Top 25 Starting Pitchers - Dynasty Prospects Rankings

March 14, 2021

Marc Hulet's Top 25 starting pitcher dynasty prospect rankings for 2021 fantasy baseball leagues. He looks at the fantasy values of these MLB prospects and rookies.

Pitching is an important element of any successful Major League Baseball team — real or fantasy. Coming off a truncated season in 2020 and facing another unique season ahead, pitching prospects will be more important than ever in 2021. MLB managers will be faced with a full 2021 season and, after throwing reduced innings last year, most pitchers will be kept to limited pitch counts and fewer innings to protect them from injuries caused by significant year-over-year workload spikes.

Teams with significant upper-level minor league pitching depth — like the Dodgers, Tigers, Royals, and Marlins — stand to benefit (as do fantasy managers who own those young pitchers). The Tigers, Royals, and Marlins each have three high-level pitching prospects that are almost MLB ready along with additional arms further down the rankings. Although the Dodgers have only one pitcher listed below, Josiah Gray would likely already be in the Majors if he were pitching in another organization and not stuck behind Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May — all of whom are fighting for the No. 5 starter role.

Today, we're finishing off the series looking at the top dynasty prospects at each position entering the 2021 season. The final piece looks at the top pitching prospects in fantasy baseball and many of them are set to pitch significant innings at the MLB level in 2021. Upwards of nine pitchers among the first 10 could open the year in MLB starting rotations or arrive soon enough to be key fantasy contributors in 2021. You can read my previously-reviewed dynasty rankings here: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Outfield. Prospect eligibility for pitchers was determined to be less than 50 innings pitched at the MLB level. Service time was not taken into consideration.

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Tier 1

1. Nate Pearson, Blue Jays (TOP 250 Rank: 4)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Innings
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: The gap between the two top pitchers is not huge and Pearson gets the edge for his overall package of size, power, and control. He needs to work on his overall command — especially establishing his fastball for quality strikes — and there are some durability concerns here. Pearson has suffered through a number of minor injuries over the past couple of years which have taken a collective chunk out of his development time. With the ability to tickle triple digits and throw four average-or-better offerings, Pearson has the ceiling of a No. 1 starter if he can rediscover the consistent command/control he showed in the lower minors.

2. MacKenzie Gore, Padres  (TOP 250 Rank: 8)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Control
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Gore doesn’t have the same raw power that Nate Pearson possesses but he has a little more feel for pitching and possibly better command/control at this point. The lefty’s fastball is mostly 92-95 mph but it has good movement. Gore is a rare pitcher that projects to have four above-average or plus offerings. It’s important to be patient with this young hurler who is only 22-years-old. He has just 21.2 innings of experience above A-ball and spent the entire 2020 season at the alternate training site where he had an uneven performance. The Padres organization is loaded with starting pitching at the MLB level — especially after offseason acquisitions of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove — so the club can wait to promote Gore until he pushes his way in.

3. Ian Anderson, Braves  (TOP 250 Rank: 13)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Home run Suppression, Innings
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Anderson’s first taste of big-league action could not have gone much better. In six starts, he posted a strike rate just shy of 30% and held MLB hitters to a .172 batting average. Throwing four or five different pitches has become popular among young pitchers but Anderson keeps it simple with just a fastball, curveball, and changeup. He relies heavily on mixing all three with excellent separation in velocity. Despite the simple approach, he produced an elite barrel rate at 1.2% (league average is 6.4%) and held batters to a .233 xSLG. Along with his ability to miss bats, Anderson forces hitters to pound the ball into the ground as seen by his 53% ground-ball rate and one-homer allowed.

