RADIO
“Who To Keep?”
It's a question which agonizes fantasy owners each year. No matter how experienced you are, it's never an easy one.
A sound keeper strategy is just as important to contending in your league as any first round pick. Moreover, making a mistake at this part of the game can set your team back more than just one season. Luckily, this article should help you avoid that unfortunate fate.
Just to keep things simple for this discussion, I’ll be assuming a standard 10-team league in which keeper costs will be defined as the round in which a player was originally selected. For example, in this format keeping Miguel Cabrera would cost a fantasy owner his first round pick in the upcoming draft. Fairly standard stuff, but the basic principles can be applied to a wide variety of leagues, so don't fear if you play in something a bit more exotic.
Rule #1: Numbers Not Names
The biggest mistake a fantasy owner will often make when selecting their keepers is to go for a name-brand player just because the name carries a certain sense of safety. What these owners forget is that fantasy leagues are won through production, not reputation. This expected production should be all that matters. Don't keep Clayton Kershaw because he's the face of a franchise and a MVP. Keep him because your projections say he'll be the best pitcher in the game this season.
This rule is especially important when looking at players entering the decline phase of their careers. Focusing on what a player is expected to do going forward rather than his reputation is your best chance of avoiding the many Josh Hamilton's of the world.
Rule #2: Focus on Value
Jose Abreu at the cost of a 12th round pick is a better keeper than Mike Trout at the cost of a first round pick. It sounds insane to advocate letting go of Trout, but if you could only pick one guy in this scenario, he's the one you ought to drop. This is because the overall team you could expect to draft by keeping Abreu is far and away better than the team you could draft by keeping Trout.
Perhaps an example is in order. Suppose you have the fifth overall pick in the draft, a pick you'd have to surrender if you kept Trout. According to current ADP trends, here are the teams you could reasonably expect to draft in either case:
Scenario 1: Keep Trout
Round 1: Trout
Round 12: Ryan Zimmerman
Scenario 2: Keep Abreu
Round 1: Paul Goldschmidt
Round 12: Abreu
It's worth remembering that having a strong overall team is more important than having one great player. Opportunity cost is the name of the game during this time of year. You should choose your keepers with this in mind. Mike Trout may be the best player in the game, but if you can build a better team without him, even he can be expendable.
Rule #3: Eye Your Opponents
Knowing the likely keeper preferences of your fellow owners is key in a keeper league. If you look around your league and realize there's a very high chance that the top 10 starting pitchers in the game are likely to be kept, this adds to the value of a player like Carlos Carrasco. Keeper selections can have dramatic influence on things like position and category scarcity. While it's important to not overvalue your own players as a result of these swings, keeping them in mind will serve you well in making keeper decisions.
A Final Note
Still have some questions about keeper strategy? Feel free to leave me a question in the comments. I'm always happy to talk.
