Three Important Trends to Know for Late-Season Fantasy Football

Analyst Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) breaks down important trends to know for the second-half of the fantasy football season. Players mentioned: Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Reagor, and Ezekiel Elliott.

The second half of the fantasy football season has been underway for a few weeks now and it is pertinent that we note some trends that can determine where/how to perceive certain players. Teams tend to alternate usage of certain guys throughout the season as teams either hit a skid or stride. Rookies often see more work as the season goes on and vets see their usage tick down if their team is bad enough.

While some of these trends are more obvious than others, they are still important to note as to how your decision-making process goes into the fantasy playoff weeks.

If you have any questions/concerns, or just happen to like my takes, feel free to follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon and shoot something over any time!

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Jalen Reagor: Breakout Imminent

Jalen Reagor's snaps, catch rate, and yards-per-target have been escalating over the past three games since his return from a torn thumb ligament. While he has not had any sort of boom game since, he is getting better and stronger.

Here are some key stats over the past three games:

Snaps: 73%, 88%, 93%
Catch rate: 50%, 57.1%, 80%
YPT: 2.67, 6.71, 10.4

Obviously, the numbers here will not increase much further, such as snap count, and some even will dip (catch rate). The belief to have is that Reagor is merely just an uptick in target-share away from becoming and every-week starter. There is a lot of discussion online as to whether the Eagles made a mistake in drafting Reagor over Justin Jefferson and that talk is extremely premature despite Jefferson's acumen and production as well as Reagor's early injury. Lest we forget that Reagor is a wizard in the open-field and can produce when given the opportunity. The Eagles' offense has been such a mess that the perception upon the 20th-overall pick is massively skewed. It's not his fault that his thumb wasn't fully attached to his hand after Week 2!

I am not going to predict that Reagor is bound to go off Monday night versus the Seahawks due to this because game-to-game variance makes us all look like fools but there is a breakout on the horizon as long as he stays healthy and the Eagles utilize him properly.

Ezekiel Elliott: No Longer a Bell-Cow

Ezekial Elliot played in at least 82% of the Cowboys' offensive snaps in each of the team's first five games but has failed to crack even 80% in any of the games since. This has directly coincided with Dak Prescott's absence and should continue to be a trend for the rest of the season given how poor the Cowboys are. He saw the lowest opportunity-share of carries+targets in Week 12 versus the Washington Football team and has not cracked 25 since Week 3 (at least 25 through first three weeks). He has not seen more than three targets in a single game since Week 6.

Tony Pollard's involvement increased in Week 4 and has not been subdued since. Elliot really has not given the team a reason to feature him more either with six fumbles on the season. He is still a workhorse relative to the position, but not a bell-cow. The difference is important given that his floor on a bad team, is much, much lower.

While more than one factor comes into play determining why this occurred, Elliot managers have to consider sitting him in certain weeks/matchups moving forward. Start your studs gets thrown out the window in cases like this, especially now with offensive linemen Zack Martin and Cam Erving out for the foreseeable future.

Jerry Jeudy: At Least 8 Targets Each Game Since W8

Jeudy is averaging 10 targets per game since Week 8 and has played in at least 84% of the Broncos' offensive snaps in three of four games in this span. Through the first six weeks of the season, he was sitting just around six targets per game. Jeudy is a stellar WR who has had the misfortune of being stuck with a QB like Drew Lock. However, poor QB play can be navigated in fantasy with volume (just ask Allen Robinson).

Jeudy has a few really solid games throughout the year but the consistency has not been there thanks to fluctuating volume. This recent stretch of performances should make managers optimistic enough to trust him in lineups without much hesitation assuming he is healthy.

Tim Patrick has been dealing with a hamstring issue and did miss a game, but KJ Hamler came in and took a good bit of targets as well versus Atlanta. Juedy's most recent outing was disappointing with just three receptions for 37 yards on eight targets, the Dolphins secondary happens to be one of the best and their offense did not make the game too competitive. It was bad enough that they had to bench their rookie QB, Tua Tagovailoa. Jeudy's floor is seemingly established right now and given his prowess, he can break off a big catch at any moment. He is start-able in fantasy moving forward outside of ridiculously tough matchups.

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