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Kyle's fantasy football Superflex (2QB) sleepers and Superflex tight end draft targets. He identifies top fantasy football TE value picks as well as sleepers.
The 2022 fantasy football arena when it came to tight ends was like navigating a barren wasteland. Put it this way: you either had the legendary Travis Kelce in your arsenal or you were stuck in tight end purgatory. At 33, the man is still out there running routes like he's sipping from the Fountain of Youth, while the rest look like they are trudging through the Desert of Despair. Mark Andrews and George Kittle? They limped through, and just when Andrews was ready for a late-season playoff run, bam, his QB Lamar Jackson went down for the final five games. T.J. Hockenson's season in Detroit started like a snail race until Minnesota threw him a lifeline. And Kyle Pitts? Well, let's just say between Marcus Mariota's lackluster throws and an injury, it wasn’t exactly a banner year for the promising youngster.
While the chasm between Kelce and the rest of the top-tier tight ends last season was like comparing a luxury cruise to a rowboat, it's improbable we'll witness that same discrepancy this year as Andrews, Darren Waller, Hockenson, and even Kyle Pitts look formidable. However, giving Kelce the cold shoulder isn't the move either. It boils down to your team's architecture and the gems you can find at their ADP. 2023's fresh crop of rookie tight ends? Some scouts are calling it the crème de la crème. Yet, their ability to rapidly adapt to the NFL's pace and still churn out fantasy gold remains in question.
Here's my golden rule when it comes to tight ends in Superflex: if you are going early-round QB, it's tough to also take an early TE due to the reality that your RBs and WRs will be severely behind the rest of your league mates. There are hidden treasure tight ends lurking in later rounds and a couple of starlets in the early ones. The trick? Knowing your league's settings and scoring. Standard and half PPR are not as sizzling as on FFPC, where you’re dealing with a full PPR - TE Premium scoring, making tight ends the belle of the ball. That said, roping in an elite tight end at value could be your golden ticket to sail smoothly through those playoff waters in Weeks 15-17. Average Draft Position based on average ADP from August 15, 2023, to August 25, 2023, on Yahoo, ESPN, CBS Sports, Sleeper, Fantrax, and FleaFlicker.
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Superflex Fantasy Football Tight End Draft Strategy
How many spots your Superflex league starts will have a big impact on how you should prioritize tight ends in your draft. Is it PPR? Is it TE Premium? How many starting spots?
In smaller leagues: 1-QB, 2-RB, 2-WR, 1-TE, 1-Flex, 1-Superflex, then a tight end makes up a bigger portion of your weekly scoring and matters more. But in deeper formats: 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, 2-Flex, 1-Superflex plus a potential kicker or defense. Then, tight end could only make up 8-10% of your league's weekly scoring, making the position less valuable.
Having Travis Kelce was an absolute cheat code last year, but it's not likely that he will outscore all of the other tight ends in the fantasy landscape by over 100 points again. How the rest of your league drafts, as well as the overall scoring settings, should be an indicator of how to play the tight end position.
If you decide to wait on a tight end, my friend: Andrew Cooper over at Fantasy Alarm has a simple Yin-Yang TE strategy. The goal is to draft a safer TE with a highly weekly floor (Pat Freiermuth or Hunter Henry) and pair them up with a riskier, but higher-upside type of play (Dalton Kincaid or Trey McBride) to maximize your weekly ceiling without spending early draft capital. Now, let's dive into some preferred TE targets and sleepers!
Tight End Superflex Fantasy Football Targets
Darren Waller, New York Giants
TE4, 52.2 ADP
There's this whole recency bias issue around Darren Waller, isn't there? The guy's been sidelined quite a bit -- suiting up for just 20 out of a possible 34 showdowns in the last couple of seasons. But here’s the kicker: Waller's hitting 31 this September, and still runs the field like he's on an energy drink binge, boasting an impressive 13.9 yards per catch last year.
Fast forward, the Giants snagged him in a spring trade, coughing up only a third-round pick. Lucky for Waller, he's jumping ship from the sinking Raiders to a resurgent Giants offense, where he'll be in cahoots with Brian Daboll and the ever-evolving Daniel Jones (P.S. he's a better QB than you think).
Now, with the Giants' WR group looking more like a side dish than the main course, it wouldn’t be a leap to assume Waller could top the team's target list this year. Roll back to 2019 and 2020, and you'll see Waller racking up almost 100 catches, over 1,100 yards, and six TDs per season.
While it might be wishful thinking to expect those numbers again, remember this: Waller is that dynamo tight end who cannot only stretch the field but turn into a YAC monster as well. The Waller-Jones combo? That's like getting a gourmet meal on a fast food budget for 2023.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
TE6, 57.9 ADP
Alright, alright. I feel you -- last year stung like lemon juice on a paper cut. But hear me out. Kyle Pitts had to weather the storm with Marcus Mariota slinging the ball and then got side-swiped with a season-ending injury. While Arthur Smith might have a wee bit of an obsession with running the ball that could make us raise an eyebrow at the Falcons' passing game in 2023, let's not forget -- Pitts isn't just some player. The dude's like a superhero in cleats, with the potential to redefine the TE role entirely.
