantage over your opponents. Therefore, without further ado, here are my predictions for the top finishers at each skill position in standard re-draft leagues this year.
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Top Quarterback: Tom Brady
It is very easy to dislike Tom Brady in fantasy leagues this year. Going at pick 30 overall on Fantasy Football Calculator and entering his age-40 season, Brady is a little too rich for a late-quarterback preacher like me. However, the stats don’t lie. Brady has 64 touchdowns to nine interceptions in the last two seasons. Last year, Brady had two picks the entire year. He averaged 24.7 points per game, good for fourth among all quarterbacks. Here is where it gets interesting: Brady was without star tight-end Rob Gronkowski all year. Add to this that the team signed deep threat Brandin Cooks in the offseason, and you have the best supporting cast Brady has surrounded himself with in quite some time. There is no reason why his 2015 stat line (4,770, 36-7) should not be expected in the upcoming season. With those kind of numbers, he is a lock for the top-three at the position and is expected to be the top quarterback at the end of the season.
Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan all are contenders for the top spot as well. Rodgers is the most likely, but the thing that separates him and Brady is the team around them. New England will never lose more than a few games each season, while the surrounding casts of the rest (save Matt Ryan) might not be enough to guarantee weekly domination of an opponent. Although Ryan still has an amazing defense, offensive core and line around him, last year has to be considered an outlier until we can see a consistent track record of similar performances. It is too much risk, whereas with Brady, who has stated that he will play for five more years, the risk is virtually nonexistent.
Top Running Back: David Johnson
What more needs to be said about Arizona’s darling. Coming off of a ridiculous season on a struggling team, David Johnson has declared that his goal is to have 1,000 yards rushing and receiving this season. Furthermore, both him and his coach believe that he will see 30 touches a game next season. While this is highly unrealistic given precedent as well as the team around him, there is no reason to expect regression from one of the best players in the league. He is the complete running back, offering speed, power, and receiving ability. Generational talents who have no risk attached to them do not come around often; it is hard to imagine a scenario where Johnson is not the top contributor at the running back position.
One player who could challenge Johnson for the spot is Le’Veon Bell. Bell performed at a superhuman level last season, averaging 20.2 points per game last season. That was half a point less than Johnson, but the problem was that Bell was suspended for the first three games last season. Bell still carries the risk of suspension as well as a lack of massive touchdown upside, which is crucial to maintaining an elite presence within fantasy circles.
Top Wide Receiver: Julio Jones
While many consider Antonio Brown to be the top player at the position, Julio Jones has more upside in the Super Bowl caliber Atlanta offense than his Pittsburgh counterpart. Yes, many have stated that Martavis Bryant’s return will only help open up space for Brown, but the sample size of both Bryant and Brown being in the game when Ben Roethlisberger was also playing is very limited. Furthermore, it is natural that Bryant will take red zone looks away from Brown, while there is no competition for Julio Jones, who has arguably the most talent of any wide receiver in real life. The Falcons have come out and stated that they will try and use Jones more in the red zone next season. Therefore, even though there is a certain injury risk, Jones is on an ascending offense while Brown has to deal with Roethlisberger aging and Bell and Bryant stealing red zone touches as well as yards between the 20s. For these reasons, Jones gets my vote as the top finisher at the position this year.
Top Tight End: Rob Gronkowski
Yes, I know. Another Patriot. This is probably the least guaranteed given Gronk’s injury history and the congested receiving core of the Patriots. However, with Gronk, the gamble is worth it. No other tight end has as much upside as Gronkowski. Only he can provide over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns. His new contract stipulates that he gets paid more than any other tight end in the game if he reaches these objectives, so there is motivation for him to stay healthy and play. Furthermore, even with dud games in his schedule last season, Gronk still averaged nine points per game in the eight games he played in last season (most points per game out of any tight end). He is an athletic freak, and nothing will stop his dominance if he is able to stay on the field.
Simply because of upside and the quality of offense, Gronk is a head and shoulders above everyone else, despite the risk. Kelce plays on a low-scoring offense led by game-manager Alex Smith and Eifert and Reed have the same injury risks without Gronk’s consistent elite production when healthy.