4. Matt Manning, Tigers  (TOP 250 Rank: 16)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Innings
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Both Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal reached the majors before Manning but he nonetheless has the slight edge in terms of overall ceiling. He’s long reminded me of a young Justin Verlander. Manning has excellent size (6-foot-6, 195 pounds) for a pitcher and a mid-to-high-90s fastball. He backs it up with a plus curveball and promising changeup. He also does a nice job of using his size to generate ground balls and should have above-average control in time. Manning may have arrived at the MLB level in 2021 with his fellow pitching prospects but he suffered a forearm strain at the alternate training site.

5. Casey Mize, Tigers  (TOP 250 Rank: 21)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Innings
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: There is no way to sugarcoat how poorly Mize pitched during his first taste of MLB action. He struggled to throw consistent strikes, allowed seven home runs in 28.1 innings, and posted a 6.99 ERA. He also allowed a barrel rate more than double the league average at 13.5% (vs 6.4%). Both his xSLG and xwOBA had bottom-of-the-league results in part because he spent too much time up in the zone with his offerings. He has an elite splitter but struggled to command his sinker and slider, both of which big-league hitters teed off on. Mize throws five different pitches and may be better off simplifying things like Ian Anderson and trimming down to three offerings — at least until he masters them.

6. Spencer Howard, Phillies (TOP 250 Rank: 22)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Hard to Hit
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Howard, like Casey Mize, struggled during his first taste of the big leagues although the underlying numbers hint at some bad luck with a 4.27 xERA (vs 5.92 actual) and .316 xwOBA (vs .376 actual). His fastball did OK in 2020 but the secondary offerings did not have much success. Once Howard is able to command his fastball more consistently, the secondary offerings should fare better because he has excellent variation in velocity between the different pitch types. The right-hander struggled through injury in 2020 and saw decreased fastball velocity. If he returns to his old form in 2021 (and stays healthy), he could be an elite arm but he also has a smaller track record of success than other top pitchers.    

7. Sixto Sanchez, Marlins (TOP 250 Rank: 24)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Home run Suppression, Control, Innings
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Sanchez had a very successful MLB debut in 2020 — especially when you compare him to other top arms that struggled. The biggest issue holding the Marlins pitcher down from being an elite fantasy arm is the lack of strikeouts. He does OK but Sanchez is more of a pitch-to-contact hurler (despite being able to tickle triple digits) that relies on a heavy fastball and elite ground-ball rates (58% in 2020). He held hitters to a 4.3-degree launch angle compared to the league average of 11.9. He also has very good control. To take his game to the next level, Sanchez needs to find a reliable breaking ball. His slider was creamed in 2020 but the curveball — the offering he used the least — showed some real promise with a 33% whiff rate.

8. Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles  (TOP 250 Rank: 26)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Innings
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: Rodriguez is a great sleeper pickup in fantasy because he has excellent stuff but is underrated because he pitches in the Baltimore Orioles system. He also hasn’t pitched above low-A ball. In 2019, he produced a 34% strikeout rate as a teenager. Now 21, Rodriguez stands 6-foot-5 (220 pounds) with a fastball that can occasionally hit triple digits and sits in the mid-to-upper 90s. He backs it up with two promising breaking balls and a changeup — all of which could eventually be average-or-better. Rodriguez looks like a future No. 2 starter who needs to gain experience facing upper-level hitters and polish his approach.   

9. Tarik Skubal, Tigers  (TOP 250 Rank: 27)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Innings
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Skubal had a couple of poor outings during his MLB debut in 2020 but otherwise pitched well. The biggest issue was the lack of fastball command which resulted in too many hittable pitches in the middle of the strike zone and led to nine home runs in 32 innings. Skubal has good stuff with a fastball that sits at 94 mph (98 mph peak) and a changeup with an 11 mph separation. He held hitters to a .185 average on his slider and also throws an occasional curveball to throw off hitters’ timing.

10. Triston McKenzie, Indians  (TOP 250 Rank: 29)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeout, Control, Hard to Hit
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: After missing a year-and-a-half due to injuries, McKenzie’s success at the MLB level was very promising. The tall right-hander received excellent results with his two breaking balls which helped him generate a 33% strikeout rate. His slider generated a 44% whiff rate and .130 batting average while his curveball generated a 34% whiff rate and .077 batting average. He also threw a lot of strikes. The most worrisome thing with McKenzie is that he was missing a couple of miles per hour off his average fastball velocity from before his injury issues. If he can find the missing velocity, he could be an elite pitcher.

Tier 2

11. Max Meyer, Marlins  (TOP 250 Rank: 32)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Hard to Hit
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: Meyer was neck-and-neck with Asa Lacy as the best pitcher available in the 2020 amateur draft despite some reliever risk. The Marlins hurler is on the short side with the lack of a reliable third pitch but he can hit triple digits with his fastball and has a plus slider. He’s driven and competitive so I think he’ll figure it out and realize his full potential as a starter.

12. Asa Lacy, Royals  (TOP 250 Rank: 35)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Innings
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: Considered by some to be the top arm in the 2020 draft, Lacy has a strong pitcher’s frame, an upper-90s fastball, and a shot at four above-average offerings. He also has some deception to his delivery and at least average control. Lacy has No. 2 starter upside.

13. Daniel Lynch, Royals  (TOP 250 Rank: 36)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Control
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Lynch has had issues staying healthy but he has No. 2 pitcher upside. The lefty can work into the upper 90s with his heater and projects to have above-average command and control. Lynch has also shown flashes of having three plus offerings with a fourth that could be at least average.

14. Luis Patino, Rays  (TOP 250 Rank: 37)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Hard to Hit
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Patino had a rough start to his MLB career in 2020 but he was just 20 years old and pitching in an unfamiliar role. He’s not a huge pitcher but Patino can dial his heater up into the upper-90s. With a little more development time, he could also have three plus offerings. Traded from the Padres to the Rays in the offseason, he moved from one excellent development system to another.

15. Jackson Kowar, Royals  (TOP 250 Rank: 40)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Innings
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: The Royals really cleaned up with the 2018 draft when they acquired four promising college hurlers in Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Kowar. He has a 93-96 mph fastball and backs it up with a plus changeup and above-average control. An improved breaking ball could push Kowar’s ceiling from mid-rotation starter to potential No. 2 hurler.

16. Logan Gilbert, Mariners  (TOP 250 Rank: 44)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Control, Innings
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: One of my favorite college arms from the 2018 amateur draft, Gilbert isn’t a flame-thrower but he has a great pitcher’s frame, his heater gets up to 95 mph, and he has a shot at four above-average offerings. That combination could allow him to develop into a No. 2/3 starter for the Mariners and he should be ready for big-league action by this summer.

Tier 3

17. Brailyn Marquez, Cubs  (TOP 250 Rank: 49)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: You still have to dream a little bit on Marquez but he’s a big, strong left-hander that can hit 100-102 mph with his fastball and backs it up with a plus slider. He needs to round out his repertoire with a third reliable offering and work to consistently throw strikes but the upside is tremendous. If he cannot harness his control, he could find success as a high-leverage reliever.

18. Garrett Crochet, White Sox  (TOP 250 Rank: 51)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Hard to Hit
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Crochet will enter 2021 as a reliever for the White Sox but the hard-throwing left-hander should eventually move into a starting role. Just one year removed from playing college ball, his raw stuff can overpower big league hitters in short bursts but he needs to work on his command and control while also improving his changeup.

19. Edward Cabrera, Marlins  (TOP 250 Rank: 52)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Home Run Suppression
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: A power right-hander, Cabrera can work into the upper 90s with his heather and backs it up with a curveball that shows above-average potential. He also does an excellent job inducing ground-ball outs. There’s some reliever risk here but Cabrera has one of the highest ceilings in the Marlins system if everything clicks.