Poor Kyle Pitts -- last season threw more curveballs at him than a major league pitcher. The real kicker? His laughably low number of catchable passes. Out of 58 throws his way, a jaw-dropping 33 were about as catchable as a greased pig, per PFF stats. That's a whopping 59% of his targets. And if you're ranking players with at least 50 targets, Pitts sat (or rather suffered) at the top. In the realm of terrible, that's hitting rock bottom. Things can't get any worse in 2023, can they?
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
TE8, 81.5 ADP
Alright, here's the scoop: Pat Freiermuth might not always turn heads with the razzle-dazzle, but call him Mr. Consistency. Zooming into his first two seasons, the Muth sits pretty at eighth overall in receptions from a tight end. He's brushing shoulders with legends like Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle, and Jimmy Graham. To put numbers to it, last season saw the Muth hauling in 96 targets, 63 receptions, 732 yards, and two TDs.
While he may not rival the starry potential of Mark Andrews or Darren Waller, he's like that comfort food -- reliable. In the fantasy universe, he's a volume gem that generally gives us a higher weekly floor. So if you're not feeling grabbing an elite TE early on, swiping right on Freiermuth in Round 9 and partnering him with one or two high-ceiling tight ends later could be a slick move. With matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16 and the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17, the playoff forecast looks promising for Freiermuth.
Tight End Superflex Fantasy Football Sleepers
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
TE14, 130.0 ADP
Alright, let's break it down: The Dalton Kincaid stock is heating up faster than a kettle left on the burner. Sure, Dawson Knox has practically etched his name as the Bills’ TE1. But hey, let's not box Kincaid into the typical tight end mold; the guy's practically a wide receiver in disguise.
This move is like handing the Bills a Swiss Army knife, letting them position Kincaid in the slot, and putting defenses in a pickle. Do they field an extra DB to counter Kincaid's receiving prowess, or do they risk him easily outclassing an LB in coverage? Either way, it's a win-win for Buffalo -- either they run the ball against an unstacked box or exploit the mismatch.
Here's the tea: NFL defenses are switching up the game, playing safe, and urging offenses to take baby steps down the field. Defensive coordinators are now fine with doling out five-yard treats -- because their number nerds are screaming, "No quick touchdowns or big plays!"
In this chess match, some offenses shifting to a 12-personnel approach is the genius counter move. That’s why our boy Kincaid could be this year’s sneaky cheat code in the tight end department. But here's the rub for fantasy fiends, Kincaid’s challenge isn’t about skill. It’s all about him seeing 60%-plus of the snaps. If he does that, you will like what you see on the stat sheet.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
TE15, 130.3 ADP
Chigoziem Okonkwo is a tough evaluation this year. He's in his second year and we don't have a large body of work to go off of, but he led all NFL TEs in yards per route run last season. According to PFF, Okonkwo finished as the TE7 from Weeks 12-18, had at least four targets in every game, and was an efficient tight end who received an 84.6 receiving grade.
The problem? The Titans signed free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins and already featured another talented WR in Treylon Burks. Tennessee has ranked low in pass attempts in each of the last few seasons, finishing 30th, 26th, 30th, 31st, and 31st from 2018-2022 with just 456 pass attempts last year.
Ryan Tannehill is now 35 and is good enough to get the job done, but it seems unlikely to think he could support three different players for fantasy when we know RB Derrick Henry will still get his. Nonetheless, Okonkwo has a ton of talent and plenty of contingent upside if either of the WRs were to miss any time. He's worth a late dart throw just in case based on his impressive 2022 metrics alone.
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
TE19, 156.5 ADP
Like Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta is just a rookie. We know the old narrative about how rookie tight ends don't produce much for fantasy, but the 2023 rookie TE class might be different. It was one that the scouts raved about, potentially dubbing it as the deepest TE class ever. LaPorta comes from Iowa, which has already produced talented TEs in Kirk Ferentz's system like T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Noah Fant, and the talented Dallas Clark.
LaPorta was the Hawkeyes' entire offense in the 2022 college football season where he posted 58 receptions for 657 yards and one TD. While this might not seem impressive, it's easy to forget just how much of an abomination the Hawkeyes' offense was.
In Detroit, LaPorta could very easily become the No. 2 target in the passing game with WR Jameson Williams suspended for the first six weeks of the season. LaPorta flashed some impressive metrics at the NFL Combine: a 4.59 40-yard dash time, a 6.91 three-cone drill, and a 10'3" broad jump. In terms of metrics, this put him in the 91st, 90th, and 89th percentile among TEs in NFL Combine history. He's a very athletic TE who could make big plays and immediately thrive in the high-powered Lions offense.
Was there anyone you felt was left off this list? Superflex drafts can be challenging and no two will be exactly alike. The key is to stay flexible and trust your tiers. Feel free to get at me on Twitter and best of luck in fantasy football this season!
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