X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Tight End Breakouts for 2022 Fantasy Football

Fantasy football tight end breakouts and draft sleepers for 2022. Rob's favorite TE draft targets based on early ADP.

Fantasy managers are always on the lookout for the next big thing, the next breakout. These are the guys that are typically found in the middle to later rounds of your fantasy drafts and they are often coined with the term – league winner. These can be difficult to predict; after all, we're attempting to predict a player doing something they haven't done yet in their careers.

Breakouts can come in all shapes and sizes. Last season, we saw Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp go from quality WR2s to elite WR1s. These kinds of breakouts are rare, but certainly way more coveted. Predicting tight end breakouts is even more difficult because the reality is only the top-10 matter and that might even be generous. The tight end position is bleak, only five players averaged 10 half-PPR PPG last season. There were another 12 guys that averaged between 7–9.9 points.

The margin for tight ends actually mattering is extremely small. Going from TE20 to TE13 isn't really what we're looking for because it simply doesn't move the needle. Here we're going to be identifying a few tight ends who have the potential to break into the top-10 and become someone fantasy managers can feel comfortable starting in their lineup on a weekly basis.

Editor's Note: Find sleeper picks, undervalued ADPs, and draft targets to help you dominate your fantasy football drafts. Try our free who to draft tool for personalized recommendations.

 

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

The former first-round pick entered the NFL in 2017 with a lot of promise and upside. He was extremely athletic and put up 698 yards and eight touchdowns as a junior at the University of Miami. Unfortunately, he struggled to make much of an impact with the Browns in five seasons. His best season was in his sophomore season when he finished with 56 catches, 639 yards, and four touchdowns. He finished as the TE9 on the season, but a PPG average of just 7.7 left much to be desired and like so many tight ends, didn't really move the needle. There were 10 other tight ends who scored between 6.7–8.0 PPG.

However, he spent his five seasons in Cleveland catching passes from DeShone Kizer, Tyrod Taylor, and Baker Mayfield. He's also played with three different head coaches and offensive coordinators in five seasons, so there's never been a whole lot of consistency for Njoku. After struggling for the first three seasons with injuries – he missed 12 games in his third season – and general ineffectiveness, the Browns signed Austin Hooper to a big contract prior to the 2020 season. In two seasons, he has 780 receiving yards total, so needless to say he's struggled as well.

Going into the 2022 season, however, Njoku was slapped with the franchise tag, and Austin Hooper was released. It looks as though the Browns are finally going to give the former Miami standout a chance to be the No. 1 tight end. It couldn't have come at a better time either. There's plenty of criticism to go around regarding the addition of Deshaun Watson, but there's no debating the kind of on-the-field benefits he brings to the team at quarterback. Mayfield has a career 87.8 quarter rating, while Watson is all the way up at 104.5. He's going to make a considerable difference for the whole offense.

The Browns traded for Amari Cooper, but the wealth of pass-catchers behind him leaves a lot to be desired. It's not out of the question, at least right now, that Njoku could end up being No. 2 in total targets. He'll be competing with Donovan Peoples-Jones and Anthony Schwartz, which isn't exactly imposing. At some point, however, it's on Njoku to take advantage of his opportunity and the 2022 season will likely be his last chance to seize this chance.

Among tight ends who had 50 targets last season, Njoku was fifth in yards per reception and was one of only five tight ends with more than one reception of 40 or more yards. He also ranked fifth in yards per target among tight ends and averaged 2.02 fantasy points per target, which ranked sixth.

The problem for the fifth-year player wasn't his efficiency, but rather his opportunity. His route participation rate was just 56.6%, which ranked 23rd among tight ends, which fell mostly in line with his 26th-ranked target share at 11.4%. If given the opportunity to start for the Browns in 2022 and allowed to be a play-maker in the passing game, the efficiency metrics he posted in 2021 could lead to a breakout season if he's able to increase his volume. In Cleveland, he'll have ample opportunity to do that and for the first time in his career, he'll be playing in an elite offense. The touchdown upside alone should have fantasy managers intrigued, but if he can become Watson's No. 2 target behind Cooper, he'll easily outplay his ADP.

 

Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos

The Russell Wilson trade was one thing fantasy managers were going to be excited about Albert O because of that alone. Add to it that Noah Fant was moved to Seattle and fantasy managers have officially claimed their anonymous late-round breakout tight end. Similar to Njoku, the former Missouri standout was incredibly efficient last season. The issue for him was a lack of playing time and a mediocre offense. Both issues were taken care of in one transaction.

