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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/29/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
We have a larger-than-usual MLB schedule on this Thursday, June 29 evening as we have a 12-game mix of afternoon and evening baseball on tap! There's a wealth of value on the board so let's dive in head first and see what's in store!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BOS: (-115)
BOS: Brayan Bello | MIA: Jesus Luzardo
The Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins will put a cap on a three-game set tonight in Boston as the Fish aim for a sweep as they continue to surprise their way to a potential playoff berth in the National League.
The Marlins will send left-hander Jesus Luzardo to the bump as he's enjoyed a nice season to this point. The 25-year-old has worked to a 3.77 ERA across 16 starts, racking up strikeouts at a healthy 27.7% clip in the process. Luzardo also sports a 3.44 FIP and 3.51 SIERA which both support his rock-solid ERA figure at this juncture.
One issue with the southpaw is the fact he's posted a 5.45 ERA on the road versus a stellar 2.65 mark at home. Luzardo has yielded a .309 batting average and an .898 OPS on the road while his 4.45 FIP away from loanDepot Park in Miami is far inferior to his 2.76 mark at home.
Taking the ball for the Red Sox is right-hander Brayan Bello who will carry a 3.27 ERA into action while his 3.86 FIP and 3.95 SIERA are solid marks as well. Bello has kept the ball on the ground at an impressive 57.4% clip on the season, a mark right in line with his 56.6% career figure while he's held the opposition to three earned runs or less in each of his last 11 starts with two earned runs or fewer surrendered in nine of his last 11 outings.
The Red Sox have had their way with left-handed pitching this season. The club enters tonight's contest sporting a .337 wOBA off of lefties this season, a mark good enough for sixth in all of baseball. On the flip side, the Marlins sit 19th with a .307 wOBA versus right-handed pitching. Winners of four straight, the Marlins are an impressive 25-16 at home while their 22-18 mark on the road doesn't stack up with their work in their home ballpark.
Add it up and the Red Sox should be able to salvage one game in this series and avoid the sweep tonight on home soil.
Pick: Red Sox moneyline (-115, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYM: (-190)
MIL: Adrian Houser| NYM: Max Scherzer
It's the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets getting together Thursday night as the Mets look to salvage a series split on their home turf.
Getting the ball for the home side is future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer who isn't exactly enjoying his best season. The fiery right-hander enters this one sporting a 3.95 ERA, 4.13 FIP, and 3.70 SIERA, all of which fall well below the loft standard he has set for himself over the years. His strikeout rate has dipped to 26.2%, although his hard-hit rate if 33.9% isn't much above this 32.2% career mark (since 2015).
On the other side is fellow right-hander Adrian Houser who makes his first start since June 9 after coming out of the bullpen in his last two outings. Houser's brief tenure in the bullpen has resulted in five innings of one-run ball but he allowed five earned runs or more in two of his last three starts while he carries a 4.33 ERA into this one as a starter versus a 1.80 mark as a reliever.
The Mets carry an offensive advantage into tonight's contest as they sit 17th with a .314 wOBA versus righties with the Brewers sitting in a share of 24th with a .302 mark against right-handed pitching. It's certainly not a large gap, but a gap indeed.
While he hasn't been vintage Mad Max, it's worth backing the bulldog in this matchup tonight. Scherzer does own a 2.95 ERA at home versus a 4.38 mark on the road while hitters are hitting just .211 with a .577 OPS against him at Citi Field.
I'm not giving into the steep moneyline price but let's go for the run line as the Mets should take this one by at least a pair of runs tonight.
Pick: Mets run line (+110, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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