RADIO
With the NFL Combine in our rearview mirror, now is a logical time to put out an up-to-date rankings for this year’s NFL Draft. Below, you will find my top-50 players who have declared for this NFL Draft. Below those ranks, you will also find several fantasy-relevant notes I have on this class, and on how this class is being analyzed or treated right now. I believe there are some misnomers and common mistakes being made.
Before we get to my ranks, let’s briefly discuss the NFL Combine. That event is widely overvalued by fans, analysts, and even some NFL teams. It’s why players like John Ross and Mike Mamula get over-drafted. The Combine has uses. It serves as a tiebreaker between closely ranked prospects. It can also help signal flaws you didn’t know were there or answer concerns. It shouldn’t jump someone up a full round, though.
One other thing worth mentioning before we get to my rankings. The below rankings are not where I expect every player to be drafted. They are simply where I have each player ranked in terms of quality as a prospect. A variety of things go into these ranks, including the polish, upside, risk, and reward of each player. I may value the high floor I see in Troy Fautanu more than most do, for example.
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Top 50 Prospects
1. Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Williams has the potential to be a special playmaker in the NFL. He is not Patrick Mahomes, but his ability to make plays off-schedule and improvise is "Mahomesian." This year, Williams had to create a lot of his own plays due to broken blocks and inconsistent receiver separation. He regularly extended plays, picked up first downs with his legs, and completed miraculous off-balance deep balls.
Williams has his flaws. He can bail on the pocket too early, and he routinely comes off as a bit of a prima donna, so there are concerns about his focus. That said, Williams can get premium velocity and distance from multiple arm angles, is an above-average scrambler, and has a history of elevating those around him.
Will Caleb Williams live up to the hype in the NFL? pic.twitter.com/MvIpdDdmtb
— Football Reels 📽 (@TheFBReels) March 7, 2024
2. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
If one rookie in this draft were to become the best at his position in the NFL, odds favor it being Marvin Harrison Jr. He has size, speed, route acumen, and character that are all top tier. He isn’t the fastest in this class and did have some focus drops this year, but his dominance over elite defenses like Georgia earns him a similar draft grade to what I gave Larry Fitzgerald coming out of Pitt.
3. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
There are shades of Antonio Brown in Nabers' film. While it may concern some that most of his snaps came out of the slot, he made plays all over the field. He is far from the biggest receiver in this class, and some have stronger hands. No one in this class can match Nabers' ability to take a slant the distance or make something out of nothing, though.
4. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
While I'm not the first to compare Drake Maye to Justin Herbert, it's hard to stop. The size, arm strength, composure, running style, and stature are all eerily similar. While Maye had several inexplicably bad throws this year with no mechanical or logical reason for why they happened, he is the best at throwing over the middle and throws with the most velocity in this class.
5. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Odunze has the best hands of any pass-catcher in this year’s group. He is a big-bodied receiver with quick feet, good lateral agility, and deceptive deep speed. Odunze high points the ball extremely well, is physical before and after the catch, and finds gaps in zone coverage. While he doesn’t get wide open very often, his ability to make contested catches means that shouldn’t matter.
Rome Odunze showing good tempo off the line almost playing cat and mouse, then gets the defender to turn his hips inside with a jab step, then fluidly jumps outside for the easy catch for the touchdown. SILKY. pic.twitter.com/JnAyhnKrcz
— Jeremy (@PopesFFH) March 12, 2024
6. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Joe Alt doesn’t have the highest ceiling in this offensive line class, but he is one of the youngest blockers in his position group and easily has the highest floor. This NFL legacy is sturdy in run support, plays with quick feet in pass sets, has a long projectable frame, and his blitz recognition is tremendous. Alt is also versatile, showing the ability to play either side of the line and in either gap or zone schemes.
7. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Bowers is exactly what you want from the tight end position in today’s NFL. He’s a polished route runner who builds separation out of his breaks, powers through contact, has strong hands, and has plus acceleration for his size. In short, the Georgia product is an elite possession receiver who will move the chains and dominate in the red zone while offering slightly below-average blocking.
8. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
As a runner, Jayden Daniels has elite top-end speed and a variety of moves to lose defenders in the open field. As a passer, he makes good pre-snap reads, goes through his progressions, sees the whole field, and throws with anticipation. Daniels doesn’t default to his legs when there’s the option to hang in the pocket and throw, either. He also shows good lower body platform and balance as a passer.
While the Heisman winner is a tremendous talent, he isn’t flawless. His slight build could get him in trouble, given how often he takes on contact as a runner. Worse, the zip he puts on balls is often underwhelming. His throws into tight coverage tended to hang, and his passes outside the numbers weren't always crisp or quick.
9. Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Troy Fautanu is the second-cleanest tackle in this class, just behind Alt, largely thanks to his impeccable footwork, strong blitz recognition, and good angles. He surrendered just two pressures in his three games against Michigan, Texas, and Utah. In short, he just didn’t give up many big plays despite playing some stout defenses.
Fautanu has been labeled a guard by many, but his arm length and footwork are both good enough to stay at tackle. I’m planting my flag on Fautanu as my guy in this class. He could be a top-10 pick and shouldn’t fall outside the first 20 selections.
Troy Fatanu Pass Pro Drop #NFLCombine2024 pic.twitter.com/BNbyNMUUHA
— WalkTheMock (@WalkTheMock) March 3, 2024
10. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Mitchell has tremendous recognition skills when playing off coverage, and he has the best ball skills of a talented cornerback class. His performance at the Senior Bowl made him a first-round lock, and the Combine pushed him ahead of Terrion Arnold as my top cornerback in a tight group at the top.
11. BrIan Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Thomas Jr. answered any questions some had about his straight-line speed at the Combine, using his long strides and elite get-off to tie for the third-fastest 40-yard dash in Indy. He’s also one of the longest players in this class, exhibits tremendous release off the snap, and tracks the deep ball very well. There’s been a lot of debate about who the WR4 is in this class, but it’s always been Thomas.
12. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Arnold ran a disappointing 40-yard dash in Indy, but he plays faster than his 4.50 time suggests. His press and man coverage skills shouldn’t be impacted by any lack of straight-line speed, which he doesn’t seem to lack on film. Arnold is fluid and efficient in shadow coverage, aided by his ability to read routes and change direction on a dime. Plus, he is a strong tackler for his size.
13. Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Turner's 2022 film was underwhelming, and he doesn't manhandle offensive tackles like Jared Verse does. However, the Alabama product's 2023 film was impressive and showed he could excel at many things. He can cover, play standing up and down, bend the edge, and get under a blocker's pads to drive him off the ball.
Turner's Combine measurables were terrific. He was tops at his position in the 40-yard dash and vertical jump while finishing second in the 10-yard split. These scores just told us what we already knew, however. He's a long, fast, and twitchy edge who put up enough consistent film to finally jump Verse in my rankings.
14. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
Opinions on Verse seem to vary widely. Some have him as a late first-round option, others as a top-15 lock. One reason may be that he's less scheme-versatile than guys like Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu.
Verse is an absolute wrecking ball when he is locked in. With a dominant punch, strong and active hands, a quick get-off, and a high motor, this kid is an absolute handful as a power rusher. Some may prefer more finesse or speed from an edge they draft highly, but Verse showed the ability to be dominant while pushing guards and tackles back into the pocket.
Jared Verse hello😳💪🏾💪🏾 pic.twitter.com/dPAud2inmD
— RaHIM Morris🥷🏾 (@HimJ1122) March 5, 2024
15. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Guyton is in competition with Olu Fashanu for the highest-upside tackle in this class, but I have Guyton ahead because of his motor and power. Both Guyton and Fashanu are relatively new to football and show it in different ways, with Guyton lunging off balance and making the wrong read in blitz pickup. However, the Sooner has elite size, strength, and agility.
16. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
On tape, Fashanu absorbs power into his long frame, is light on his feet, and will drive defenders off the ball when he gets leverage. He has immense pass-blocking upside. However, his film against Ohio State wasn't great, and his run blocking is below average at this stage of the game. Throw in disappointing numbers at the Combine, and Fashanu becomes a boom-or-bust tackle prospect.
17. Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Taliese Fuaga is strictly a right tackle, but what a right tackle he is. He has a huge frame that moves surprisingly well, considering the mass behind it. The former Beaver also plays with tremendous power, regularly planting defenders on their backs. While his arms are on the shorter side and he lacks great flexibility, Fuaga moves well enough to get to the second level and maintain the corner.
18. Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Latu is a long stand-up edge with a diverse repertoire of pass-rush moves. He has good instincts and attacks each down with a quality pass-rush plan. He isn't an elite athlete, though. His burst and top-end speed are below average for a first-round edge, plus he was medically retired at one point. Despite all that, he led college football in pass rush win rate in 2023.
19. Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa
DeJean is a versatile player with experience at safety, cornerback, and returning kicks. He was excellent at all these things, returning three picks for touchdowns in 2022. While an injury from 2023 could drop him down some boards, the Hawkeye showed good instincts while playing with his back to the sideline and is a plus blitzer who wraps up and drags ball carriers down.
20. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Mims doesn't have much film to watch, given that he only started eight games in college. However, what film he does have offers a lot of promise. Mims has a big projectable frame with surprising movement skills for his size. The raw Bulldog can sink and anchor against power, rarely lunges or takes bad angles, and has the ideal length for his position. He does tend to get lost in space, though.
21. Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
The arrow is pointing up on Murphy II, partly because he is the best of a shallow defensive tackle class. He edges out Jer’Zhan Newton because he is stronger in run support and has more length. Murphy is quick out of his stance, pushes the pocket back 10 feet, and has good lower-body strength. He ended an overtime win against Kansas State by running his blocker right into the passer.
22. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
A blazing 40-yard dash time of 4.28 seconds was a nice start to Wiggins’ Combine. However, he also showed up underweight and injured himself on that blazing run. Wiggins’ speed translates on film, though. His change of direction is better on tape than his 10-yard split suggests, too. Plus, Wiggins plays the ball and is a capable tackler for someone his size.
23. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
I seem to be higher on McConkey than anyone else. The kid flies in and out of his breaks on film, exhibiting the ability to stop and go in the same breath. He also exhibited deeper speed than most gave him credit for, which is why his 4.39 time on the 40 didn't surprise me. If McConkey can add a bit of muscle without losing speed, he has Cooper Kupp-level upside.
Ladd McConkey posted better agility times than Cooper Kupp 👀
3-Cone:
- Ladd: 6.72
- Kupp: 6.75Short shuttle:
- Ladd: 4.04
- Kupp: 4.08pic.twitter.com/vuSX7ZqAxZ https://t.co/5mgtDUEU1Y
— Jordan Pun (@Texans_Thoughts) March 13, 2024
24. JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Another pure right tackle with a massive frame, Latham plays with a lot of power and is a good anchor in run support. He isn’t a premium athlete or mover, and his feet are a bit slow, though. Latham took a big hit against Michigan, which has some questioning his profile, but his film suggests that was an outlier. He is a mid-first prospect pushed down by a deep tackle class.
25. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
The negatives with McCarthy are clear. The offense at Michigan ran through Blake Corum and the run game, not its quarterback. He was never asked to carry the team or do too much, so some question if he can. He also has a light build, throws into double coverage too often, and can get off to a slow start. His game against Alabama was like melting ice.
That said, McCarthy’s film grows on you the deeper you dive into it. He has a quick and compact release, is elusive in the pocket, has quick feet, good balance, and throws with plus velocity. Two of his throws against Ohio State were absolute ropes between defenders. McCarthy is an inconsistent prospect with flaws, but he has upside at the most important position in sports.
26. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
Powers-Johnson has a thick, powerful upper body that catches defenders and holds them in a net. His excellent balance and core strength allow him to bend but not break in the face of powerful interior rushers. The hyphenate also does a good job of twisting defenders out of running lanes.
27. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Mitchell’s film suggests his motor and hands are inconsistent. He seems to give up on some routes when the ball doesn't look like it's coming his way, and he cradles the ball more than he high-points or snags it with his hands. He also managed just 33 yards in a big loss to OU. That said, he has good size, is a good route runner, and he had the best overall Combine of any receiver.
Adonai Mitchell coming off the line with purpose + power & then showing some athleticism after the catch
— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) March 6, 2024
28. Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
Cooper is an aggressive playmaker, meaning he isn't so much a classic inside linebacker as a hybrid attacker. His best fit may be as a playmaking edge and a spy. He is a long and reckless athlete who excels as a pass-rusher thanks to pure speed and throws himself around like a ragdoll. He is particularly effective in spying and containing mobile passers.
29. Graham Barton, OL, Duke
A player with experience at both center and tackle, Barton does not have the ideal arm length, and he occasionally finds himself out of position when left on an island. For those reasons, he will likely move inside to guard or center at the next level. He shows good drive and strong hands in run support, and he moves to the next level with fluidity.
Graham Barton moves man from point A to point B against his will pic.twitter.com/Uhim5GCe8R
— Mike Golic Jr (@mikegolicjr) March 12, 2024
30. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Penix Jr. is an older prospect with two torn ACLs on his resume. He was banged up this past year and was also off-target or out of sync with his receivers on several negative plays. That said, he has one of the strongest arms in this class, is a proven winner, and can create plays with his legs. NFL teams will value his ability to elevate Washington’s football program.
31. Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
There is no getting around the fact Coleman disappointed at the Combine, particularly by finishing second-to-last at his position with a 4.61 40-yard dash. He plays faster than he did during that time on film, though. He also shows stronger hands and contested catch ability than Adonai Mitchell, Troy Franklin, and Xavier Worthy. I’ll trust the tape on this one.
32. Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
Rakestraw Jr. is a feisty and aggressive corner who is good in press coverage. He is also one of this cornerback group's best blitzers and tacklers. The Missouri product plays with good balance, reads quarterbacks well, and punches the ball out regularly. The primary concern with Rakestraw is that he doesn't get interceptions. He had just one pick in 35 games with the Tigers.
33. Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State
Robinson is the type of prospect I usually pass on. He is a light, unpolished, and underproductive edge who isn't strong in run support. However, I rank Robinson significantly ahead of where I had guys like K’Lavon Chaisson, Odafe Oweh, and Barkevious Mingo for one reason. That reason is Robinson's first step is like lightning. He explodes off the ball like few ever have.
Chop Robinson has some crazy burst off the line of scrimmage. He just put down his right hand on the ground and then accelerated as soon as the ball was snapped and destroyed the QB.
Unreal. pic.twitter.com/wcJql0873p
— Nicholas Moreano (@NicholasMoreano) March 13, 2024
34. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The walking fruit punch is an average athlete, lacking true makeup speed and pop in press. He is an instinctive player with decent ball skills and fluid hips. He is best suited for a zone scheme where he can keep things in front of him and read the route/quarterback from afar.
35. Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
Robinson is a converted defensive tackle who relies mostly on a powerful bull rush and strong hands that can yank offensive tackles out of his way. He utilizes multiple pass-rush moves as well, including the push/pull, a club move, and a long swim move. He was productive in the SEC and at the Senior Bowl.
36. Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
Newton's arms are on the short side, he loses himself too often against the run, and he plays a bit stiff. However, he is also a productive pass-rusher and the reigning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, thanks to his ability to jolt offensive linemen off the snap and bait tackles out of position. He's a savvy interior pass-rusher who should go in the second round.
37. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
Franklin is a tall and fast receiver who knows how to make defenders miss. His frame is thin, but he has the size to add muscle. He gets good separation at the tops of his routes and on go-routes. However, his hands are some of the most inconsistent in the class. He dropped nine balls in 2023, and PFF rated him the 695th-best WR in their DROP grade.
Troy Franklin is my WR3. First Round Talent.
Full Scouting Report Below:https://t.co/EC1G9RbyF2
pic.twitter.com/N11s5p1Fbn— • Colton Edwards • (@cedwardsNFL) March 13, 2024
38. Payton Wilson, LB, North Carolina State
Wilson is another interior linebacker in this class whose game may translate better to the outside in the NFL. He's a top-tier athlete, finishing as the fastest linebacker at the Combine in the 40-yard dash and 10-yard split. Wilson also has good length and excellent lateral agility. He can cover, rush the passer, and collect tackles. His injury history is the only question mark.
39. Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Worthy’s record-breaking 40-yard dash might make him a first-round pick. That could be a risky investment if the team taking him expects a true WR1, though. Worthy is an elite weapon whose scary speed shows up on film, along with a killer release off the line and an ability to create space after the catch. His lack of size and inconsistent hands could limit him to being a dangerous role player, though.
40. Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota
Nubin and Kamren Kinchens were neck-and-neck for me as the top safety in this class, but Kinchens’ poor Combine showing pushed Nubin comfortably ahead. The Golden Gopher collected 13 interceptions over the past four years, displaying the instinct to jump in-breaking routes. He also allowed a meager 30% completion rate when he was the closest man in coverage in 2023.
41. Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
Lassiter was the Bulldogs' lead corner this season, often shadowing an opponent's top receiver. Opponents respected him, sending just 36 targets his way all season. He reciprocated by allowing a mere 14 catches in 12 games. Lassiter was an efficient, if not punishing, tackler, too. He whiffed on just three takedowns this year.
42. Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona
Morgan is a good athlete on film, but he struggles with blitz recognition and knowing when to hand off double teams to grab the free rusher. He also whiffs too often on pulls and second-level blocks. That said, his flaws don't have to do with his athleticism. Morgan finished fifth among offensive linemen in the 10-yard split and notched a solid 5.04-second 40-yard dash at the Combine.
#Arizona OT Jordan Morgan. 6’5 311.
• Quick feet + solid, consistent base.
• Redirect ability ++.
• Good angles in run game. Cutoffs/screens.
• Strong hands & grip strength.
• Mixes sets in pass pro ++.
• Potential to kick inside to G. pic.twitter.com/vq3Jf9RMBj— Kyron Samuels (@kyronsamuels) March 6, 2024
43. Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia
Frazier has a thick build and a ton of upper body strength, which allows him to pop defenders back with strong hands and throw them to the ground on down blocks. He can be a bit of a hugger and misses on hand placement at times, but he’s a consistent veteran who surrendered just seven total quarterback pressures in 2023.
44. Chris Braswell, EDGE, Alabama
The Senior Bowl was not an ideal showing for Braswell, who struggled against some of the better blockers in the class. However, he plays with above-average speed and good balance on film. Braswell also has solid change-of-direction speed and a hot motor, and he creates spacing with long arms. His bend isn't great, but he won nearly 20% of his pass-rush reps.
45. T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas
This is one behemoth of a man. While he weighed lighter in Indy, he sometimes looks like he is tipping the scales at 380 pounds. That helps make him immovable in run support, especially since he knows how to use his weight to generate momentum and power. He's also effective at collapsing the pocket on passing downs. He's just rarely going to see more than 50% of his team's snaps.
46. Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State
Fiske’s Combine performance was shocking, as he put in one of the best overall shows of any defensive tackle in this class. He uses technique to compensate for short arms, allowing his quick burst off the ball to translate into pressures and sacks. He doesn’t always play with the power he is capable of, though.
47. Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky
The self-titled "YAC King" is what you would expect. He takes short passes and makes more out of them. He earns some unfair comparisons to Deebo Samuel because of his ability to turn into a running back after the catch and bowl through tacklers. His route tree was limited at Western Kentucky, so there could be a learning curve.
A guy that has huge upside in the #NFL Draft & could be a target for the #Steelers in the 3rd is Malachi Corley.
- Has the stamp of approval from Steve Smith Sr.
- Physical runner after the catch, very hard to bring down
- Get away speed
- able to create separation each play… pic.twitter.com/s0OpZsAtIB— Trey Carney (@CarneyMedia) March 6, 2024
48. Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas
Sanders disappointed a bit at the Combine, testing middle or bottom of the pack in several key categories. This may concern some since Sanders' biggest selling point is his ability to make athletic catches and outrun linebackers in coverage. Sanders wasn't often relied on as a blocker, but his ability to make one-handed catches and get open is good enough to make him the TE2 in this group.
49. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Nix is a polished and experienced quarterback. He's also an above-average athlete and runner. His ball placement improved significantly when he transferred to Oregon, as did his understanding and reading of defenses. He has just average arm strength, though, both in velocity and the ability to lob it deep. His placement on deep balls has been inconsistent during the draft process, too.
50. Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami
Kinchens had an abysmal Combine, running a pedestrian 4.65-second 40-yard dash. However, he doesn't look that slow in film, which is good given that he is a playmaking deep safety who needs makeup speed. Kinchens is still a wrecking ball on film, with good hands and good tackling, and he played all over the formation. I can't drop him too far, even with bad testing numbers.
NFL Draft-Related Fantasy Football Notes
Caution on Combine... Again: I've said it before, and I'll say it again: The Combine will impact player stock more than it should, both for scouts and fans. That's why you're seeing people say Xavier Worthy could be a top-10 pick despite his limitations and the strength of this receiver group at the top. Worthy is a good player, but testing numbers should never wildly alter any player’s stock or drive him up dynasty boards.
However, there is one thing that could reasonably raise Worthy's fantasy stock to where some already have it (rookie WR5), and that's if the Chiefs draft him. Right now, the buzz has Worthy out of KC's range, but if they trade L'Jarius Sneed and pick No. 31 to the Jaguars for pick No. 17, then they could nab Worthy. If that were to happen, feel free to take him as WR5.
No Elite RBs: There isn't a single running back worth a first- or second-round pick in this year's NFL Draft. However, Jaylen Wright is my current top running back in the class. He is the most explosive back in this group and put together quality film against good defenses like Georgia. Trey Benson and Jonathon Brooks are close in my rankings, but neither played as fast nor showed Wright's upside.
Troy Franklin Doubts: Troy Franklin is the rookie WR4 on the boards of some prominent fantasy analysts, and I simply don't understand why. I’ve heard his name mentioned as a top-five position player for far too many fantasy analysts. This happens every year. Fantasy guys get enamored with a playmaker with iffy hands, like Treylon Burks and Quentin Johnston, and push them up far higher than most draft analysts have them.
Franklin is a fine player and a worthwhile investment late in the first round of most dynasty rookie drafts. He isn't the WR4 in this class, though, and he has no business going ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. I'm not taking him over Adonai Mitchell or Ladd McConkey, either.
Draft With Conviction: Dynasty and draft analysts will tell you to diversify if you’re in multiple leagues. They will rank guys highly but say they wouldn’t draft that guy super high in all of their leagues. Instead, they preach drafting their guy at their rank sometimes and someone else in others.
I believe this strategy is only if you have no faith in your rankings or ability to spot quality rookies. If you have enough conviction to rank rookies publicly, then you should have the conviction to draft them as you rank them. Maybe you’ll miss in a bunch of leagues, maybe you’ll hit in a bunch. However, drafting based on your grades and ranks is the smart move… if you’re actually confident in your ranks.
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