As a true freshman at Missouri, he racked up over 400 yards and 11 touchdowns, an incredibly impressive feat for a rookie tight end. He followed that up with two other seasons of at least six touchdowns. He fell to the fourth round after sophomore and junior seasons where his progression seemed to stall out. However, much like his freshmen season at Missouri, Albert O showed out when given the chance as a freshman for the Broncos.

His 1.94 yard per route run average ranked fifth among tight ends with at least 40 targets. He ranked higher than Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, and Darren Waller. There are always some concerns with such a small sample size, but his efficiency was otherwise impressive. His 82.5% catch rate ranked first among tight ends with 40 targets and he also ranked second with a 7.5 yard after the catch per reception average.

For fantasy purposes, he ranked fourth, averaging 0.57 points per route run. He also averaged 1.90 fantasy points per target, which ranked 13th. With a starting role in the Denver offense and with Russell Wilson behind center, Albert O will find himself as one of the favorite breakouts among the fantasy community, which will, unfortunately, raise his ADP, but the upside is clear.

 

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Unlike the other two players on the list so far, Kmet was not efficient – not even close. However, to be fair, no one on the Bears was efficient. Matt Nagy bounced between Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, and Justin Fields. The offense never got on track. For all intents and purposes, it was an unmitigated disaster. What shouldn't be lost in all of that dysfunction was the sizable role Kmet held in the offense.

While he didn't rank in the top-10 in many efficiency metrics, from a pure volume standpoint, there's a lot to like about Kmet heading into 2021. For starters, the depth chart in Chicago is laughably bad. Right now, Equanimeous St. Brown and Bryon Pringle are slated to be starting receivers in an 11-personnel package. Justin Fields won't have very many options behind Darnell Mooney or Kmet and it will likely lead to a high target share for both players. The stats below are courtesy of PlayerProfiler.

Metric  Total TE Rank
Snap Share 83.7% 6th
Slot Snaps 253 5th
Routes Run 395 14th
Route Participation 72.9% 14th
Air Yards 737 9th
Average Target Distance 7.9 10th
Deep Targets 9 6th
Target Rate 23.5% 12th
Unrealized Air Yards 371 7th

Fantasy managers should expect the Chicago offense to be slightly better in 2022. With Nagy gone, the expectation is the offense will be better fitted to Justin Fields' talents. While expecting the offense to be efficient would be a long-shot bet, they should be better than last season. Any improvement in regards to the quarterback play could pay huge dividends for Kmet, especially with such a heavy workload incoming.

 

Honorable Mention

Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings

Smith missed all of 2021 due to a knee injury and it allowed Tyler Conklin to be the full-time starter. He racked up 87 targets, 61 receptions, 593 yards, and three touchdowns. That amounted to just a 6.6 PPG average in half-PPR scoring, but 87 is a healthy target total for a tight end. With his 4.63 40-yard dash time, Smith has more upside than Conklin due to his speed. With Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen in Minnesota, it'll be tough for Smith to command a large enough target share to really breakout, but Thielen is getting older and older each season. With a new head coach, Kevin O'Connell, coming over from the Rams, the Vikings may shift to a more pass-heavy approach.

Brevin Jordan, Houston Texans

Jordan received more and more playing time as the season went on and he ended the 2021 season with a solid streak of games despite being a rookie who was inactive for the beginning of the season. Right now, the Texans are desperate for playmakers in their offense and if Jordan is able to distinguish himself from Nico Collins and company, Jordan could become a target-driven tight end. With the expectation the Texans will once again field a below-average offense, Jordan is unlikely to score enough touchdowns to truly breakout. However, Logan Thomas had a huge year in 2020 despite playing for the ever disappointing Washington franchise. The volume pays off at tight end and Jordan could find himself with a lot of it.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Freiermuth was a TE1 last season, but that came off the back of seven touchdowns on just 60 receptions. His 11.7% touchdown rate will be hard to duplicate and with Mitchel Trubisky at quarterback, fantasy managers are likely worried about how many fantasy-relevant receivers he can support, which is a fair concern. However, in PPR leagues, Freiermuth could become someone that is able to provide fantasy managers with a steady flow of targets each week.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Back in Action to Begin Second Half
Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF