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John analyzes his latest 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie mock draft for 1QB leagues. His top sleepers and busts to target and avoid in 2025 rookie drafts.
I hope you're not getting tired of checking out new rookie mock drafts and analysis for dynasty fantasy football leagues. We're not getting tired of writing them... yet. With so much action in the rankings and ADPs, and players falling in and out of favor constantly, though, there's never a dull moment in analyzing player rankings.
Some fantasy football analysts, myself included, really don't like the fixation with ranking players on lists. It's more revealing to simply group them together and talk about scenarios. Rankings often funnel fantasy managers into drafting players almost strictly based on where they're ranked, which makes some drafts bland.
Luckily for us, though, I basically completely ignore consensus rankings in my analyses of players. So you'll get a fresh perspective, nearly unadulterated by the pressure other analysts feel to fall in line to avoid criticism. I welcome constructive criticism, of course. Anyways, let's dive in!
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First Round Rookie Mock Draft
Pick 1.01 – Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV)
Most analysts are dead set on Jeanty being the best back in the class. The season he had last year was very impressive, no doubt, but I've pored over his film over and over, and I don't think he's special. Very, very good, sure, but I just don't see the transcendent talent that will make him an elite top-3 RB in the NFL almost immediately.
Of course, you might as well draft him here if you insist on staying at this pick. Not much point in picking other players, considering that you can get so much for Jeanty in a trade and still get whoever else you want. But with this pick, I'm always trading down, just because I believe the capital you can get for him is worth it. I'd trade down at least a spot or two and try to draft Travis Hunter. He is a special, special athlete.
Jeanty's film is excellent, but he often benefited from huge holes in the run game and faced an extremely easy strength of schedule. On an SEC team, Jeanty's stats would certainly be less gaudy, and he might even be ranked a few spots lower. Perspective is very important. Had he put up that season at a P4 school, I'd be more impressed.
Pick 1.02 – Omarion Hampton (RB – LAC)
Hampton will likely start the year in a frustrating timeshare with fellow Chargers running back Najee Harris. We could see his value dip at least a bit over the first few games of the season. Over time, though, as he learns the playbook and gets more acclimated to the NFL, we should see him get more work.
Omarion Hampton got a nuts landing spot, but Greg Roman is a moron, so I wouldn't put it past him to give Najee Harris entirely too much usage while Hampton fantasy managers go insane at his lack of touches. Hampton should get the majority of the work, but Roman is just bad
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) April 25, 2025
Those who aren't familiar with Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman's stupid player usage and draft Hampton are undoubtedly set to become pretty familiar with it in due time. He's not a terrible pick, of course, but you might have to be patient.
Pick 1.03 – Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
McMillan is an example of a player I won't take anywhere. I see too many problems with his game, and he didn't get a good landing spot. The Panthers haven't been a good spot for wide receivers in fantasy football for basically a decade. Many are assuming that quarterback Bryce Young has turned the corner, but I have my doubts.
Can't get over some of Tetairoa McMillan's blunders and low-effort plays. Here he trips himself up on the most basic of releases. Sloppy footwork to trip over the ground before even starting his route pic.twitter.com/Z7GBjKT4m2
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025
It's been pretty shocking to me to see how many of his flaws are just completely ignored by seemingly everyone else. T-Mac doesn't really bring anything special to the table except for his size. He doesn't have the speed to win on deep routes without being forced to make contested catches in the NFL. A no-name cornerback from Colorado shutting him down is concerning. I'd avoid.
Pick 1.04 – Travis Hunter (WR/CB – JAX)
Hunter is an absolute marvel of an athlete. There are examples all over film. Remember when he was being taken in the second round of rookie drafts? I stated that I'd be willing to take him with the 1.01 if needed. That really hasn't changed. Hunter is the type of player you absolutely kick yourself if you let him get sniped away from you.
Here's a better one -- back in March, I said I'd be willing to draft Travis Hunter with the 1.01. If you listened and got him in the late first or early 2nd round in rookie drafts, trust me, you got a huge steal. Already his value is way higher, of course pic.twitter.com/Qpianv5CxN
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 27, 2025
It's tough to put into words how high his ceiling is. He's a nightmare at the catch point. He's incredibly fluid. He has great instincts. He has the ability to burst out of cuts with incredible suddenness. He also won the Biletnikoff Award while training to be a defensive back. His new head coach is an offensive-minded guy. You are getting a steal on him at the 1.04.
Taking McMillan over Hunter is insanity.
Pick 1.05 – TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE)
What's possessing people to take Henderson over the guy below him, anyway? Age, I suppose. Still, Henderson's worrying me. He doesn't play well through contact. He's at his best getting schemed touches in space, where he can use his explosiveness and long speed to break off huge plays.
Bhayshul Tuten is elusive all around but was notably productive up the middle at VT pic.twitter.com/Urax9F1lfV
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) May 14, 2025
Henderson's ability to create after being contacted is pretty worrying. The issues show up on film, too. He's just not a good tackle breaker. Just about the only thing he excelled at was gaining big yardage on outside runs when he didn't take any solid hits. The athleticism argument doesn't hold up either, because Harvey is faster. Harvey also is in a much better offense.
Pick 1.06 – RJ Harvey (RB – DEN)
By this point, it should be obvious that I'd take Harvey over Henderson any day. Age is an issue, but dynasty fantasy football is only played in windows of two to three years, so that's not a big concern. Harvey is simply better than Henderson at everything I see on film. The only edge Henderson has is top-end speed, which isn't as important as acceleration.
Unlike Quinshon Judkins, who often had very poor games at Ohio State against good competition, even with great run blocking, RJ Harvey just smashed every P4 team he played against in 2024. Not a bad game in his game log here, and he didn't have Treveyon Henderson to spell him. pic.twitter.com/W5coQxT70V
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025
Harvey put up monster stats against basically everyone, and despite his age, only has three full seasons of playing running back under his belt. He was a quarterback prospect entering college. He'll be Sean Payton's Joker soon enough, and everyone will want him on their rosters.
Pick 1.07 – Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
Judkins really isn't that great of a back for fantasy football. He grades terribly in pretty much every advanced statistical category. He's bad at creating explosive plays, bad at forcing missed tackles, has horribly inflexible hips, struggles with elusiveness, and isn't a good receiver. He's a bowling ball that can punish defenses. That's fine for the real NFL, but for fantasy football, you should avoid.
Pick 1.08 – Matthew Golden (WR – GB)
Golden enters a horrendously crowded wide receiver room. At some point in 2025, he'll be competing for targets in a run-heavy offense that spreads the ball around liberally with wide receivers Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson (knee), Dontayvion Wicks, and Mecole Hardman, tight ends Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave, and running backs Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd.
I really didn't like Golden's tape. From what I've seen, he doesn't have a release package, and he doesn't have an answer for press coverage, which is why he was constantly put in motion. He was basically the 1A or 1B to undrafted WR Isaiah Bond until Bond got hurt. I was shocked to see Golden rise so far. I wouldn't draft him inside the first two rounds.
Pick 1.09 – Emeka Egbuka (WR – TB)
Egbuka will be a slow burn for fantasy football managers through the first season or two of his career. Receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both will take priority in Tampa Bay's passing offense, though Egbuka should slot in over Jalen McMillan pretty much instantly. Godwin is a slot receiver. So is Egbuka. I don't like that for his production projections.
Pick 1.10 – Kaleb Johnson (RB – PIT)
Johnson is my least favorite player to pick at ADP. He offered pretty much nothing other than running through wide open gaps; the elite run-blocking of the Iowa offensive line opened up for him last year. Johnson's tape is absolutely shockingly abysmal on plays where the blocking isn't great.
For how much he's praised for his tackle breaking, Kaleb Johnson seems to go down every time he's tripped. Just get a hand on his leg and you can bring him down. OL opens up a huge hole that could've been a massive run here. pic.twitter.com/gbzjyHTJ17
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
League-losing pick, according to my analysis.
