RADIO
Here we go again folks. If you want to just scroll a bit to the picks, be my guest, but first I want to briefly touch on the DFS trends of late as well as some more chalky plays. Week 8 is here and for the sake of consistency I'll stick with the tournaments that start at 1 PM Eastern Time like the Milly Maker, so don't be shocked to see no one from Detroit-Kansas City listed.
In case you haven't noticed, the chalk has been pretty dominant lately. You might think you're really giving yourself a great chance by taking some mid-level or cheaper guys so that you can then pay up for some studs, but when a lot of players are on them then you need to hit on everything to win tournaments. If you miss on one or two guys, it's just not going to be good enough in tournament fields that are so huge. On DraftKings, you really want to hit those bonuses. This being said, it'd be a bit of a gambler's fallacy to project this chalk dominance going forward, but all the same it's important to be aware of, especially as you look back and assess your play. Now I'll briefly touch on bigger names before diving into the guys I like as projected low owned tournament plays.
I'm not sure how Andy Dalton is only $6,000, but I expect a lot of people to roster him if they want to save the $600 down from Philip Rivers and his matchup against the awful Ravens' secondary. At running back, you'll probably see a lot of Gurley, Forsett, Ivory (though it's no good that Nick Mangold is doubtful), and Martin considering their ~$6,000 price points. Chris Johnson will be the heavily owned $5,000 and under guy.
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Let's look at some guys that should be overshadowed by those names and their price points.
Week 8 Quarterback Sleepers
Jay Cutler (QB, CHI): $5,200 - vs. MIN
The Minnesota Vikings defense has shown a few cracks recently, but they're still a strong unit overall. The Chicago Bears are coming off of a bye week and should be rested, healthy, and prepared to attack Minnesota and defend home field. What I don't think a bye week is going to solve though is their run blocking issues. The Vikings have a strong front, though Sharrif Floyd missed practice again on Friday and that really hurts their interior presence, but the Bears simply can't open many lanes for Matt Forte. While Minnesota actually ranks out as a mediocre 18th against the pass according to FootballOutsiders, here are some more specific numbers: 20th against WR1 types, 27th against TEs, and 30th against RBs in the passing game. How do the Bears match up against this? Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and Forte. Jay Cutler might throw an interception or two, but if the Bears move the ball it will probably be through the air. Look for him to have a good chance to exceed the 300 yard mark with a legitimate shot at three touchdowns. He had 353 yards and one touchdown against the Lions in Week 6 and still put up 23.32 points, eclipsing 4x value.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, MIN): $5,100 - @CHI
Just like last week when Bridgewater was in this piece thanks to the weak opponent he was facing (the Detroit Lions), the Chicago Bears secondary gives him a chance to repeat as great value at near minimum price. He put up 22.7 in last week's matchup against a terrible secondary, and the hope here is that he can replicate the effort. He has shown his coaches, his teammates, and most importantly himself that he can be the guy. If he gets over that 20 point hump again then you've got 4x value on your hands. The only worry is that he's not a guy with the best chance at that 300+ passing yard bonus due to volume, but for $5,100 this is a solid dice roll. While Adrian Peterson continues to not be a superstud and he's a bit dinged up going into this week, Stefon Diggs has officially arrived for Teddy and the Vikings, giving him a trusted option, and giving DFS players a relatively cheap stacking play which can really pay off. Just as last week, I'll say that I'd rather own the other names versus Teddy, which is why he is explored more than just a namedrop.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Ryan Fitzpatrick, $5,200 @OAK, Brian Hoyer, $5,300 vs. TEN, Joe Flacco, $5,500 vs. SD.
Week 8 Running Back Sleepers
Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR): $4,000 – vs. IND
J-Stew is a little worrisome thanks to Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert being vultures, but the Panthers defense is very strong and the Panthers don't have premier receivers. In the game against the Eagles, we saw how the Panthers just steamrolled an Eagles' run defense that has been pretty good. The Colts haven't been atrocious against the run this year (15th according to FootballOutsiders), but it is Carolina's strength and Stewart could very well put up another 100 yard game, and if he gets a touchdown or two then you've got potential for a 30 point game for just $4,000.
Charles Sims (RB, TB): $3,600 – @ATL.
With Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy (Tampa Bay's #2 and #3 wide receivers) out, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins still looking iffy (he is practicing, but Lovie Smith says he still needs to see more from him), the Buccaneers are absolutely strapped for guys who can catch the ball. Doug Martin is a strong play this week, but he really can't be shoehorned into any sleeper type of article because he is finally getting some recognition. Charles Sims is very cheap this week, and in a PPR format like DraftKings he could be a diamond in the rough. There aren't many cheaper plays with high upside this week that aren't relatively chalky. Last week the Buccaneers came out and destroyed the Redskins early, so Sims wasn't really needed. Before that he had gone double digits (with increasing point totals) in the previous three weeks. The Falcons should pick apart the Buccaneers' defense, and Jameis Winston is going to need Charles Sims. Even if ASJ plays, Sims should still see a good amount of work. All you need from him is to rack up some garbage time catches, or break a screen pass/wheel route and take it to the house. In tournaments, you can do a lot worse, plus the Falcons are 25th against running backs in the passing game.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Darren McFadden, $3,800 vs. SEA, Danny Woodhead, $4,500 @BAL.
Week 8 Wide Receiver Sleepers
Nate Washington (WR, HOU): $3,600 - vs. TEN
Cecil Shorts has been ruled out, and while later I will touch on how the Titans' secondary is actually playing very well this year, the Houston Texans are beaten up. Losing Arian Foster cripples their rushing attack, and also means there are more targets to go around in the passing game. Houston doesn't have any playmaker at tight end. DeAndre Hopkins is a monster, but FootballOutsiders has the Titans' pegged as third best against #1 receivers, and third worst against #2 receivers. Nate Washington flashed the brilliance last week, so unfortunately that may push more ownership his way, but that price point and the matchup, combined with how many targets Washington sees when he's healthy (at least eight per game) are really difficult to get away from.
Marvin Jones (WR, CIN): $4,200 – @PIT
The Bengals are coming off of their bye week rested and prepared for a game that many are projecting to be a very high scoring affair. While A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert are both very strong options going into this matchup, the Steelers' worst ranked secondary facet is against opponents' #2 receivers, checking in at 26th. This is a tournament scenario, and if you can get an option who is coming off of a great game (9-95-1) for a team that has been going off this year in a plus matchup, I will sign up for that.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Michael Floyd, $3,500 @CLE, Davante Adams, $3,900 @DEN, Rueben Randle, $4,200 @NO.
Week 8 Tight End Sleepers
Larry Donnell (TE, NYG): $3,300 - @NO
The Saints rank out as dead last against tight ends according to FootballOutsiders, and Donnell is a great red zone target. The same rationale applies from the Randle point, that you want a cheaper guy who can end up with two touchdowns. Donnell could also sprinkle in some third down chain moving catches and perhaps Manning and McAdoo scheme some additional looks for Donnell considering the plus matchup.
Crockett Gillmore (TE, BAL): $2,500 - vs. SD
Crockett Gillmore posted a 10.3 total last week, and while you will want more in tournaments, those who watched the Monday night tilt against the Cardinals saw that Gillmore was getting those red zone desperation looks from Flacco. The Chargers are 30th against the tight end according to FootballOutsiders, and he is an undeniable hot read for Flacco. He has that touchdown potential, and has proven that he has a good chance of not goose egging you if he doesn't catch a touchdown.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Richard Rodgers, $3,000 vs. DEN, Benjamin Watson, $3,500 vs. NYG.
Week 8 Defense Sleepers
New York Jets, D/ST: $2,900 – @OAK
These are not your laughable Oakland Raiders anymore, but the Jets defense is still a very strong unit that doesn't have any glaring weakness. Calvin Pryor being out hurts, but it's still a good play, especially when the Jets are sandwiched between the Broncos defense that has a huge Fantasy Points Per Game figure that DFS players have to stare at, and the Cowboys defense that has a big ol' green "24th" next to them. I wish the Jets had a better return game, but they have enough playmakers on defense where this is a solid play.
Tennessee Titans, D/ST: $2,500 - @HOU
The Texans have no running game to speak of anymore, and while they aren't like the Chiefs in the sense that Arian Foster was their entire offensive identity, the deflation effect is still real. If you want a cheap defense, look at the Titans who have been generating a lot of pass rush and have the 6th best pass defense according to FootballOutsiders (versus their 30th best rush defense). Hoyer under pressure can make mistakes, and the Titans have the secondary to capitalize on poor/rushed throws.