20. Matthew Liberatore, Cardinals  (TOP 250 Rank: 53)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Innings, Control, Home Run Suppression
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: Liberatore isn’t flashy but he’s a left-hander with a fastball in the 92-95 mph range and he has a chance for four better-than-average offerings. He also has a big, strong pitcher’s frame and could eventually have above-average control. He has mid-rotation potential.

21. Emerson Hancock, Mariners  (TOP 250 Rank: 54)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Innings
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: Hancock is a little bit further down the rankings for me because I don’t love his delivery and he lacks a plus breaking ball. The right-hander can get his fastball up to 96-97 mph and backs it up with a very good changeup. He’s more of a mid-rotation starter for me than an ace — although the Mariners think highly of him after drafting him sixth overall in 2020.

22. Hunter Greene, Reds  (TOP 250 Rank: 63)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts
ETA: 2022

Need to Know: Greene was well known for hitting 100 mph as an amateur in high school but he underwent Tommy John surgery just two years into his pro career. It’s been over two years since the hard-thrower has pitched in a competitive game and he spent last year at the alternate training site. Greene has effortless velocity and could eventually have at least average control but it’s still a work-in-progress at this point.

23. Quinn Priester, Pirates  (TOP 250 Rank: 64)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts, Home Run Suppression
ETA: 2023

Need to Know: Priester is quickly rising up the rankings after being selected 18th overall in the 2019 amateur draft. Known for having good makeup and maturity, he does not appear to have been hurt by the loss of a minor-league season in 2020. His fastball is now up to 97-98 mph with a potentially-plus curveball. He also showed promising ground-ball tendencies in his 2019 debut. Priester has No. 2/3 starter upside.

24. Shane McClanahan, Rays  (TOP 250 Rank: 66)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: McClanahan doesn’t get enough attention as a southpaw that can hit the upper-90s with his heater and is being developed in one of the best systems in baseball. His slider also has swing-and-miss potential as a plus offering. The changeup is useable and improving. McClanahan struggled with his control early in his pro career but saw a significant improvement in the second half of 2019 before minor league baseball was shutdown due to the pandemic. There is some reliever risk here but I think he’ll make it work as a starter.

25. Forrest Whitley, Astros  (TOP 250 Rank: 67)
Key Fantasy Skill(s): Strikeouts
ETA: 2021

Need to Know: Whitley has elite stuff but he remains down in the rankings due to durability concerns and poor maturity/makeup. The right-hander has already come down with a sore arm this spring after dealing with injuries in 2018, 2019, and 2020. It’s reported that he may have to undergo Tommy John surgery and he’s thrown just 86 competitive innings since the end of 2017. If things click, the Astros have something special here but he’s becoming more and more risky as time goes on which is never a promising trend.

Just Missed

• Jackson Rutledge, Nationals
• Josiah Gray, Dodgers
• Clarke Schmidt, Yankees
• Shane Baz, Rays
• George Kirby, Mariners

Three Names to Know: Chris Rodriguez (Angels), Bobby Miller (Dodgers), Luis Medina (Yankees)

These three pitchers are interesting for very different reasons. Rodriguez has the raw stuff to challenge just about any pitching prospect in baseball. He has three offerings with plus potential but he just can’t stay healthy. In five pro seasons, he’s thrown fewer than 80 innings in total and just 9.1 innings since 2017.

I was all over Miller during the 2020 amateur draft and had him ranked as a surefire first-round pick with at least mid-rotation potential due to his power repertoire. The Dodgers agreed and took him with the 29th overall pick. He reportedly looked great at the alternate training site and in the fall instructional league.

Medina has been on the radar for some time because of his ability to reach upwards of 103 mph with his fastball. However, he never knew where it was going and walked 67 batters with 26 wild pitches in 93 low-A innings in 2019. Things clicked over the winter and Medina showed much-improved control while maintaining his 100-mph velocity. The 21-year-old posted a K-BB of 32-6 in 16.2 innings in Puerto Rico winter ball.

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