Pick 1.11 – Jayden Higgins (WR – HOU)
Higgins presence here is a bit surprising. He's been a big riser even after the NFL Draft. He'll be competing for targets with a crowded WR room that features Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and Jaylin Noel. I'm a big Noel fan, but there are three receivers that can be productive from the slot fighting with each other now. Interested to see what happens.
Personally, I like Higgins a lot, but he feels a bit expensive here. I'd rather take Noel at cost, though this is a bit of a dead zone.
Pick 1.12 – Cam Skattebo (RB – NYG)
Skattebo's refusal to run the 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Combine is a bit concerning. He's just not fast. Below a certain point, a lack of speed becomes a huge issue at the next level. It's also something that could put a major cap on his career. Very slow NFL players age horribly. It might not be long before he's just too slow to compete at the next level.
The Giants also have RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. there to compete with Skattebo for touches. He is definitely a good tackle-breaker, but I'd probably avoid picking him.
Second Round Rookie Mock Draft
Pick 2.01 – Cam Ward (QB – TEN)
Ward doesn't have a great receiver room to look forward to throwing to. He also has a questionable coaching staff that didn't see much success last season. The Titans had one of the league's worst offensive lines as well. Ward probably would have been QB7 in the 2024 NFL Draft, to top things off. And his play collapses under pressure.
He's not my QB1 in this class, so no reason to take him here.
Pick 2.02 – Tyler Warren (TE – IND)
Warren's physicality is fantastic for a tight end. I don't like his route-running as much as the next guy does, and that could be something that limits him in the future. Still, it's worth it to get the ball in his hands in whatever way possible, though I doubt he'll be some kind of backfield monster. Plus, receptions are much more valuable in fantasy football.
There are guys below him I'd take, like Tuten, especially, but tight end is a position afflicted by scarcity, so he should go higher based on that alone.
Pick 2.03 – Luther Burden III (WR – CHI)
Burden is not a very good route-runner. He's great after the catch, though, and a fantastic athlete. He doesn't really win downfield at all except on slot fades, which are cheat codes for college production that aren't available in the NFL due to the wider college hashes that aren't featured at the next level.
Still, you have to wonder why Bears head coach Ben Johnson drafted Burden when the team already had Colston Loveland, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze. Johnson must be envisioning a bigger role for him down the road, and on an offense without Odunze or Moore. That, and Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, was just awful on downfield throws.
Perhaps Johnson is building an offense based on short passes due to Williams' deficiencies. That would be great for Burden.
Pick 2.04 – Tre Harris (WR – LAC)
Harris checks pretty much all the boxes except for athleticism and contested target rate. I was a huge Harris fan before, but I've cooled off to him considerably due to excellent analysis from football film analyst Brett Whitefield. Harris' poor athleticism limits his ability to manipulate defensive backs.
Tre Harris truthers LOOK AWAY! 👀@BGWhitefield delivers a BRUTAL comp for the Ole Miss WR and @ScottBarrettDFB puts the final nail in the coffin on today's edition of Film vs. Analytics! ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/NKmiRb83TN
— Fantasy Points (@FantasyPts) March 31, 2025
The landing spot is really awesome, though, so you have to give him a bit of a boost for that. Well, mostly. Of course, we already talked about how trash the Chargers' offensive coordinator is. But Justin Herbert is a good quarterback, and the team desperately needed another feasible wide receiver in 2024. Harris is an upgrade over Quentin Johnston.
So Harris should be fine, but I don't see elite upside.
Pick 2.05 – Bhayshul Tuten (RB – JAX)
Well, maybe my incessant gassing up of Tuten is working after all. Talk on social media platforms has mostly centered around Tuten's fumbling issues. Those are a concern, but so are those of Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams, yet he's been a workhorse back for two seasons in a row. Tuten is a transcendent talent at running back.
Just another reminder:
-Bhayshul Tuten is faster than Jahmyr Gibbs
-Running backs who can return kickoffs for long touchdowns are pretty damn good athletes
-You should draft Bhayshul Tuten pic.twitter.com/RKzsbc4QpE— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 19, 2025
I guess I'll keep hammering X with positive Tuten posts. I don't think I've even raved about him enough at this point. Notably, he grades favorably on A-gap runs -- in the past two seasons, he's forced a higher rate of missed tackles and created more explosive plays on such runs than Jeanty.
Bhayshul Tuten is elusive all around but was notably productive up the middle at VT pic.twitter.com/Urax9F1lfV
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) May 14, 2025
Draft him everywhere you can. I've been saying he's worth a first-round pick in rookie drafts for months now. It looks like he might even sneak there soon. Don't be shy about picking him there. I'd gladly take him over Henderson, who is not good at playing through contact.
Pick 2.06 – Colston Loveland (TE – CHI)
Loveland is an elite tight end prospect. That's why he was taken over Warren in the 2025 NFL Draft, who was supposed to be the elite tight end prospect of this year's draft class. But Loveland will face competition in Odunze, Moore, and Burden for targets.
A 6'4" WR weighing 210-220 pounds would be praised for this route. Colston Loveland is running it at 6'6" and 245 pounds. Ridiculous pic.twitter.com/un8ozAKPlj
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 25, 2025
I think he's going a bit too low here. Long term, he has monster potential -- if Williams can make big strides. If not, I worry.
Pick 2.07 – Kyle Williams (WR – NE)
Williams' tape seems way too good to me for him to be going this late. I have him projected as taking over the WR1 job for the Patriots in very short order. He has a fabulous release package, great acceleration and long speed, and excellent instincts for making downfield catches. He's also a monster yards-after-catch threat.
We saw flashes from Patriots quarterback Drake Maye last year. This year, he'll have some real receivers and hopefully an upgraded offensive line. It's a steal to get Williams this late.
Pick 2.08 – Jaydon Blue (RB – DAL)
Blue is a great pass-catcher and route-runner for a running back. He also has blazing speed, evidenced by his 4.38-second official 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Combine. But he's very raw. He's young, so he has plenty of developing to do, but drafting him could be a slow burn, though the receiving upside will certainly help in PPR leagues.
Pick 2.09 – Jack Bech (WR – LV)
We might have to be a bit more patient for a potential Bech breakout. He's got great hands and is fantastic after the catch. He's also a good blocker. But apparently, Las Vegas is more interested in keeping Dont'e Thornton Jr. on the field as much as possible. He's tall and fast, I guess. Bech could struggle to see playing time early in Year 1.
On film, he's not the best separator, so long term, he'll need a quarterback who's willing and able to fit the ball into tight windows for him. QB Geno Smith is willing, so that helps.
Pick 2.10 – Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG)
Dart is this year's QB1 in my eyes, so you're getting a pretty great value here. He's very young, has a cerebral understanding of the game, is an underrated athlete, and plays well under pressure -- which is absolutely vital. Neither Shedeur Sanders nor the aforementioned Ward do. Russell Wilson is a terrible quarterback for WR Malik Nabers.
That last point means Dart should start by around midseason, if my analysis holds up. But don't hold your breath. The Giants have a horrifically tough schedule. Dart also needs time to develop. Draft him and be patient.
Pick 2.11 – Jaylin Noel (WR – HOU)
I absolutely love Noel as a player. He's an elite athlete with great strength. He can crush press coverage and dice through zone with his speed. He's a fantastic jump-ball artist and has great hands. He attacks the ball well. He just has a ton of target competition. But I wouldn't be surprised if he's the team's clear WR2 before long.
He could have a massively valuable slot role by 2026. He's a great pick here.
Pick 2.12 – Pat Bryant (WR – DEN)
Another big-bodied, not-super-fast receiver to pair with Broncos WR1 Courtland Sutton is interesting. Athletically and on film, the two were actually pretty similar in college. Bryant will be stuck to QB Bo Nix, who had a nice rookie season, and head coach Payton -- and we know how good Payton is.
Bryant is worth a shot here based on the situation alone. He has nice size and strength, and the Marvin Mims experiment appears to have failed, so it seems like Bryant could take over as the team's WR2 pronto.
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