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Nick Federline's NCAA college basketball betting picks for Wednesday, March 4th, 2020. He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
Happy March! In this article every week, we'll be reviewing some of the top college basketball games of the day to see how we can beat Vegas. Today's slate of games is the first edition that includes conference tournament games.
Today brings a new opportunity to start fresh from the difficult Saturday we endured. A 1-4 record on Saturday could have been a lot better had Iona not squandered a sizeable lead in regulation, Delaware brought the fire a bit earlier than the second half they went on, and Belmont kept the pedal on the metal after a strong first half.
Here are some of the top college basketball expert betting picks for Wednesday, March 4. Let me know your thoughts, and follow me on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time.
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Saint Francis-Brooklyn @ Robert Morris - 7:00 pm
The Saint Francis-Brooklyn Terriers were able to notch a road win over middling Central Connecticut State to enter the Northeast Conference (NEC) Tournament on a positive note. Prior to that win, the Terriers had lost three straight and have a sub-.500 record against-the-spread in conference play. The Terriers have a dismal 4-12 record on the road and appear likely to wrap up their 2019-2020 season tonight in Moon.
After ending up on the wrong side of Robert Morris's top-seed clinching victory over Saint Francis-PA last week, a return to Moon, Pennsylvania, is in order. The Colonials leaned on strong performances by its trio of seniors, led by guard Josh Williams, en route to an easy and convincing victory over Saint Francis-PA. Now faced with a game against the "other" Saint Francis, Robert Morris will seek to replicate its January thrashing of the Terriers, a convincing 26 point win.
Pick: Robert Morris -8.5
Florida @ Georgia - 7:00 pm
The Florida Gators are still technically on the bubble following a road loss to Tennessee but can solidify their seeding with a win at Georgia. The Gators won the first matchup between these teams, a 6-point affair in Gainesville, and have shown growth since that game. While forward Kerry Blackshear continues to be a focal point for opposing defenses, sophomore guards Andrew Nembhard and Keyontae Johnson have shined. Florida will be motivated to improve its seeding and to be best prepared for a season-ending home game against conference-leading Kentucky.
Coach Tom Crean is in his second season in charge, and his Bulldogs have stumbled to a 15-14 record. Freshman guard Anthony Edwards, who was a consensus top-5 recruit, has starred on his way to a likely top-5 draft position in this summer's NBA draft. Edwards teamed with guard Sahvir Wheeler and forward Christian Brown to give Georgia a highly regarded freshman class that has endured its share of growing pains. Georgia does have quality wins at Memphis and versus Arkansas but has largely been overmatched in Southeast Conference (SEC) play. The most significant issue for the Bulldogs has been a poor defense, allowing an average of 75.6 points per game (ppg), ranking 315th in the nation.
Pick: Florida -2.5
Jacksonville State vs. Eastern Illinois - 8:30 pm
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks find themselves in unfamiliar territory entering the first round of the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) Tournament. After having to replace four starters, the Gamecocks took a step back to a 13-18 record this season against an especially weak schedule that was ranked as the 309th most difficult schedule in the country. Jacksonville State failed to cover in 8 of its final 10 games of the regular season.
For the second consecutive season, the Panthers enter the OVC Tournament as the #6 seed. Eastern Illinois won its final four regular-season games and enters the tournament in hopes of securing its first automatic bid since the memorable 2000-2001 season. Coach Jay Spoonhour is in his 8th season in charge of the Panthers, and has relied on a relatively young team whose typical starting five will all return next season. The star of the show is junior guard Josiah Wallace who can put up points in a hurry. Wallace has scored at least 20 points in 7 of the last 8 games to finish the season, and he'll be needed tonight to keep the Panthers' postseason hopes alive.
Pick: Eastern Illinois -2.5
Virginia @ Miami - 9:00 pm
Coach Tony Bennett's Virginia Cavaliers can finally breathe easy as their at-large spot seems assured in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. The Hoos are allowing only 52.6 ppg, ranking first in the nation. Virginia also ranks dead last in the country in the number of possessions per game with 62.4 possessions per game. By limiting their opponent's chances and playing suffocating defense, the defending champions have worked their way to a 21-7 record and a likely fourth-place finish in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). If Virginia is to make a run to defend its title this season, the lion's share of responsibilities will be shared by diminutive 5-foot-9 point guard Kihei Clark and senior forward Mamadi Diakite, who both played key supporting roles in last year's national championship.
The Miami Hurricanes are in the midst of a season that Coach Jim Larranaga would probably love to forget. The Hurricanes have 14 wins against 14 losses and have been plagued by a porous defense and inconsistent rebounding. Coach Larranaga has begun to ease his young players into the gameplan more lately with mixed results. Freshman Isaiah Wong is arguably the highlight of the season for Miami, as he has emerged as a solid contributor that could develop into an all-ACC performer if provided a decent supporting cast.
Pick: Under 120 points
Pitt @ Georgia Tech - 9:00 pm
The Pitt Panthers have undergone yet another difficult season, albeit expected, in the ACC, but have a young cast of players that could surge this team to success sooner than later. For much of the season, Coach Jeff Capel's team has struggled to score but managed to garner some solid wins by playing stout defense. While the Panthers have dropped six straight, there were strong signs of an offensive resurgence in their last time out at North Carolina State. The trio of sophomore guards Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens and Au'Diese Toney have flashed stardom at different times and all have the ability to grow into all-ACC players in their final 2 years of college basketball. In addition to that trio, freshman forward Justin Champagnie, whose twin brother Julian is a freshman at Saint John's, has been the team's leading scorer and rebounder in a surprising breakout freshman season. Coach Capel a solid core of players, and with a strong 2020 recruiting class incoming should have the Panthers in the heat of contention for the 2020-2021 season.
Coach Josh Pastner's Yellow Jackets have won four of their last five as they attempt to close out the 2019-2020 regular season on a strong note. Georgia Tech has defended their home court well, including an upset victory over Louisville in mid-February and knocking off resurgent Clemson just over a week ago. Sophomore guard Michael Devoe has been a breakout star and has teamed with junior forward Moses Wright and junior guard Jose Alvarado to form a fearsome trio. Past that trio, Georgia Tech has struggled to find consistency from its role players. One of the keys to Georgia Tech's success this year has been its ability to restrict its opponents from beyond the arc by allowing opponents to a mere 28% 3-point field goal percentage. With much of their core returning next season, Georgia Tech will be a team to monitor strongly this offseason.
Pick: Under 130
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
